Russia-Venezuela relations - Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association

Russia Ready To Seize Control Of The World’s Largest Oil Reserves

Irina Slav — Fri, 18 Oct 2019 05:42:31 +0000

The Venezuelan government is readying to hand over control over state oil company PDVSA to Russia’s Rosneft, a local newspaper has reported, citing sources from the industry.

Russian TASS reports, quoting El Nacional, that the radical move is being discussed as a way of erasing Caracas’ debt to Moscow. The debt is sizeable: at the end of June this year, money owed to Rosneft alone stood at $1.1 billion. That’s down from $1.8 billion at end-March.

Two years ago, Caracas and Moscow sealed a deal for the restructuring of another $3.15 billion debt to Russia over 10 years with minimum payments over the first six years. Since 2006, Russian loans to Venezuela have reached more than $17 billion in total.

According to the El Nacional report, Moscow had reacted positively to the suggestion, and several commissions had been set up and sent to Venezuela to evaluate the situation at PDVSA. The first feedback from these commissions was reportedly that the company was too large and it needed serious layoffs to become more competitive.

Competitiveness remains questionable, however. Most of the U.S. sanctions on Venezuela have targeted precisely PDVSA because of its vital role as the country’s—and the Maduro government’s—cash cow. Rosneft is the subject of U.S. sanctions, too.

Rosneft is active in Venezuela in joint projects with PDVSA. However, these activities appear to not be in breach of U.S. sanctions, according to the U.S. Special Envoy for Venezuela Elliott Abrams. However, Abrams said last month that sanctions may be coming for the Russian company in the future. If the El Nacional report is confirmed, these will likely come sooner rather than later

Caracas reportedly wants to hand control over to Rosneft without having to go through privatization. In any case, a change of ownership over PDVSA would need to be approved by the National Assembly, which is controlled by the opposition.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

Source: click here

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Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent. ‘Shock therapy’ may be only chance to undo the economic damage

Valentina Sanchez — Sat, 03 Aug 2019 01:55:38 +0000

Venezuela’s state-run economic model wasted the world’s largest oil reserves.
The country owes $100 billion to foreign creditors.
Its educated, professional class has fled.
Economic shock therapy, implemented in regions like the former Soviet bloc, could be its only chance.

View of damages in a supermarket in Valencia, Carabobo State, on May 5, 2017, the day after anti-government protesters looted stores, set fire to cars and clashed with police, leaving at least five people injured and one dead. Ronaldo Schemidt | AFP | Getty Images

Venezuela’s crisis has been marked by corruption, hyperinflation, one of the world’s highest homicide rates, food and medicine shortages and the largest exodus “in the recent history of Latin America,” according to the UN Refugee Agency.

Its chances to recover may start with President Nicolas Maduro stepping down or being forcibly removed — either by the opposition or through foreign military intervention. But that would just be the first step to get the ruined economy on the road to recovery. A major course of economic shock therapy will be required.

Venezuela’s hyperinflation rate increased from 9,029 percent to 10 million percent since 2018, according to the International Monetary Fund, though it is expected to decline to back below 1 million percent due to recent moves by the country’s central bank, according to a recent IMF forecast.

But the economic situation remains dire: The IMF says the cumulative decline of the Venezuelan economy since 2013 will reach 65% this year — for 2019 the annual decline forecast has increased from 25% to 35%. The five-year contraction is one of the worst in the world over the past half-century and one of the few that was not caused by armed conflicts or natural disasters, the IMF stated earlier this week.

Some experts believe that in order to regain control over Venezuela’s monetary system and zero out hyperinflation, drastic decisions will need to be taken.

“Venezuelans who have been suffering all of this time are going to be faced with a very dramatic, very draconian policy aimed at bringing their monetary system under control,” said Dr. Eduardo Gamarra, professor of politics and international relations at Florida International University.

Wasted oil riches

Shock therapy supports the implementation of drastic economic policies to combat hyperinflation, shortages, reduce the budget deficit — Venezuela’s current budget deficit stands at –29.95% in relation to GDP — and transition from a state-controlled economy to a mixed one.

