Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Bocharov Ruchei state residence in Sochi, Russia September 12, 2019.

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This December 11, 2017 photo shows Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Syrian President Bashar Assad watching troops march at the Hemeimeem air base in Syria. (Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

Israel should stop its “arbitrary” strikes in Syrian territory, which are against the region’s interests and could spark new chaos, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Wednesday.

The comments by Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova came days after a flare-up between Israel and Iran on the Syrian frontier.

“We have not changed our position on this issue, which is based on the principles of international law,” Zakharova said at a press briefing. “The practice of arbitrarily launching strikes on the territory of a sovereign state, in this case Syria, should be simply excluded.”

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She warned that such strikes encourage an “atmosphere of hostility in the region” and “do not serve the long-term national interests of any of the Middle Eastern states, including, of course, Israel… We urge everyone to think about the possible consequences of provoking a new round of chaos in the Middle East.”

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova in Moscow on January 15, 2018. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)

She added that Syria should not “become an arena for settling geopolitical accounts.” Israel has said repeatedly that its airstrikes on military and terror targets in the war-ravaged nation are aimed at curbing Iran’s efforts to entrench itself militarily in the country.

On Sunday, Israel reportedly conducted a rare daylight missile attack on Iranian targets in Syria. In response, Iran fired a surface-to-surface missile at the northern Golan Heights, which was intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defense system over the Mount Hermon ski resort, according to the Israel Defense Forces.

Hours later, in the predawn hours of Monday morning, the Israel Air Force launched retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets near Damascus and on the Syrian air defense batteries that fired upon the attacking Israeli fighter jets, the army said.

An explosion, reportedly during Israeli airstrikes near Damascus on January 21, 2019. (screen capture: YouTube)

Twenty-one people were killed in the Israeli raids in Syria early Monday, 12 of them Iranian fighters, a Britain-based Syrian war monitor said on Tuesday.

A Syrian mobile anti-aircraft battery vehicle as seen through the targeting camera of an incoming Israeli missile, on January 21, 2019. (IDF)

Photographs published by ImageSat Tuesday indicated storehouses and radar systems at Damascus International Airport were destroyed in the strikes.

Satellite images purporting to show damage to Damascus International Airport in January 20 raids by Israel, released by ImageSat International, on January 22, 2019. (ImageSat International)

The IDF said Monday that Iranian troops in Syria launched their missile at the Golan in a “premeditated” attack aimed at deterring Israel from conducting airstrikes against the Islamic Republic’s troops and proxies in Syria.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday said Israel was “committed to fighting… the Iranian army in Syria.”

During a visit to the Shizafon army base in the south of the country, the prime minister told soldiers: “Iran is the main enemy, and has declared its intention to destroy us with nuclear weapons, which we are committed to thwarting… But Iran is also building forces around us, and they have established a front in Lebanon through Hezbollah, and they have established a southern fortress in Gaza, which is maintained by Hamas and Islamic Jihad. And now they wish to build a third fortress in the Golan Heights, based on the establishment of the Iranian military.”

Israel in recent years has carried out hundreds of airstrikes in Syria against targets linked to Iran, which alongside its proxies, and Russia is fighting on behalf of the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad. A number of the strikes have targeted the Damascus airport in a bid to halt weapons transfers from Iran to its militias in Syria and Lebanon. The strikes are coordinated with Russia.

However, the number of airstrikes in Syria attributed to Israel has dropped in recent months, after a Russian military plane was downed by Syrian air defenses during an Israeli attack on Latakia last September, killing all 15 servicemen aboard.

Russia blamed the Israeli military for that incident — a charge rejected by Jerusalem — and has supplied Syria with the advanced S-300 air defense system. The systems were delivered to Syria late last year, but they are not yet believed to be in use, as the Syrian air defense teams still need to be trained to operate them.

Military officials Moscow and Jerusalem have been engaged in talks to restore trust over the incident.

Judah Ari Gross contributed to this report.

