Russia-Ukraine maritime clash - Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association

As Russia stokes tensions with Ukraine, it’s trying to gain a military edge over NATO elsewhere in Europe

Michael Armstrong — Thu, 29 Nov 2018 19:14:52 +0000

The Russian large landing ship Azov fires missiles during a rehearsal for the Navy Day parade in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol, Crimea, July 27, 2017. REUTERS/Pavel Rebrov

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have spiked after Russia fire upon and seized Ukrainian ships on Sunday in the Black Sea.
Russia’s military presence in the Black Sea region has increased since the 2014 annexation of Crimea, and Moscow has made similar moves elsewhere.
Russian capabilities present specific challenges to NATO — something the alliance is well aware of.

A confrontation between Russian and Ukrainian ships in the Black Sea this weekend ended with Ukraine’s ships seized and its sailors jailed.

It was the first direct clash between Moscow and Kiev in years, and it stoked tensions that have been elevated for years, especially after Russia intervened in Ukraine in 2014 and seized the Crimean Peninsula and then backed separatist movements along Ukraine’s eastern border.

Two Ukrainian navy ships sailing near Crimea.

Ukrainian Navy Press Service via AP

The November 25 clash took place in the Kerch Strait, which divides Crimea and mainland Russia and connects the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov. Photos show Russia appears to have struck one of the Ukrainian ships with a heavy weapon, such as a 30mm gun or missile.

Since claiming Crimea, Russia has taken a more aggressive stance toward the Sea of Azov, declaring invalid a 2003 agreement in which Moscow and Kiev agreed to share the body of water.

In 2015, Russia began construction of a bridge over the Kerch Strait. The sea is already the world’s shallowest, no deeper than 50 feet, and the height of the bridge further restricted the size of ships that could pass through.

The road-and-rail bridge constructed to connect the Russian mainland with the Crimean Peninsula, in the Kerch Strait, Crimea, April 25, 2018.

REUTERS/Pavel Rebrov

Russia has also interfered with Ukrainian shipping in the area and at times closed the strait completely — all of which is particularly challenging for Ukraine, which has major ports on the Sea of Azov.

Ukraine and Russia have both pursued a military buildup in the area, but Russia has more forces and their activity has been more substantial.

Moscow’s moves in the Black Sea region are of a piece of with what it’s been doing throughout Eastern Europe amid heightened tensions with NATO.

‘An arc of A2/AD’

Since 2014, Russia has “built up tremendous amounts of capability” in Crimea, said Omar Lamrani, a senior military analyst at geopolitical-analysis firm Stratfor.

Tensions between Ukraine and Russia have been high since 2014, and NATO has taken a more active role in the region. -Google Maps

Russian forces in the area now amount to about 30,000 troops and more than 100 combat aircraft, up from dozens that were in the area prior to the takeover, Lamrani said. (In May, 17 Russian planes swarmed a British warship sailing just 30 miles from Crimea.)

“They have now three battalions of S-400s, plus other air-defense systems, like the S-300 [and the] Buk M2,” Lamrani said. Another division of S-400 missiles is on its way to Crimea, where it will be the fourth on duty, according to Russian state media.

“They installed a number of coastal missile-defense batteries” firing weapons like Bastion and Bal cruise missiles, which can strike land and sea targets, Lamrani said. Russian state media also said this week that more Bal and other anti-ship missiles were headed to the Crimean city of Kerch, which overlooks the strait of the same name.

“They have some Iskander missiles they rotate through the area, lots of new artillery systems, lots of new armor,” Lamrani added, referring to Russian short-range, nuclear-capable cruise missiles. “They didn’t really have main battle tanks there before 2014. Now they do.”

Russian tank crew members wait for their T-72B tank to move off a train after arriving at a train station in Gvardeiskoye near the Crimean city of Simferopol, March 31, 2014.

REUTERS/Yannis Behrakis

Russia sees Crimea as a stronghold from which to pressure Ukraine and assert control over a broader swath of the Black Sea, Lamrani said.

Weapons like the S-400 and coastal-defense systems can be employed as a part of anti-access/area-denial, or A2/AD, strategy, and their presence in Crimea and elsewhere along Russia’s eastern frontiers has garnered attention from NATO.

Russian “A2/AD capability [runs] from the high north through Kaliningrad, down to Crimea and all the way down into [Russia’s] base at Tartus in Syria,” Ben Hodges, who commanded the US Army in Europe before retiring at the end of 2017, told Business Insider at the beginning of November.

The S-400, considered Russia’s most advanced air-defense system, is also deployed in Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea and near Latakia on the Syrian coast. The S-300, which is older but still highly capable, has been deployed in the region, including in the breakaway Georgian province of Abkhazia, which borders the Black Sea.

“There are varying degrees of capabilities” at each of those sites, Hodges added, “but the one in Kaliningrad and the one in Crimea are the most substantial, with air- and missile-defense and anti-ship missiles and several thousands of troops” from Russia’s army, navy, and air force. “That’s part of creating an arc of A2/AD, if you will.”