It was used in post-communist Poland and Russia, and in other countries like Chile and Bolivia, where it successfully ended hyperinflation.

Shock therapy measures, based on recent economic history, can include ending price controls and government subsidies, instituting higher tax rates and lower government spending to reduce budget deficits, devaluing the currency to boost foreign investments and selling state-owned industries to the private sector.

Venezuela will have to transform its current scheme of restricting foreign investment in order to fund the restoration of the energy sector, as well as its infrastructure, including the country’s roads and bridges and the power grid.

The petrostate recently experienced a weeklong blackout caused by the deterioration of the power grid, leaving people in 19 of 23 states without running water and causing four deaths.

“They need to rebuild everything, but the state is bankrupt and has no ability to fund any of these projects,” Gamarra said. “Unless they invite major foreign investment, I don’t see where the revenue is going to come from, because it’s certainly not going to come from oil.”

People wait at the parking of a shopping centre in Caracas on July 22, 2019, as the capital and other parts of Venezuela are being hit by a massive power cut. MATIAS DELACROIX | AFP | Getty Images

Venezuela is home to the world’s largest oil reserves, and its economy has been tied to the ups and downs of the international price of oil for decades — oil constitutes about 25% of the country’s GDP and 95% of its exports. But the country’s oil production reached its lowest point since 2003 this year when production went from 1.2 million barrels per day in the beginning of 2019 to an average of 830,000 barrels per day.

The energy sector is only producing a fraction of the 4 million barrels of oil a day it could be producing.

“The sector has to be completely recapitalized,” said Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the Council of the Americas and the Americas Society.

“The government will have to reinvest in that industry. They also need to modernize that sector because they haven’t done anything in the last decade,” Gamarra said.

The World Bank and IMF

Besides foreign investment, Venezuela will likely need help from multinational institutions such as the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank and the Development Bank of Latin America in order to fund the infrastructure development.

It is not rare for a South American country attempting to recover from an economic crisis to accept large loans from multinational institutions. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund played an instrumental role in Bolivia’s economic recovery in 1985 by pledging a total of $250 million in loans. Chile also received multimillion-dollar loans from international institutions such as the Inter‐American Development Bank and the World Bank throughout the ’70s in order to manage its mounting inflation rates and debt.

During the recent political unrest in Venezuela, the IMF and World Bank both indicated they were prepared to help, but the leadership uncertainty — as Venezuela’s opposition chief Juan Guaidó attempts to take control — made these institutions’ positions difficult. The U.S. has the largest share of votes in both institutions. Some major powers continue to recognize Maduro’s government, such as Russia and China.

The U.S. government has indicated it would offer both investment and credit to the country, but only after regime change to a democratic government.

Leadership negotiations are set to resume later this week, according to Carlos Vecchio, a Venezuelan diplomat representing the opposition, who spoke at the National Press Club in Washington D.C. on Tuesday. Although he would not specify exactly when or where the talks would take place, he expects a resolution by the end of this year. Vecchio said Guaidó would prefer a peaceful transition rather than international intervention to remove Maduro.

They could have created the Emirates. … Instead, they blew it. It was money blown through corruption and these international alliances. However you look at it, even from the kindest, kindest way, it was a model that was bound to fail.

Dr. Eduardo Gamarra – PROFESSOR OF POLITICS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY

Current IMF managing director Christine Lagarde recently told The Economist Radio, “As soon as we are asked by the legitimate authorities of that country to come in and help, we will come in. It is going to require significant financing from all the international community.”

Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chavez have refused to provide the IMF with information it would need to perform audits. Lagarde told The Economist that she could not be specific about an aid package but added, “We will open our wallet, we will put our brain to it, and we will make sure our heart is in the right place to help the poorest and the most exposed people,” she said.

Back in 2007, when Venezuela was flush with cash from years of the booming oil business, Chavez paid off all of the country’s debt to the World Bank and severed ties with both it and the IMF.

Experts urge Venezuela to diversify its economy from primarily oil production in order to prevent a similar crisis in the future.

