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In Australia, stalled migration is bad news as faltering economy heads for first recession in 30 years

Reuters via South China Morning Post — Sun, 31 May 2020 06:14:32 +0000

Net immigration is expected to fall 85 percent in the financial year to June 2021, curbing demand for everything from cars and property to education and wedding rings
Immigration is a politically divisive topic in Australia but there is a broad consensus the country needs its 200,000 to 300,000 annual intake to grow consumption demand and fill skills shortages

Australia’s three decades of uninterrupted prosperity are coming to an abrupt end as the global coronavirus pandemic crashes one of its most lucrative sources of income: immigration.

The country has been successful in managing the outbreak and reopening its A$2 trillion (US$1.33 trillion) economy, thanks in part to an early closure of its borders.

But the policy has led to a halt in mass immigration – a key source of consumer demand, labor, and growth – in an economy which is facing its first recession since the early 1990s

Net immigration, including international students and those on skilled worker visas, is expected to fall 85 percent in the financial year to June 2021, curbing demand for everything from cars and property to education and wedding rings.

Gurmeet Tuli, who owns a jewelry store in the Sydney suburb of Parramatta, said his business is already hurting in a neighborhood that is home to tens of thousands of migrants.

“My main clientele is young people who come here to study, they find work here and settle down, fall in love and want to get married,” Tuli said. “I have not sold a single diamond ring in the past two months,” he added, noting business is down about 40 percent so far this year.

So critical is migration to Australia that analysts reckon the economy would have slipped into a recession last year without new arrivals to boost population growth.

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver estimates that population growth in recent years has boosted the economy by about one percentage point per year. But as migration stalls, education, housing, and tourism sectors are seen among the worst hit.

The drought in international student arrivals, which in recent years made up about 40 percent of the migrant intake, is expected to hit the A$37 billion education sector, Australia’s second-largest services export after tourism.

A fall in new arrivals could also dampen the construction boom in Australia’s all-important housing sector, which has been fuelled by migrants in big cities like Sydney and Melbourne.

Even though immigration is a politically divisive topic in Australia, there is a broad recognition that the country needs its 200,000 to 300,000 annual intake to grow consumption demand and fill skills shortages in various sectors.

While a large share of these migrants arrive on what is considered “temporary” visas, many later gain permanent residency and employment, adding to long-term population growth.

Australia’s population would grow an average 1.6 percent annually over the decade to 2027, according to the latest official projections from 2018. Without immigration, it was forecast to grow only 0.5 percent.

“During a slowdown and when the unemployment rate is high there is popular pressure to slow down migration,” AMP Capital’s Oliver said. “But if we want the economy working back again, we need migration to return.”

Concerns over immigration range from sustainability and housing affordability to more populist complaints about social integration and foreigners taking local jobs.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said last week Australia needed 160,000 to 210,000 arrivals to sustain GDP per capita growth, and acknowledged the great uncertainty current restrictions cast over the outlook.

“It’s going to be one of the real impacts of this crisis because our borders aren’t opening any time soon,” he said.

That has prompted urgent calls for solutions from some businesses and political leaders.

The drought in international student arrivals, which in recent years made up about 40 percent of the migrant intake, is expected to hit the A$37 billion education sector. Photo: EPA

The premier of New South Wales, Gladys Berejiklian, is lobbying her federal counterparts to allow international students in to rescue universities, which contribute A$13 billion to the economy of the country’s most populous state.

Australia’s government is also working with New Zealand to establish a “Trans-Tasman bubble” that would reopen the movement of people between the two closely integrated economies.

New Zealand is a large source of labor for Australia, home to about 600,000 Kiwi expatriates.

To be sure, Australia still enjoys its “lucky country” status, benefiting from resilient global demand for some commodities and having been able to reopen large parts of the economy sooner than many other advanced economies.

But even though Australia’s central bank expects the economy to expand 6 percent next year after a projected 6 percent contraction in 2020, analysts and businesses warn a sustained recovery is unlikely without the full resumption of immigration.

