Recession - Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association

Wall Street bloodbath: Dow, Nasdaq plummet as renewed recession fears trigger global sell-off

Ariel Zilber | New York Post — Mon, 05 Aug 2024 21:11:38 +0000

Wall Street’s main indexes nosedived on Monday, as fears of the United States tipping into recession following weak economic data last week rippled through global markets.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Index plunged more than 1,100 points after the opening bell, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 5% after entering correction territory last week.

Both indexes fell for the third straight day. The Dow closed at 38,703.27, down 1,033.99, or 2.6% — its biggest daily loss since September 2022. The Nasdaq slid 576 points, or 3.4% to 576.08.

The declines followed broad sell-offs overseas, with the Tokyo-based Nikkei index suffering its worst single-day retreat since the infamous “Black Monday” crash of 1987 — closing 12.4% lower — while European stocks fell to near six-month lows.

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Source: https://nypost.com/2024/08/05/business/bloodbath-on-wall-street-as-dow-nasdaq-futures-plunge-amid-recession-fears/

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The US economy is booming — but Japan and the UK just slipped into recession. Here’s why.

George Glover | Business Insider — Thu, 15 Feb 2024 20:32:15 +0000

The US economy managed to shake off Wall Street’s gloomy forecasts and dodge a long-predicted slump last year — but the same can’t be said for two other members of the G7.

Japan and the UK are both officially in recession, according to figures published Thursday, after Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell for two consecutive quarters to close out 2023.

Here’s why the world’s fourth and sixth-largest economies are struggling, even as the US goes from strength to strength.

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Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-japan-uk-low-growth-yen-pound-rishi-sunak-2024-2?op=1

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Treasury bond yield inversion signals economic pain

Eric Revell | Fox Business — Thu, 09 Mar 2023 03:07:26 +0000

Rising yields on shorter-term Treasurys may signal correction in equity markets or recession

Hawkish comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell about efforts to tame inflation have deepened the inversion of the bond yield curve for U.S. Treasury securities, which many on Wall Street have come to view as a leading indicator of an upcoming recession.

Powell delivered the Fed’s semi-annual update to Congress on monetary policy this week and told lawmakers that the central bank will need to raise interest rates higher than previously expected because inflation has remained persistently high despite a series of rate hikes amid strong economic growth.

One of the most closely watched spreads on the yield curve is that between the two-year and 10-year Treasury notes, which is referred to as the “2/10 spread” as shorthand. The 2/10 spread has been inverted in July 2022 – just four months after the Fed began to raise rates last March.

The 2/10 spread reached negative 103.1 basis points on Tuesday – the largest inversion between those securities since September 1981 when the economy was in a recession as the Fed was raising interest rates to tamp down rampant inflation – and widened to about 107 basis points Wednesday.

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Source: https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/treasury-bond-yield-inversion-signals-economic-pain

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European Central Bank announces largest interest rate hike in bid to fight inflation

Euronews — Thu, 22 Sep 2022 14:53:14 +0000

The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday announced a record rate hike in a bid to stifle record inflation across the euro area.

The ECB’s three key interest rates were each raised by 75 basis points.

“This major step frontloads the transition from the prevailing highly accommodative level of policy rates towards levels that will ensure the timely return of inflation to the ECB’s 2% medium-term target,” the bank’s Governing Body said in a statement.

It also flagged to markets that “over the next several meetings the Governing Council expects to raise interest rates further to dampen demand and guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations.”

The move sees the ECB follow in the policy footstep of the US Federal Reserve which carried out two jumbo rate hikes of 0.75 points in June and July.

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Source: https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/09/08/european-central-bank-announces-largest-interest-rate-hike-in-bid-to-fight-inflation

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German Inflation Climbs Back To 7.9% As ECB Readies Next Hike

Business Insider - RTTNews — Tue, 30 Aug 2022 20:03:43 +0000

(RTTNews) – Germany’s consumer price inflation accelerated more-than-expected in August, after easing in the previous two months, to its highest level in almost half a century as the European Central Bank policymakers prepare to deliver at least a 50 basis points hike in interest rates next week.

The consumer price index rose 7.9 percent year-on-year in August, faster than the 7.5 percent increase in July, preliminary figures from Destatis showed on Tuesday. That was slightly above the 7.8 percent rise economists had expected.

Headline inflation has returned to its record high 7.9 percent, previously attained in May this year. The rate is the strongest since the winter of 1973-74, when mineral oil prices rose sharply as a result of the first oil crisis.