“If you depend solely on the export of a single product, you are bound to the ups and downs of the oil price,” the University of Florida’s Gamarra said. “You have to diversify your exports, you have to have a range of high value-added exports because your economy has to be able to overcome moments of downturns in your principal commodities. Unless they diversify, they’re going to go through this again.”

A massive brain drain

The lack of human capital is another issue Venezuela will have to address in order to recover from its economic crisis.

Venezuela has lost more than 10% of its population in recent years. The number of Venezuelan migrants and refugees has reached 4 million and is expected to surpass 5.3 million by the end of this year, according to the UN Refugee Agency.

Many of those who have fled will most likely not return. They are making their living elsewhere; their children are attending college and are finally comfortable after starting from zero in a foreign land. The idea of leaving everything behind to return to Venezuela and help rebuild the country might not be appealing.

The lack of a solid professional class will be the primary issue holding Venezuela back, Farnsworth of the Council of the Americas said.

“Venezuela has been bleeding their professional class for years. The money will be there. Money is going to show up if they see an opportunity. But particularly in the petroleum sector, Venezuela’s main productive sector, you have to have highly educated and experienced managers, engineers … That professional class left Venezuela years ago.”

Gamarra is concerned about the lack of human capital pushing out the timeline for economic recovery.

“Venezuela is taking a huge, huge loss of human capital more than anything else,” he said. “And whenever a country loses such a large number of people, it’s not that those who remain behind aren’t capable, but a lot of those who left are the educated, the wealthy, the kind of people you need to rebuild a country.”

Venezuela will have to develop a new professional class through steps including the reformulation of its education system, which will take years to accomplish.

Foreign alliances and influence

China, Russia, and Cuba have enabled Maduro’s continuation in power by lending money, providing weapons, intelligence support and political advice — relationships that date back to the regime of former Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez. Some experts believe these world powers need to be held responsible for it.

The Venezuelan petrostate has relied on China and Russia to stay afloat — they have given Venezuela billions of dollars in loans and investments over the past decade.

By some recent estimates, China has become the world’s largest official creditor, surpassing institutions like the IMF.

Venezuela now owes about $100 billion dollars to external creditors, according to the latest Central Intelligence Agency report.

“The external support of those countries, in particular, has certainly enabled the continuation of the Maduro regime because they have provided resources through the purchases of petroleum,” Farnsworth said. “Those three countries have clearly made the transition more difficult. They have enabled Venezuela’s collapse.”

Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro, right, walks with Chinese President Xi Jinping as they arrive to a welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People on January 7, 2015, in Beijing, China. -Andy Wong, Pool | Getty Images

Some experts agree that these countries, especially China, should contribute to the alleviation of the humanitarian crisis in Colombia, Brazil and other nations affected by the mass exodus, as well as using its wealth to contribute to the economic recovery of Venezuela.

“If they want to engage in the Western Hemisphere, they have to engage in other ways, not just by selling products and then skedaddling when things get tough,” Farnsworth said. “Try to address some of the problems in the region … particularly problems that they themselves have helped to cause.”

Venezuela’s recovery will require a decade-long transformation after a 20-year-long ordeal, rebuilding the country from the ground up.

But the experts say socialism was not the root cause of Venezuela’s problems. Corruption and mismanagement are to blame for the collapse of the oil-rich country.

“It was, and I hate putting labels on it … but it was really a scheme to scam the oil revenue, to promote the Bolivarian model, which again was not socialism to any extent,” Gamarra said. “Everything was done through this corrupt scheme where they skimmed the money off the top and did everything in such a corrupt manner that it only benefited a few.”

“They could have created the Emirates. The King Chavez. But still, spend all of that money on Venezuela. Instead, they blew it. It was money blown through corruption and these international alliances,” Gamarra said. “And so however you look at it, even from the kindest, kindest way, it was a model that was bound to fail.”