Source:  https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-says-israel-must-halt-its-arbitrary-airstrikes-in-syria/

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Although unlikely.

Key point: Were the Israelis and Russians to come to blows, or if Moscow were to seriously threaten military force against Israel, could the United States risk a grave loss of prestige by not intervening to back its longtime ally?

Israel remains determined to continue pounding Iranian forces in Syria in a bid to keep Tehran’s forces away from Israel’s northern border. At the same time, Russia has thousands of troops in Syria that could be caught in the crossfire—or even become belligerents if Moscow tires of its Syrian ally being pummeled.

And if Israel and Russia come to blows, would Israel’s big brother—the United States—feel compelled to intervene?

Not that Jerusalem or Moscow are eager for such a fight. “Neither of us desire a military confrontation,” a senior Israel Defense Forces (IDF) official told me during a recent interview in Jerusalem. “It would be detrimental to both sides.”

Yet Israel’s policy boils down to this: it will do whatever it sees as necessary to eject Iranian forces from Syria. And if Russia doesn’t like it, then that’s just the price of ensuring that Syria doesn’t become another Iranian rocket base on Israel’s border.

Relations between Jerusalem and Moscow are far warmer than during the Cold War. The result is a strange embrace reminiscent of the U.S.-Soviet detente of the 1970s. On the surface, a certain friendliness and desire for cooperation.  Yet beneath the smiles is wariness, suspicion and a clash of fundamental interests.

“No one in Israel is confused about who the Russians are and who they are aligned with,” said the IDF official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “The Russians are not our allies, to put it mildly. We have one ally, and that is the United States. The Russians are here for totally different objectives. They are supporting a regime [Syria] that has an outspoken goal of annihilating Israel if it only could. They are also part of a coalition that supports Iran.”

Just how easily Israeli military operations can trigger an incident became evident during a September 2018 strike on ammunition depots in western Syria. Anti-aircraft missiles launched by Syrian gunners accidentally shot down a Russian Il-20 surveillance aircraft, killing fifteen people. Israel denies Russian accusations that it deliberately used the Russian plane as cover, or failed to give Moscow sufficient warning of the raid. Yet Russia still blamed Israel for the mishap and retaliated by supplying advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria.

Nonetheless, Israel sees value in Russia as a potential restraint on Iran, and a possible lever to get Iranian forces out of Syria. After a February meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Vladimir Putin to mend fences after the Il-20 incident, Israeli officials claimed Putin had agreed that foreign forces should withdraw from Syria. For Moscow, friendly relations with Israel offer more influence in the Middle East even as America may be scaling down its presence in the region.

Still, the Kremlin has denounced Israeli strikes in Syria as “illegitimate.” Syria has been a Russian ally for more than fifty years, and it was Russian airstrikes—along with Iranian and Hezbollah troops—that saved Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s faltering regime from ISIS and other rebel groups. At least 63,000 Russian troops have served in Syria since 2015. Though Putin has promised since 2016 that Russian forces would withdraw, Russia currently retains more than 5,000 troops and private military contractors in Syria, backed by several dozen aircraft and helicopters.

And Russia is in Syria to stay. The Syrian port of Tartus is Russia’s only naval base in the Mediterranean: in 2016, Moscow and Damascus signed a forty-nine-year agreement that allows nuclear-powered Russian warships to operate from there. In addition, Russian aircraft and surface-to-air missiles, including the long-range S-400 air defense system, operate from at least two air bases in western Syria.

Israel can live with the Russians next door—but not the Iranians. Israeli officials warn of Tehran’s plan to station 100,000 Iranian and allied troops in Syria. Hezbollah, with its estimated arsenal of 130,000-plus rockets, already menaces Israel’s Lebanon frontier. Syria joining Lebanon as a second Iranian rocket base is the stuff of Israeli nightmares.

“We can – and we intend to – make it as difficult as possible and inflict a price tag that the Iranians aren’t willing to pay,” the IDF official said. And the Israeli Air Force has been just doing that, attacking “Iranian and Hezbollah targets hundreds of times,” Netanyahu announced after a devastating attack on Iranian arms depots near Damascus International Airport in January.