Over the years, immigration has helped transform Australia’s retail and urban landscape, reviving down-at-heel suburban high streets, spurring swanky commercial property development, and creating new consumer markets.

Gotcha Fresh Tea is one of a host of bubble tea franchises that has expanded rapidly in Australia, with demand fuelled in large part by international students but also by growing interest for the Asian tapioca beverage from the wider community.

Orlando Sanpo, business development manager at EFC Group Australia, the chain’s franchiser, said the student freeze has hit sales by up to 80 percent in some downtown stores and even closed an outlet at a Sydney campus.

“We need people to come back to the country,” Sanpo said.

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Source URL: https://scmp.com/news/asia/australasia/article/3086938/australia-stalled-migration-bad-news-faltering-economy-heads

Links[1] https://www.scmp.com/topics/australian-economy

[2] https://www.scmp.com/topics/coronavirus-pandemic-all-stories

[3] https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/australasia/article/3078444/coronavirus-australia-wants-all-visitors-and-temporary-visa

[4] https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3077317/coronavirus-leaves-australian-economy-facing-first-recession-30

[5] https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/people/article/3086666/asians-australia-collective-memory-racial-trauma

[6] https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3048769/were-cash-cows-stranded-chinese-students-upset-after-australias

[7] https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3074105/coronavirus-japan-invalidate-3-million-visas-held-chinese-hong

[8] https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3085732/chinese-tourists-travel-bubbles-how-asia-can-refloat-its

[9] https://www.scmp.com/china-ai-report/?utm_source=scmp&utm_medium=content&utm_campaign=CSB-I-InHouse-research_ai_report-scmp-na-na-66

Source: https://www.scmp.com/print/news/asia/australasia/article/3086938/australia-stalled-migration-bad-news-faltering-economy-heads

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Australia Closes Borders in Response to Coronavirus Crisis

Phil Mercer — Fri, 20 Mar 2020 17:49:56 +0000

Travelers wait in line at a Virgin Australia Airlines counter at Kingsford Smith International Airport, amid the coronavirus outbreak, in Sydney, Australia, March 18, 2020.

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SYDNEY – Australia is becoming a fortress. It is banning foreign travelers beginning Friday as it tries to stop the spread of the new coronavirus. International tourists are scrambling to leave Australia as concerns mount over flight cancellations and border closures. Australia now has more than 700 confirmed cases of COVID-19.

Similar measures already are in place in New Zealand.

Australia had previously barred entry to passengers flying from China, Iran, South Korea and Italy.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison says a broader blanket ban is needed to protect the country from the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

“The overwhelming proportion of cases in Australia have been imported and the measures we have put in place have obviously had an impact on that, and this is a further measure now that will ensure that that can be further enhanced,” Morrison said.

Many Australians are stranded overseas. Their fear and anxieties about returning are shared by foreign tourists in Australia.

Many are scrambling to leave Australia as concerns mount over flight cancellations and border closures because of the coronavirus outbreak.

In Sydney, Emily Roberston, a traveler from England, wants to fly home as soon as she can.

“Huge worry, like, other side of the world with my family and stuff and we have had quite a few cases near where we live (in England), so, yeah, it is quite difficult to like process it and keep calm. Obviously, like, flights are quite difficult to get at the moment and quite expensive so for, like, backpackers. It is not a particularly ideal situation,” Roberston said.

The Reserve Bank in Australia this week cut interest rates to a record low 0.25% in a dramatic bid to stave off recession in an ailing economy. Panicked investors have wiped billions of dollars of value off the Australian stock market.

Source: https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/australia-closes-borders-response-coronavirus-crisis

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Australia tells citizens to reconsider all foreign travel amid coronavirus pandemic

The Straits Times — Fri, 13 Mar 2020 00:00:43 +0000

The Australian government had previously advised against travel to regional epicentres in China, Italy, South Korea and Iran.PHOTO: EPA-EFE

SYDNEY (AFP) – Australia on Friday (March 13) warned citizens the coronavirus pandemic is now so widespread that they should reconsider all foreign travel, as the government stepped up measures to slow the spread of the disease.