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/02/venezuela-inflation-at-10-million-percent-its-time-for-shock-therapy.html

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Venezuela’s Collapse Frays Its Economic Ties With Russia

Anatoly Kurmanaev — Mon, 17 Jun 2019 07:37:43 +0000

President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, center left, meeting with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, center right.CreditCreditPool photo by Maxim Shemetov

MOSCOW — In his toughest moments, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has turned to Russia for support.

When the United States sanctioned the Venezuelan energy industry in January, Russia’s oil firm Rosneft helped to divert its oil exports to Asia. And when rumors of an armed American intervention reached fever pitch in March, two airplanes with Russian military technicians landed in Caracas — a reminder Russia was on Venezuela’s side.

Yet there is growing evidence that, beyond these high-profile gestures with limited effect on the ground, economic ties between Venezuela and Russia are fraying. Russian banks, grain exporters, even weapons manufacturers have all curtailed business with Venezuela, driven away by the very economic collapse they intended to help Russia’s South American ally withstand.

“Russia’s economic ties to Venezuela have really slowed down in the past few years,” said Maximilian Hess, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in London. “The policies today are really low-cost, but they get a lot of geopolitical play.”

Russia’s public display of support came at a number of crucial moments since the opposition leader, Juan Guaidó, proclaimed himself the country’s interim president in January, challenging Mr. Maduro’s grip on power and plunging the country deeper into political crisis. Russia’s support allowed Mr. Maduro to claim the backing of a powerful ally and to maintain critical support in the military and the ruling party.

But in economic matters, Russian state-owned companies are cutting back on the business they do with the bankrupt nation to protect their bottom line, showing the limits of President Vladimir V. Putin’s strategy of propping up an ally and antagonizing the Trump administration. The Russian government has not filled the breach, refusing to issue Venezuela new credit lines, to commit to new investments or even to provide relief on existing debt to ease Mr. Maduro’s battle with the opposition.

As Venezuela’s economy crumbles, gas shortages leave drivers waiting for hours to fill up their cars.CreditMeridith Kohut for The New York Times

The Kremlin’s preference for symbolic displays of support instead of long-term investments in Venezuela is partly tied to Russia’s own economic woes. Russia’s five-year stagnation has led to the biggest outbreak of protests since 2013, to an exceptionally steep decline in Mr. Putin’s trust ratings and to growing public aversion to costly foreign adventures, according to Russian polls.

Russia exported just $36 million worth of goods to Venezuela in the first four months of this year, less than half the amount it sent three years ago, according to Russian customs data.

Russian wheat sales to Venezuela, which Mr. Maduro touted as the replacement for American grain, plummeted 60 percent, to 187,000 tons, during Russia’s agricultural export season ending in April, compared with the same period a year earlier, the customs data shows. These amounts cover only a tenth of Venezuela’s annual wheat demand.

Moscow’s largest banks have largely shunned Mr. Maduro’s attempts to move Venezuelan government accounts to Russia to escape American sanctions, according to two people knowledgeable about the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the press. The widespread use of the dollar in the Russian financial system means the risk of American sanctions greatly outweighs potential earnings from new Venezuelan business, they said.

None of the top 15 Russian banks had meaningful loans to Venezuelan entities as of April, according to their regulatory filings. State-controlled Gazprombank, which used to be one of the main European bankers for the Venezuelan national oil company, Pdvsa, in April erased nearly all of its Venezuelan credit portfolio after having quit a joint banking venture with Mr. Maduro’s government, the filings show.

Even Russian weapons trade with Venezuela, the cornerstone of the countries’ economic relations, has been hit by Mr. Maduro’s financial woes.

Russia’s industrial conglomerate RosTec, which accounts for the bulk of the country’s defense exports, has reduced its exposure to Venezuela because of unpaid invoices, according to two people close to the company who discussed national security matters on condition of anonymity. The company has chosen not to renew some weapons maintenance contracts and freeze other projects, they said.

Former President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, center, applauding a worker during a visit to a weapons factory in Russia in 2006. The multibillion-dollar deals for Russian weapons he signed are long gone.CreditMarcelo Garcia/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

This includes the Kalashnikov machine gun factory in the central city of Maracay, which remains unfinished 12 years after the start of construction.