The EU measure of inflation, the harmonized index of consumer prices or HICP, climbed 8.8 percent year-on-year after an 8.5 percent increase in the prior month. That was in line with expectations.

Destatis said significant price increases on the upstream economic levels and the interrupted supply chains as a result of the corona pandemic have had a price-driving effect.

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Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/interestrates/german-inflation-climbs-back-to-7-9-as-ecb-readies-next-hike-1031714260

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Three of Europe’s biggest economies are probably in recession — and the ECB is out of bullets

Yusuf Khan — Tue, 10 Dec 2019 11:51:07 +0000

Reuters/Jason Cairnduff

Three of Europe’s largest economies — Germany, Italy, and the UK — are either in recession or are on the verge of it, which could spell danger for the eurozone.
Germany, Europe’s industrial backbone, is stuttering. The unemployment rate has risen for the second time in three months.
The UK economy contracted for the first time since 2012, as output fell 0.2% in April to June.
Italy’s debt crisis is only being made worse by political uncertainty.
View markets Insider for more stories.

Europe could be about to hit a crisis, as three of its largest economies are tanking at the same time. What’s more, the European Central Bank looks like it’s out of bullets to fire the economy up.

What happened?

Germany is Europe’s biggest economy. Germany is very much reliant on foreign exports, which means that it’s a victim of slowing global trade from the China-US trade war.

On Wednesday, Germany reported that industrial production declined 1.5% month on month in June. According to Oxford Economics, “All the main sectors, excluding construction, fell over the month as trade tensions continued to impact the sector.”

In Q2 industrial production fell 1.9% quarter on quarter, which the economists said is “the largest quarterly decline since 2012.”

“Our German GDP indicator now points to a contraction in Q2,” as factory orders decline, it said.

That is having an effect on jobs. HSBC chief economist Stefan Schilbe wrote in a recent note that unemployment had risen in July, the second increase in three months. The slowdown, as Schilbe put it, is beginning to “leave a (modest) mark on the labor market.”

Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

The UK is not faring much better.

The UK economy contracted for the first time since 2012 in Q2, a clear sign of the effects of the uncertainty “no-deal” Brexit is having on the UK economy.

“Confidence over the health of the UK economy was dealt a gut-wrenching blow this morning,” Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM, said on Friday.

Business investment has fallen for five of the past six quarters.

“The economy has been propped up instead by the government and households,” Ranko Berich, Head of Market Analysis at Monex Europe, said in a note on Friday. “This is a plainly unsustainable situation for the economy, and highlights the extent to which Brexit has already taken a significant toll.”

The pound fell 0.4% against the US dollar on the news.

“Today’s disappointing GDP figure is set to raise alarm bells over Brexit dragging the UK economy deeper into the abyss. This unfavorable scenario may prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates sooner than anticipated, in an effort to revive the UK economy,” Otunuga said.

Pantheon Macroeconomics

Italy, meanwhile, is having a tumultuous time of its own.

On Friday, Italy’s deputy prime minister called for a no-confidence vote in its government. It sent markets plunging, and bond yields rocketing, 17 basis points to 0.225%.

Italian debt to GDP is over 130% — historically high — and it doesn’t look like it’ll improve.

“There is little that Italy’s government can do to prevent its debt ratio from rising. For a number of reasons, not least of which is its membership of the eurozone, the three paths to debt reduction – faster GDP growth, fiscal austerity, and higher inflation – are either closed off or likely to be ineffective. Accordingly, we think that Italy will eventually be forced into a debt restructuring or outright default,” Capital Economics said.

Capital Economics, Reinhart & Rogoff (2011), “From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis”, IMF, Refinitiv.

Can the ECB do anything to save this mess?

Not really.

The European Central Bank will likely cut rates in September and ease the pressure on Europe by loosening policy, but it probably won’t do the trick.

Interest rates are already negative, at -0.4%. Going further negative would create logistical problems that might, counterintuitively, reduce further bank lending (because banks would lose money by doing so). The ECB doesn’t have many weapons in its arsenal to provide a stimulus to Europe.

As a result, Europe looks pretty stuck.

Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/germany-italy-uk-are-headed-for-recession-and-ecb-is-out-of-tools-2019-8-1028435638

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Trump brushes off concerns of recession, touts strong economy

Louis Casiano | Fox News — Mon, 19 Aug 2019 10:21:49 +0000

President Trump offered an optimistic outlook of the economy Sunday and dismissed concerns of a looming recession after losses in financial markets last week and his ongoing trade war with China that some say will determine if he wins in 2020.