“We continue to implement our plans,” the IDF official replied when asked if Russia would deter Israeli raids into Syria. “Our activities suggest that, despite everything, we enjoy significant freedom of action.”

But more telling was his one-word response when asked how willing is Israel to fight for that freedom of action.

“Willing.”

Which leaves the question: Can Israel target Iran in Syria without triggering a clash with Russia?

There are deconfliction mechanisms in place, including a hotline between the Israeli and Russian militaries. “We are very strict about informing the Russians about our activities and that their operational picture is up to date,” said the IDF official. Yet those procedures were not sufficient to avoid a downing of a Russian plane.

Perhaps that ill-fated Il-20 was just at the wrong place at the wrong time. Still, it is not hard to imagine a multiplicity of equally fatal scenarios. Russian advisers or technicians caught in an Israeli raid on an Iranian or Syrian installation. An errant Israeli smart bomb that hits a Russian base, or a Russian pilot or anti-aircraft battery spooked by a nearby Israeli raid into opening fire. Or, perhaps Russia will just feel obligated to support the prestige of its Syrian ally and its shaky government. Just how incendiary Syrian skies are for everyone became evident in December 2017, when U.S. F-22 fighters fired flares to warn off two Russian Su-25 attack jets that breached a no-go zone in eastern Syria.

To be clear, the IDF is neither boastful nor belligerent about its capabilities versus Russia, a former superpower with the largest nuclear arsenal on the planet. The IDF official likened Israel to “The Mouse that Roared,” the classic novel of a tiny nation that challenges the United States.

But if Israel resembles any mouse, it’s Mighty Mouse: small, powerful and not afraid to use its fists. In fact, what makes a potential Israel-Russia battle so dangerous is that it is not hypothetical. After the 1967 Six-Day War, Soviet fighters were sent to Egypt. This led to a notorious July 1970 incident when in a well-planned aerial ambush over the Suez Canal, Israeli fighters shot down five Soviet-piloted MiG-21 jets in three minutes.

On the other hand, Russia doesn’t need to fight Israel to hurt Israel. Indeed, the IDF official seemed less concerned about a physical clash between Israeli and Russian forces, and more concerned that Russia could choose to supply advanced weapons—such as anti-aircraft missiles—to Israeli enemies such as Syria and Iran. In the early 1970s, the Soviet Union supplied numerous air defense missiles and guns to Egypt and Syria, which inflicted heavy losses on Israeli planes in the 1973 October War. If it wants to, Russia can make Israeli air operations very expensive.

As always with the Arab-Israeli (or Iranian-Israeli) conflict, the real danger isn’t the regional conflict, but how it might escalate. In the 1973 war, the Soviets threatened to send troops to Egypt unless Israel agreed to a cease-fire. The United States responded by going on nuclear alert.

Were the Israelis and Russians to come to blows, or if Moscow were to seriously threaten military force against Israel, could the United States risk a grave loss of prestige by not intervening to back its longtime ally? Could Russia—whose Syrian intervention is a proud symbol of its reborn military muscle and great power status—not retaliate for another downed Russian plane or a dead Russian soldier?

Which leads to the ultimate question: could tensions between Israel and Russia lead to a clash between American and Russian troops?

In the end, somebody will have to back down. But Iran isn’t about to give up its outpost on Israel’s border, and Russia probably can’t force them to. Then there is Israel, which is grimly determined to stop Iran.

As the IDF official said, “We have proven over more than 70 years as a sovereign state that you don’t push us around.”

Michael Peck is a contributing writer for the National Interest. He can be found on Twitter and Facebook. This article first appeared earlier this year.

Image: Reuters.

Source: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/middle-east-disaster-nuclear-war-between-russia-and-israel-possible-108286

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Russian warplanes pounded opposition areas in southwest Syria early Sunday, monitors said, providing air support for the first time to an offensive by President Bashar Assad’s regime to retake one of the rebel’s last strongholds in the south of Syria.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Russian warplanes carried out at least 25 sorties northeast of the city of Deraa.