Arms sales can be a politicized business, but it is still business, and it has to make economic sense, said one of those familiar with RosTec.

A RosTec spokeswoman said the company’s staff in Venezuela has remained unchanged in recent years and its technicians come and go according to its projects’ needs.

The multibillion-dollar deals for Russian weapons signed by Mr. Maduro’s charismatic predecessor, Hugo Chávez, are long gone. In the past two years, Russia exported $1 million worth of goods to Venezuela under the “secret” customs code that includes military and security equipment, according to Russian customs.

“We absolutely, officially have sold weapons to Venezuela,” Mr. Putin told reporters last week. “We have not done it for quite a while now.”

Though limited, Russia’s economic help did allow Mr. Maduro to maintain some revenue flow amid tightening American sanctions. The Moscow-based bank Eurofinance Mosnarbank, which is jointly owned by the Russian and Venezuelan governments and is under United States sanctions, continues to process payments for Pdvsa, according to bank wire receipts seen by The New York Times.

The Russian government responded to American sanctions against the bank in March by taking control of the lender.

The Pdvsa petroleum complex, José Antonio Anzoátegui. Venezuela’s oil output plummeted 35 percent since the American sanctions in January, one of the steepest declines of production in modern history.CreditThe New York Times

Despite these moves, Russia remains overtly supportive of Mr. Maduro’s administration, and is part of his major remaining economic and political bulwark.

“Our relations with Venezuela are of strategic nature,” Moscow’s ambassador to Caracas, Vladimir Zaemsky, said after the arrival of two Russian military planes in Venezuela in March. “We’re prepared, as always, to provide complete support to the lawful government of Venezuela and the Venezuelan people.”

RosTec’s inauguration of a helicopter training center in Venezuela in late March provided an important public relations boost to Mr. Maduro.

Rosneft, in particular, has helped Pdvsa to redirect some of its oil exports, targeted by American sanctions, to Asia. The Russian firm bought the oil in five of seven tankers that left Venezuela in the first half of May, according to Pdvsa data.

Rosneft, which has taken on the risky but lucrative role of Pdvsa’s partner of last resort, has said its operations in Venezuela are strictly commercial and compliant with American sanctions. But even it has refrained from putting new money into Venezuela. The company’s outstanding loans to Pdvsa have fallen by more than half in the past year to $1.8 billion, according to its financial statements.

And Rosneft’s lifeline has not been enough to prevent the collapse of Venezuela’s already struggling oil industry. The national oil output plummeted 35 percent since the American sanctions in January, one of the steepest declines of production in modern history, according to estimates by the Institute of International Finance.

“If I was a Venezuelan general debating my future, I wouldn’t count on Russia coming to the rescue,” said Mr. Hess.

Anna Mikheeva contributed reporting.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/17/world/americas/venezuela-russia-economy.html

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US, Russia Vie Over the Future of Venezuela

KIatrina Trinko and Daniel Davis — Wed, 08 May 2019 23:31:40 +0000

The crisis in Venezuela is only getting worse by the week. And with Russian backing, it looks less likely that dictator Nicolas Maduro will step aside. Ana Quintana of The Heritage Foundation explains what’s at stake, and what’s going on. Read our interview, posted below, or listen to it on the podcast:

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Kate Trinko: Joining us today is Ana Quintana, a senior policy analyst specializing in Latin America at The Heritage Foundation. And she is here to explain to us what’s going on in Venezuela and what the U.S. should do. Ana, thanks for joining us.

The liberal Left continue to push their radical agenda against American values. The good news is there is a solution. Find out more >>

Ana Quintana: Thanks for having me.

Trinko: For those of us who don’t have the best memories. Walk us through why Juan Guaido, not Nicolas Maduro, is the true leader of Venezuela right now and how we got to this mess.

Quintana: Sure. So in May of 2018, Maduro held presidential elections. And they were incredibly fraudulent. … Practically, the only countries that recognized the result were Russia, China, Cuba, the Palestinian Authority, barely any countries recognized the result. So, back then dozens of countries said they would not recognize Maduro as a legitimate leader.