“I don’t think we’re having a recession,” Trump told reporters as he returned to Washington from his New Jersey golf club. “We’re doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich. I gave a tremendous tax cut and they’re loaded up with money.”

Trump has consistently touted his economic record. He continued to spread his message over Twitter on Sunday.

TRUMP ACCUSES CHINA OF ‘CURRENCY MANIPULATION’

“Our economy is the best in the world, by far. Lowest unemployment ever within almost all categories. Poised for big growth after trade deals are completed. Import prices down, China eating Tariffs. Helping targeted Farmers from big Tariff money coming in. Great future for the USA!,” he posted.

Larry Kudlow, Trump’s top economic adviser, dismissed fears of a recession and predicted the economy will perform well in the second half of 2019.

“We’re doing pretty darn well in my judgment. Let’s not be afraid of optimism,” Kudlow said, adding that consumers are earning more and are able to save and spend more.

As an economic analyst before joining the Trump administration, Kudlow was known for opposing tariffs and promoting free trade. He said Trump has taught him and others that the “China story has to be changed and reformed.”

Democratic presidential candidate Beto’ O’Rourke said Trump’s trade war with China is “hammering the hell out of farmers across this country.”

Democrats vying to unseat Trump have also criticized his handling of China.

TRUMP: CHINA DELAYING TRADE DEAL IN HOPES ‘DEMOCRAT’ STIFFS’ WILL WIN IN 2020, ALLOW ‘RIPOFF’ TO CONTINUE

“There is clearly no strategy for dealing with the trade war in a way that will actually lead to results for American farmers or American consumers,” said presidential candidate and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

Trump has maintained that his tariffs are having an effect. He said China is ready to make a trade deal, but that he isn’t..

“I’m just not ready to make a deal yet,” Trump said. “China would like to make a deal. I’m not ready.”

Last month, the Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark rate — which affects many loans for households and businesses — by a quarter-point to a range of 2 percent to 2.25 percent, the first rate cute since 2008 during the Great Recession.

“The Federal Reserve chairman should look in the mirror and say, ‘I raised rates too far, too fast, and I cost this economy a full percentage point of growth,'” said Peter Navarro, who advises Trump on trade policy, said on a series of Sunday talk shows.

He has called for the lowering of interest rates to help stabilize U.S. markets.

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Trump acknowledged a potential impact on consumers when he paused a planned 10 percent tariff hike on Chinese goods such as cell phones, video games, laptops, and some toys.

“We’re doing (it) just for Christmas season, just in case some of the tariffs could have an impact,” he said.

Navarro said there was no evidence that consumer would bear the brunt of the tariffs.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-brushes-off-concerns-of-recession-touts-strong-economy

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Weekly Update by Mark Armstrong – 16 August 2019

Mark Armstrong — Fri, 16 Aug 2019 01:05:11 +0000

Greetings from Tyler,

The Hong Kong airport is back open after being shut down completely this week, with over a thousand flights canceled. Riot police showed up in force, and Chinese officials are issuing one stern warning after another as they accumulate troops at the ready. Even though the protesters have backed away from the airport, they continue to snarl major boulevards and intersections.

These folks have lived under the British system of law all their lives. They’ve enjoyed the concept of “innocent until proven guilty,” one that we take for granted. But that is not the case in mainland China. The Hong Kongers thought they had at least until 2047 before the full weight of Chinese communism would ruin life in Hong Kong. But the proposed “extradition law,” where someone could be shipped off to the mainland when accused of a crime propelled the general population, including professionals, into the streets. If the communist Chinese get a hold of someone accused of a crime, particularly against the regime, there’s no telling what might happen to them or if anyone will ever hear from them again.

President Trump has been asked for a response to the Hong Kong standoff and his answer was, “What are we supposed to do, invade Hong Kong?” But he has indicated that any trade arrangement between China and the United States will depend on the situation being resolved humanely, and not like Tiananmen Square where people were murdered and run over with tanks.

The lack of a trade arrangement with China has contributed to some wild gyrations in the stock market. The media got really excited this week when the market fell by 800 points in a single day. When news broke of the “bond market inversion,” they could barely contain themselves. This, they told us is a harbinger of a coming recession. It was repeated endlessly on network radio breaks, in the flagship papers, and on the cable TV panel discussions.

Main street, however, isn’t Wall Street. It’s the investments in multi-national and Chinese based concerns that are taking the bath. Recession? Not likely in the U. S. unless the mainstream media can create some kind of unnecessary panic. Still not likely. A more complete discussion of this will appear in the upcoming issue of 21st Century WATCH. An economic downturn could be the one thing that might deny President Trump a second term, and that is music to the ears of a very angry and sullen media brigade.