Bordering on Jordan and the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, the southwest Syria battlefront is one of the seven-year war’s most complicated.

The Assad regime launched a ground and aerial offensive on opposition-held parts of Daraa, Quneitra and Sweida governorates earlier this week, endangering a one-year-old, tri-lateral “de-escalation” agreement guaranteed by Russia, the United States and Jordan.

An escalation of fighting in the southwest threatens to destabilize Jordan, displace tens of thousands of civilians and draw in regional and international powers, including raising the specter of a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran.

With rebel areas in Idlib and the northern Aleppo countryside under Turkish protection, and the United States backing Kurdish and Arab forces in the northeast against the “Islamic State,” the Assad regime had been expected to launch an offensive in the southwest after retaking rebel strongholds around Damascus and western Syria in recent months.

Russian air power alongside Iranian ground forces and Iran-backed militia have been critical in helping Syrian forces retake territory from rebels and turn the tide of the war in favor of the regime.

Read more:  Iran’s military power: What you need to know

The Syrian regime has used similar tactics against other rebel enclaves: relentless bombings and sieges followed by “reconciliation agreements” that see Damascus reassert control over territory and opposition forces submit or move to jihadi-dominated Idlib or Turkish-controlled areas.

Around 50 rebel groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army-associated Southern Front had received support from the US, Jordan, the UK, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia from an operations center based in Amman.

This backing ended in early 2018 after the Trump administration last year announced it was pulling the plug on rebel groups seeking to oust Assad.

Read more: Iran and Israel’s Syrian shadow war laid bare 

As Washington sends mixed messages, the Syrian regime offensive risks an intervention from US ally Israel.

Israel has repeatedly carried out attacks on Iranian forces, Iran-backed militia and the regime forces as it seeks to enforce red lines to keep Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran-backed forces from encroaching on its territory.

According to a report by the International Crisis Group this week, “the risk of Israeli intervention and a broader escalation between Iran and Israel stands out as the most consequential uncertainty inherent in a south-west offensive, whose destructive potential may give Damascus and its allies pause.”

Russia’s military involvement in the southwest provides a cover for advancing Syrian forces, as the best deterrence against Israel is the risk that they hit Russian military assets.

At the same time, Russia’s policy involves complex diplomatic maneuvering, with Moscow playing a key role in trying to reduce the threat of escalation that could endanger its Syrian ally or risk conflict between Israel and Iran.

Russia has reportedly been in diplomatic talks with Israel, whereby Moscow would ensure Iran and Iran-backed forces stay out of a regime offensive in the southwest in exchange for Israel greenlighting the Assad regime’s  reassertion of authority in the southwest.

“Damascus, Moscow and Tehran all appear to understand Israel’s red lines, even if their willingness to respect them remains uncertain,” the International Crisis Group said. “Nonetheless, they seem to have taken steps to address some Israeli concerns and thus smooth the Syrian regime’s return to the southwest.”

Source: http://www.dw.com/en/russian-airstrikes-in-southwest-syria-signal-escalation-of-regime-offensive/a-44368639

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Russia understands Israel’s security concern about Iran in Syria, Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman said on Thursday after meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoygu in Moscow.

“Israel appreciates Russia’s understanding of our security needs, especially with regard to the situation on our northern border,” Liberman said.

“It is important to continue the dialogue and to keep an open line between the IDF and the Russian army,” Liberman added.

Prior to the meeting, Shoygu said the two men would discuss the de-escalation zone in southern Syria.

Prior to Liberman’s visit, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called on non-Syrian forces to withdraw the country’s southern border as soon as possible.

Israel wants to push Iran and its proxy armies out of Syria, but has focused for the moment on a deal that push them out of its border region in the southern Syria.

In exchange, government forces would regain control of the area where rebel troops have been based.

The complex deal would also involve agreements with Jordan and the United States.