Russia S-400 air-defense systems in Syria. -Russian Defense Ministry

Some of the NATO members bordering the sea, like Romania and Bulgaria, don’t have a major naval presence there, but Turkey would likely prevent Russia from having free reign in the sea.

With the vantage point provided by Crimea, Russian combat aircraft and land-based weapons systems like the S-400 and Bal missiles can extend their reach hundreds of miles into and over the Black Sea.

“They can effectively support their navy with an umbrella defense of surface-to-air missiles and anti-ship missile systems that can keep NATO away in case of any threat,” Lamrani said.

A2/AD systems could provide similar defense in a place like Kaliningrad, which has Russia’s only year-round, ice-free Baltic Sea port and is close to St. Petersburg, Russia’s second-largest city. In western Syria, where Russian S-400 systems have already been deployed, US-led coalition forces have worked hard to avoid Russian airspace.

‘Alive to these challenges’

Standing NATO Maritime Group Two (SNMG2) flagship HMS Duncan, arrives to the harbor in Constanta, Romania, February 2, 2018.

NATO/CPO FRA C.Valverde

Russian forces are outstripped by NATO as a whole, and an all-out Russian attack on another country is considered unlikely.

But concern has grown that Russian A2/AD in areas like eastern Syria or the Baltic and Black seas could create layered defensive bubbles and limit NATO’s freedom of movement — especially in an engagement below the threshold of war.

In the decades since the Cold War, NATO members also shifted their attention away from a potential conflict with a peer or near-peer foe, focusing instead on smaller-scale operations like counterterrorism. (The US and others have started to reverse this shift.)

“There’s been decline in … investments rather in this type of warfare, as NATO attention has shifted to other priorities,” Lamrani said of A2/AD.

But, he noted, Russia has pursued the mismatch to compensate for a weakness.

A NATO flag flutters next to a US Air Force F-35A Lightning II fighter at Amari air base in Estonia, April 25, 2017.

Thomson Reuters

“Russia is stronger than NATO in air defenses and stronger than NATO in land-based anti-ship missile systems, as well as anti-missile systems in general,” Lamrani said. “That came out of Russia trying to mitigate its disadvantages in other areas. For instance, NATO naval forces are much stronger than Russia, and NATO air power as a whole is much stronger than Russia.”

Advanced stealth platforms, like the US-made F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, are seen as potential counters to A2/AD systems. And other assets, like the Navy’s EA-18G Growler electronic-attack aircraft, could help thwart them.

But it’s not clear those resources are available in the numbers needed to do so, nor is it likely such an engagement could be conducted without heavy losses.

Nevertheless, while Russia may find an advantage within the specific area of A2/AD, Lamrani said, “that doesn’t mean that NATO hasn’t been developing its own capabilities in other areas [and it] doesn’t mean that NATO hasn’t been thinking about this type of stuff.”

“Let’s just say the alliance is alive to these challenges, and it … will be prepared to use all the different things that would be required,” Hodges said in early November, without elaborating. “This is not something … the alliance has not looked at very closely.”

Donald Trump Has Cancelled His Planned Meeting With Vladimir Putin

Chris York — Thu, 29 Nov 2018 18:14:51 +0000

Yet another twist in their bizarre relationship.

Donald Trump has cancelled a meeting with Vladimir Putin, citing the escalating tensions in Ukraine, just hours after telling reporters it would be “a very good time” to hold it.

The US president was due to meet his Russian counterpart during the upcoming summit for the Group of 20 industrialized nations in Argentina this weekend.

In tweets posted on Thursday after he had departed for the event, Trump said: “Based on the fact that the ships and sailors have not been returned to Ukraine from Russia, I have decided it would be best for all parties concerned to cancel my previously scheduled meeting in Argentina with President Vladimir Putin.

“I look forward to a meaningful Summit again as soon as this situation is resolved!”

The announcement marks yet another shift in the relationship between Trump and Putin which has repeatedly confounded almost everyone in the world community – including the president’s own intelligence services.

Trump hasn’t been afraid to openly criticize pretty much anyone – Theresa May, fellow Republicans and Oprah to name just a few, but one person conspicuously missing from the list is Vladimir Putin.

In fact with few notable exceptions, Trump has had nothing but glowing praise for the Russian president and has made a number of decisions while in office that appear to have been to his benefit, including refusing to impose sanctions on Russia.

The administration of former president Barack Obama imposed sanctions on Russia for its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. That in part brought ties between Washington and Moscow to their lowest point since the end of the Cold War.

Since then, the United States has investigated Russia’s possible interference in the 2016 presidential election that Trump won. Russia has denied meddling and Trump has repeatedly said there was no collusion.

The current situation in Ukraine

On Sunday, the Russian coastguard fired on and seized three Ukrainian vessels trying to pass from the Black Sea into the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait, between Russia’s mainland and the Crimean peninsula it annexed from Ukraine.

Both sides are blaming each other for the crisis – Ukraine insisted its vessels were operating in line with international maritime rules, while Russia said they had failed to get permission to pass.

Sailors aboard the vessels seized by Russia have since appeared in videos released by the Kremlin, apparently admitting their ships acted provocatively.

But in at least one of the videos, the crewman appears to be reading lines as he speaks.