The Trump rally in New Hampshire last night was a joyride. People are happy, smiling and optimistic, twelve thousand of them. It must really frost the news-people who’ve tripped all over each other to see who can do the best job of calling the president and all Americans who support his policies racist, planet-destroying bigots. It must be mighty depressing for the disgusted accusers in media to see these massive, enthusiastic crowds, people who aren’t buying what the mainstream is selling. And that’s another reason to smile.

And before we go, here’s one more. Members of the ‘squad’ thought they were going to breeze into Israel, rabble rouse, call Israel racist and make a big scene. That is until they were informed that they wouldn’t be admitted, announced by the Prime Minister himself. It seems Israel has a law on the books that says people calling for boycotts and the nation’s destruction aren’t to be admitted. But Rashida Tlaib, (possibly the most hideous of the creatures, it’s close) has a 90-year-old grandmother living in the West Bank. Oh, all right. Israel said she could come to visit her aged grandmother, but there would be no speeches condemning Israel, calling everybody racist or promoting a boycott of Israeli goods. Well, that was the most insulting, racist thing Talib had ever heard and now she’s refusing to go. Maybe visiting grandma wasn’t the reason for her trip in the first place! If only the real troubles in the Middle East were so trite.

P.S. We are promoting material on evolution, and my Dad’s television on the delusion of the “Trinity.”

Thousands are being exposed, and hundreds have already availed themselves of the details. Thank you all for helping make these basic truths available to the general public. Have a great Sabbath,

Mark

Source: http://www.intercontinentalcog.org/fridayupdates.php

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Germany recession ‘NOW LIKELY’ – Berlin hit with SHOCK economic forecast

Levi Winchester — Thu, 10 Jan 2019 12:01:00 +0000

A RECESSION in Germany “now seems likely” as the economic powerhouse of Europe continues to be hit with a raft of disappointing financial data.

Germany news: An economist has warned a recession in Germany ‘now seems likely’ (Image: GETTY)

The gloomy forecast for the financial infrastructure of Berlin came from Stefan Schilbe of HSBC, who described recent downcast economic data from Germany as both “bad and unexpected”. Fears of an economic collapse have intensified in recent weeks after figures released back in November revealed the German economy shrunk for the first time since 2015. Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter by 0.2 percent, according to the Federal Statistical Office. Economists are now warning of a downward trend continuing after a slew of weak economic data continues to point toward a cooldown in Europe’s most powerful nation.

A recession is defined by economists as GDP falling for two consecutive quarters.

Mr Schilbe told Business Insider: “The decline was broad-based across sectors, with no bright spots.

“Manufacturing fell by 1.8 percent month-on-month with the consumer goods sector once again being the major drag.

“A technical recession in German industry now seems likely.”

One of the major stumbling blocks for the German economy is understood to have been disruption to levels of car production.

New pollution tests that were introduced back in September are thought to have dented finances after some car models were not given enough time to approve new registration, forcing manufacturers to throttle production.

Yesterday saw Germany hit by weaker than expected industrial output figures for the third consecutive month.

Data released on Tuesday by the Federal Statistics Office in Germany showed industrial output fell by 1.9 percent on the month in November, lower than the 0.3 percent increase that had been forecast.

The output figure for October was revised down to a fall of 0.8 percent from a previously reported drop of 0.5 percent.

The Federal Statistics Office will publish preliminary GDP growth data for the fourth quarter and 2018 as a whole on Tuesday next week.

Germany news: Angela Merkel is the current Chancellor of Germany (Image: GETTY)

Peter Altmaier, Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, last month lowered the government’s growth forecast for 2018 to around 1.5 to 1.6 percent, down from the previous estimate of 1.8 percent.

Earlier this month, a new survey showed the manufacturing sector in Germany slowed once more with new orders falling at the fastest rate in four years.

Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of the economy, tumbled to a 33-month low of 51.5 in December, down from 51.8 in November.

The number is inching closer to the 50.0 level which marks a contraction.

It was the eleventh time in 2018 that the manufacturing index fell.

Phil Smith, principal economist at IHS Markit, said: “With things having got a little too hot at the end of 2017 a correction was inevitable, but the extent of the slowdown has been somewhat a surprise.

“The darkening global economic picture has had ramifications for Germany’s outwardly focused manufacturing sector over the course of 2018, while the sequence of headwinds in the car industry in the latter stages of the year has been a further restricting factor.”

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