Fast-forward to Jan. 10, Maduro’s supposed inauguration day, that is when Juan Guaido became president because, according to Article 232 specifically, of Venezuela’s constitution, if there exists a void in the presidency, if there exists a legitimate void in the executive, the next in the line of succession is the head of the National Assembly. And Juan Guaido was an elected member of the National Assembly and he was the president of the National Assembly.

Daniel Davis: We’ve heard about a lot of violence happening right now, erupting in the streets. People are protesting. Guaido said that he was … [in] his last phase of revolution against Maduro and the government responded by running people over in the streets. That was last week. Where do things stand right now?

Quintana: … Last week has been interpreted as a huge failure for Guaido. That’s not the way I’m looking at it, right? So, Guaido … on Tuesday, was trying to lead a military uprising against Maduro and people have tried to classify this as a coup; it’s not. You can’t lead a coup against somebody who’s a usurper who is an illegitimate president. So, Guaido called upon the military to help him essentially pressure Maduro out of power.

That did not work but what ended up happening was, it exposed that 1. Maduro does not have the full control of the military. He spent 14 hours not appearing on TV and he didn’t call upon the military to protect him because it was revealed that his minister of defense was actually conspiring with Guaido against him.

2. He called on the paramilitaries to protect him, which is quite significant. … Typically when you would see these protests, Maduro would call the military to repress protesters. He called in the paramilitaries to repress the protesters. And you would always see kind of widespread death, that did not happen.

Also, Maduro’s chief of intelligence defected. That is huge. Imagine all the secrets this man knows. He is the chief of military and domestic intelligence.

Davis: Wow.

Quintana: So now the situation is, kind of fast-forward to today, Maduro is weak. Maduro’s incredibly vulnerable. He’s in a situation right now where he’s looking to his left and to his right and to his inner circle wondering, “Who’s conspiring behind my back? Who’s trying to hedge their bets? Who’s trying to plan for Day Zero when I’m not around?”

And, frankly, I think there is probably a lot more of them than not. So I think Guaido … has a significant advantage right now but I think we should recognize that it’s not inevitable that Maduro falls. Right? He could perpetually stay into power.

I mean, look at what happened in Syria with Assad. Assad, I remember, back when, at the height of the Syrian civil war, people said, “Oh, Assad only has five, six more months.” And look how the Russians guided him through this. And that’s exactly what the Russians are now doing with Maduro.

Trinko: Tell us more. Why is Russia caring about Venezuela and why are they getting involved?

Quintana: Oh, man. I mean, think about this. If you’re the Russians, this is low-hanging fruit. Right? This is an opportunity for you to stick your thumb in the eye of the United States. It’s an opportunity for you to insert yourself in the middle of a conflict and to distract attention away from all the other bad things that you’re doing in Ukraine, in the Middle East, in Syria, and kind of the other bad things that you want to do elsewhere.

And now the Russians have … inserted themselves inside of Venezuela and they’re essentially a power broker. So they can sit down with the United States and they can say, “Hey, you need my help solving this crisis. This is what I want. I want, in exchange for you to leave me alone in Ukraine, for you to let me have Crimea, for you to let me have X, Y, and Z.”

Also, the Venezuelans owe the Russians a lot of money. There is a lot of money, I think it’s probably close to $10 billion, if I’m not mistaken.

And for the Russians it’s to their benefit to have such a powerful ally in charge of such a powerful country like Venezuela. It’s the most oil-rich nation in the entire world. It’s a country that’s able to project a significant amount of power in Latin America. The Russia-Cuba relationship is always going to exist but Cuba doesn’t have the capacity nor the power to project and to spread influence like it once did.

Trinko: Just to follow-up on what you said about how Russia has a history of propping up dictators, are we talking military weapons here? Are we talking strategic advise?

How, when Maduro finds himself in this situation so isolated from some of his own people, as you discussed, some of his top people, can Russia practically help?