“We now advise all Australians to reconsider your need to travel overseas at this time, regardless of your destination, age or health,” Prime Minister Scott Morrison said.

The government had previously advised against travel to regional epicenters in China, Italy, South Korea, and Iran.

After some reluctance, Mr. Morrison said a growing number of examples of community transmission within Australia also meant that the government would soon move to halt events of more than 500 people.

“By Monday,” he said, “we will be advising against organized non-essential gatherings of persons of 500 people or greater.”

Just hours earlier, Mr. Morrison had urged Australians to go to sports matches and boasted he would do the same over the weekend.

His comments came even as the Formula One Grand Prix in Melbourne was canceled and an international cricket fixture against New Zealand in Sydney was played behind closed doors.

Mr. Morrison said the measures were precautionary and insisted he would still go to a rugby league match on Saturday as planned.

“The fact that I would still be going on Saturday speaks not just to my passion for my beloved Sharks, it might be the last game I get to go to for a long time. That’s fine,” he said.

Australia has 184 confirmed cases of Covid-19, a number that has been increasing daily, and has seen three deaths.

Source:https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/australianz/australia-tells-citizens-to-reconsider-all-foreign-travel-amid-coronavirus-pandemic

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Australians on southeast coast urged to flee as fire risk escalates

AP via LA Times — Thu, 09 Jan 2020 09:17:00 +0000

A firefighter tackles a wildfire south of Nowra, Australia, earlier this week. Residents of Nowra, Narooma and Batemans Bay were told that winds were likely to once again drive blazes toward the coast. –(AFP/Getty Images)

TOMERONG, Australia —

Residents in the path of wildfires razing southeast Australia were urged to evacuate on Thursday if they don’t intend to defend their homes, as hot and windy conditions are forecast to escalate the danger over the next two days.

The Rural Fire Service in New South Wales state has told fire-weary residents in the coastal towns of Nowra, Narooma and Batemans Bay south of Sydney that winds were likely to once again drive blazes toward the coast. Vacationers in the area have retreated to beaches and into the ocean in recent weeks as destructive fires and choking smoke have encroached on the tourist towns, scorching sand dunes in some places.

In neighboring Victoria state, fire-threatened populations were urged to act quickly on evacuation warnings.

“We can’t guarantee your safety and we don’t want to be putting emergency services — whether it be volunteers or paid staff — we do not want to put them in harm’s way because people didn’t follow the advice that was given,” Victoria Premier Daniel Andrews said.

The unprecedented fire crisis in southeast Australia that has claimed at least 26 lives since September, destroyed more than 2,000 homes and shrouded major cities in smoke has focused many Australians on how the nation adapts to climate change. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has come under withering criticism both at home and abroad for downplaying the need for his government to address climate change, which experts say helps supercharge the blazes.

Last year was Australia’s hottest and driest on record. The Bureau of Meteorology’s head of climate monitoring, Karl Braganza, said that although the country’s rainfall was expected to pick up a bit, it wouldn’t be enough to snuff out the fires anytime soon.

“Unfortunately, we’re not looking at widespread, above-average rainfalls at this stage,” he said. “That’s really what we need to put the fires out fairly quickly. It is going to be a campaign, in terms of the fires. We are not looking at a short and sharp end to the event — it looks like something that we will have to persist with for some time.”

The New South Wales government responded to the crisis on Thursday by announcing an additional $690 million to be spent over the next two years on wildfire management and recovery.

The Australian disaster is seen by many as a harbinger for other countries of the future consequences of global warming.

Pope Francis has joined other world leaders in expressing solidarity with the Australian people.

“I’d like to ask for you all to pray to the Lord to help the [Australian] people at this difficult moment, with these powerful fires. I’m close to the Australian people,” Francis said at the end of his general audience on Wednesday, drawing applause from congregants.

Source: https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-01-08/australians-on-se-coast-urged-to-flee-as-fire-risk-escalates

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