Ruptly@Ruptly

Ukrainian crew admit to ‘provocation’ in statements released by FSB#Ukraine #KerchStrait

The escalation of tensions between the two countries follows Moscow’s seizure and annexation of Crimea in 2014, after a pro-Russian leader was toppled in Kiev.

Ukraine’s president Petro Poroshenko accused Putin on Thursday of wanting to annex his entire country and called for NATO to deploy warships to a sea shared by the two nations.

Chris York Senior Editor, HuffPost UK

Source: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/donald-trump-vladimir-putin_uk_5c00195be4b08506231ab2b0?guccounter=1&guce_referrer_us=aHR0cDovL2MubmV3c25vdy5jby51ay9BLzk2NDczMDQ2OT8tNjk3OjczMzpsYXRlc3RfbmV3cw&guce_referrer_cs=Bus5NWA46LP-gmV0jWLh0A

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Kremlin confirms Trump-Putin G20 meet amid Russia-Ukraine tensions

Laura Smith-Spark, Darya Tarasova and Radina Gigova, CNN — Thu, 29 Nov 2018 17:43:34 +0000

Moscow (CNN) A meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will go ahead on Saturday on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Argentina, the Kremlin said Thursday.

Trump suggested in an interview Tuesday that he might cancel the get-together after Russian ships opened fire on and seized three Ukrainian vessels near Crimea, in a clash that western European leaders have taken as an act of Russian aggression.

The White House has not publicly confirmed the meeting and did not immediately respond to CNN’s requests for comment.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, however, said that the White House had confirmed the meeting and laid out the Presidents’ agenda.

“First of all, questions related to bilateral relations, we need to think about how to start talking on matters of bilateral relations, on matters of strategic security and disarmament and on regional conflicts,” he told journalists in a regular press briefing.

“We don’t have to agree on all issues, which is probably impossible, but we need to talk. It’s in the interests of not only our two countries, it’s in the interests of the whole world.”

Peskov said the meeting would take place Saturday at around noon, while Russian state media reported the leaders would meet at the Park Hyatt in Buenos Aires.

The time frame for the meeting was “quite tight,” Peskov said, adding there would be “a brief conversation between the presidents, as we expect, and then negotiations, which can last about an hour.”

If it goes ahead as scheduled, it will be the first such sit-down between the two men since they met for more than two hours in Finland in July with only their translators present.

That much-maligned meeting saw Trump forsake the US intelligence community’s conclusions of Russian interference in the 2016 US election in favor of amplifying Putin’s denials.

National Security Advisor John Bolton told reporters Tuesday that if the two leaders did meet, Trump would discuss security, arms control and regional issues with Putin. “I think it will be a continuation of their discussion in Helsinki,” he said.

Bolton did not confirm whether the situation in Ukraine would be on the table.

Trump waited more than 24 hours after the maritime clash on Sunday before he commented on the incident. In response to reporters’ questions, the President said he was “not happy about it at all,” then indicated he might see fault on both sides, saying, “we do not like what’s happening either way.”

Other world leaders quickly issued statements condemning the clash and urging a de-escalation.

Russia: ‘Provocation’ by Kiev

The November 25 confrontation ended with three Ukrainian ships in Russian custody and 24 Ukrainian sailors in detention. Kiev and Moscow have offered conflicting accounts of what happened, each accusing the other of violating the laws of the sea.

Amid escalating tensions, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has imposed martial law in select provinces for 30 days.

In an interview with German newspaper Bild, Poroshenko said he hoped for naval support from NATO.

“Germany is one of our closest allies, and we hope that states within NATO are now willing to deploy naval vessels to the Sea of Azov in order to support Ukraine and to guarantee its safety,” Bild quotes him as saying.

“We cannot accept Russia’s aggressive policy. First, it was Crimea, then eastern Ukraine, now he wants the Sea of Azov. Germany also has to wonder: what will Putin do next if we don’t stop him?”

Ukraine is not a NATO member, but on Tuesday the alliance condemned Russia’s use of force and said it “stands with Ukraine.”

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova suggested Wednesday that some Western countries may have participated in planning the incident in the Kerch Strait.

“This is a deliberate provocation. I don’t have any doubts that some of our Western partners knew about it or even participated in planning it. This is why all of this is not accidental,” Zakharova told Russia’s Channel One, according state news agency TASS. “The assessments that we hear and the informational campaign underway right now, only prove it,” she said.

Hours earlier, Putin said there were “clear signs of a provocation prepared in advance” by Kiev “as a pretext to impose martial law in the country” for domestic political ends.

On Wednesday, the European Union expressed its “utmost concern about the dangerous increase of tensions” in the Kerch Strait and Azov Sea and called for the “utmost restraint to de-escalate the situation immediately,” as well as the swift release of the seized Ukrainian ships and crew.

CNN’s Nicole Gaouette, Nathan Hodge, Hamdi Alkhshali and Angela Dewan contributed to this report. Darya Tarasova reported from Moscow, Laura Smith-Spark reported from London and Radina Gigova reported from Atlanta.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/29/politics/trump-putin-g20-meeting-intl/index.html