Quintana: Everything that you just stated right there. Venezuela has been the largest purchaser and recipient of Russian weapons—from tanks, I think it’s been about 100 tanks, about 5,000 surface-to-air missiles, MANPADS. It’s just been this wide plethora of weapons that the Venezuelans have purchased from the Russians.

… You have dozens, if not hundreds, of Russian military advisers inside of Venezuela. The Russians are providing the Venezuelans with political advise.

… There’s an outsized value of Russia’s contributions to Maduro right now, regardless of how weak he is. Because he’s incredibly weak, he has nobody around him that he can trust, but he does have the Russians.

… Maduro knows that he is protected because right now, he’s internationalized this conflict. He has now made this a conflict between Russia and the United States. And he knows by raising these stakes and not just making it something between he himself, this South American dictator, he is now able to project a lot more power.

Davis: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the president have spoken pretty strongly against what Russia’s doing. And Cuba. But … at the end of the day, what do they do? What can they do? To stop, cut off Russia’s influence? Apart from, like you were saying, conceding stuff in Eastern Europe.

Quintana: Yeah, no, they definitely shouldn’t sit down at a negotiating table with the Russians and concede anything. Nor with the Cubans. I definitely think, 1. They need to sit down and talk with the Cubans and the Russians. But I think, this is a time to make them pay a cost. They cannot get away with what they have been doing inside of Venezuela, with what they’ve continued to do for God knows how many years.

This is an opportunity right now to look at visa and travel restrictions against Russian oligarchs. Right? To hit them financially where it hurts. Because that’s where these guys respond.

These guys don’t respond to diplomatic statements and to condemnation and all these things. They don’t care about that. For them, they actually fundraise and make money off of that, it makes them look good when the United States attacks them, frankly.

And on the Cuba side of things, I think that’s where the administration has been incredibly tough by implementing … this host of … sectoral sanctions and opening Cuba up to the possibility of being sued by American companies. But, frankly, I think it’s very difficult for the United States to do a lot of this when our European partners aren’t being helpful.

Trinko: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo didn’t rule out military action. Do you think there’s any chance that Venezuela could be the next Iraq or Afghanistan?

Quintana: … The regime of Nicolas Maduro, this is not a regime of politicians. This is a regime of thugs. And you don’t speak to them in statesmen-like diplomatic terms. You talk to them like thugs and you scare them like thugs and I think … we should be scaring these guys. We should scare them out of power.

That being said, I think at this juncture, at this point, any sort of military intervention would have the complete opposite adverse effect. It would be the absolute worst thing this administration could do.

… There are some ideas that have been floated around, a tactical precision strike to take out key military installations. That would be stupid because that would draw the United States into this long-term peacekeeping operation. And then on the other side, a ground invasion, the same thing. It would also draw the United States into a long-term peacekeeping operation and then there’s a humanitarian fallout.

… There’s little to be gained and so much more to be lost and we’ve seen it in Libya. We’ve seen it in so many other countries where we think we can take a dictator out quickly, militarily, and it just devolves into such an even bigger mess.

Davis: And you can’t have a U.N. force in there, right? Because Russia’s on the Security Council. So they would veto everything.

Quintana: … And that’s the other challenge, right? Russia’s on the U.N.—

Davis: Once again, highlighting the uselessness of the Security Council.

Quintana: It highlights the … ridiculousness of much of the U.N. system. That it gives this outsized influence to countries like Russia and China, that just don’t have a serious humanitarian bone in their body. No.

Davis: Recently, … Rep. Ilhan Omar made a comment about Venezuela. She told Democracy Now, quote, “A lot of the policies that we have put in place has kind of helped lead the devastation in Venezuela. And we’ve sort of set the stage for where we’re arriving today.” End quote.

And, quote, “This particular bullying and the use of sanctions to eventually intervene and make regime change really does not help the people of countries like Venezuela, and it certainly does not help and is not in the interest of the United States.”

Thoughts?

Quintana: It’s like there’s these boiler plate quotes that all the progressives use to criticize anything that the United States does when they have no concept of what exactly is happening.

U.S. sanctions have largely been against corrupt Venezuelan government officials for humanitarian reasons. They have been to cut off the financial access for these regime officials to make money and to stop them from drug trafficking.