On Wednesday, prior to Liberman’s trip, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo held telephone conversations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lavrov.

The Moscow meeting was also attended by  of Military Intelligence Directorate’s head Maj. Gen. Tamir Heiman and the head of the Defense Ministry’s diplomatic-security division Zohar Palti.

In an interview with Russia Today, Syrian President Bashar Assad said that there were no Iranian troops in his country.

Separately, in Brussels the EU foreign Policy chief Federica Mogherini met with a delegation from the Syrian opposition headed by Secretary-General of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces Naser Al-Hariri.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Source: https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Russia-understands-Israel-wont-tolerate-Iran-on-border-Liberman-says-558837

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• When Russia becomes the U.S.S.R. on steroids, Israel can become a target too

• Israel will continue to operate freely in Syria, defense minister says

• Russia’s first floating nuclear plant heads out to sea

  Vladimir Putin has shown himself to be quite astute in establishing a Russian presence in Syria. After waiting for the Americans to make it clear that they did not intend to get involved in the fighting there, he moved into the vacuum quickly and massively. He has established Russian naval and air bases and has provided military support to Syrian President Bashar Assad. Having saved Assad from defeat, Putin became Assad’s patron.

  Now Assad is indebted to Putin and relies on him for further military support, which includes Russian aircraft and missiles. The use of Russian mercenaries for fighting on the ground allows Putin to claim that no Russian ground forces are involved in the fighting and that the Russian military presence on the ground is limited to the Russian naval and air bases. The use of mercenaries is a ruse that was already used to cover the Russian involvement in Ukraine. Although quite transparent, it seems to be working. It has become part of the inventory of methods used to spread Russian influence beyond Russia’s borders. The world seems to be getting used to it.

  Whether to his satisfaction or not, Putin has become an ally of the Iranians, who are also supporting Assad through Hezbollah as well as with Iranian forces on the ground. They have all well situated themselves in Syria.

  On more than one occasion, Israel has made clear to Putin that it opposes the supplying of weapons to Hezbollah via Syria and that it is determined to keep Iranian forces from approaching Israel’s borders. Various arrangements have been made between Russia and Israel that are supposed to ensure the avoidance of conflict between Israeli aircraft operating over Syria and Russian aircraft. This seems to have worked so far.

  Now Putin is now considering supplying S-300 surface-to-air missiles to Assad, which would provide the Syrian president with the ability to engage Israeli aircraft attacking targets in Syria. This could bring about a dramatic change in the situation in Syria, and is liable to increase the prospect of a direct conflict between Russia and Israel. From Putin’s standpoint, this is a gamble whose outcome is hard to predict.

  Undoubtedly a few of the old-timers at the Kremlin remember the effect that the introduction of Soviet surface-to-air missiles in Egypt in 1970 had on the War of Attrition, and then during the Yom Kippur War, when they managed to neutralize the Israel Air Force. They probably hope that now the supply of the S-300 missiles to Syria will have a similar effect.

  But they may also recall how, nine years after the Yom Kippur War, in the First Lebanon War, the Israel Air Force destroyed Soviet missile batteries deployed in Lebanon without losing a single aircraft. That time Soviet technology had met its match, and it was a blow heard around the world.

  Is it possible that the Israeli Air Force will know how to deal with the S-300 missile system if it is deployed in Syria? That no doubt is of concern to Putin and his generals. Such a scenario is liable to constitute a harsh blow to Russian weapons technology, hurting the Russians’ marketing efforts for this missile system to other countries, such as Iran, and even raising questions as to the continued Russian-Iranian alliance in Syria.

  For the first time since the beginning of the Russian intervention in Syria, Putin may find himself in direct confrontation with Israel. So far he has been able to maintain proper relations with Israel. Now it appears that he will have to make a choice.

  ---

  Source: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-may-revealing-its-military-superiority-if-pushed-by-putin-in-syria-1.6045735

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The post Opinion How Putin’s Syria Gambit Could End With Israel Revealing Its Military Superiority first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.