One of the sanctions was against then-Vice President Tareck El Aissami, who was found to be a drug trafficker along with Los Zetas and they’ve discovered over $500 million of drug trafficking-related assets in the United States.

I don’t understand how seizing $500 million of narcotics-related assets that were trafficked with Los Zetas hurts the Venezuelan people. She has no idea what she’s talking about.

Trinko: Speaking of the Venezuelan people, how are they faring right now? Are there food shortages? Or are they facing violence? What is life like in Venezuela right now?

Davis: And what about that electricity outage? Is that still happening, too?

Quintana: The electricity outages are horrible. … Consider just how much the regime has destroyed the country.

Venezuela is the most oil-rich nation in the entire world. This is a country that literally used to produce about 3.5, 3.6 million barrels of oil per day. … It had enough oil to export and to use for it’s own domestic consumption. It’s now producing about 900,000 barrels of oil per day; it’s gone down fourfold in the last 10 years. And half of that oil is used to service external debt.

So Venezuela is in a position right now where it’s importing refined oil for it’s own internal consumption. Which is just … mind-boggling to consider that this is a country that has the most oil resource.

These electricity shortages are a consequence of just not investing in the energy infrastructure. They just did not care. The regime has stolen so much money, they’ve used the oil industry as a slush fund for party loyalists.

Ffor the average Venezuelan, it’s estimated that 90% of people live in poverty. About 5 million Venezuelans are going to leave the country by the end of this year. Venezuelan migrants and refugees are scattered all throughout Latin America. There’s about 2 million right now in Colombia.

The situation is bad. It is a dire, dire humanitarian catastrophe and the worst part is, it’s a man-made crisis.

Davis: Well, Ana Quintana, as always, we appreciate your expertise. We’ll be watching the situation unfold. Thank you.

Quintana: No, thank you guys.

Source: https://www.dailysignal.com/2019/05/08/us-russia-vie-over-the-future-of-venezuela/

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Pompeo: Maduro wanted to leave Venezuela, Russia told him to stay

Fox Business — Sat, 04 May 2019 16:45:19 +0000

The post Pompeo: Maduro wanted to leave Venezuela, Russia told him to stay first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Kremlin’s troop deployment frustrates U.S. ambition in Venezuela

Kang Jie — Tue, 02 Apr 2019 12:26:28 +0000

Editor’s Note: Kang Jie is an assistant research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies. The article reflects the author’s opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

A week ago, two Russian military transport aircraft transported 100 troops and 35 tons of military equipment to the Venezuelan capital Caracas.

This move can be regarded as a response to the Donald Trump administration’s coup threats to the Venezuelan government. Venezuela, a country struggling through difficult moments, has become a new arena for the West-Russia strategic competition.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has proved to be more resilient than what the West thought.

Although the Trump administration exhausted all kinds of tricks from economic sanctions to political sabotages to threats of military intervention, and even attempted to drive a wedge between Maduro and his generals, Venezuelans are well aware that the U.S. is just bluffing.

It is hard to believe that a president trying to withdraw troops from the quagmire of Syria and Afghanistan will allow Latin America, the ‘‘backyard” of the United States, to become another Fragile Crescent.

The military personnel sent by Russia will help Venezuela to maintain its military assets, assess its current security situation and military readiness, and even prepare for future operations. For many observers, the Kremlin’s decisive move has frustrated the White House that lacks enough strategic will.

Juan Guaidó, the self-proclaimed opposition leader, has missed his best opportunity. His anti-government campaign received nothing except for “moral” support. Moreover, at the end of February, his constitutional basis legitimating himself as ‘‘interim president” – though not sufficient – has expired.

People march in Lafayette Park in Washington, U.S., to protest against Washington’s intervention in Venezuela, March 30, 2019. /VCG Photo

Stabilizing domestic political order is a priority for Venezuela at the current stage. Reforms can only yield good results in a healthy political order.

A friend of mine doing businesses in Venezuela told me earlier that local people hold a realist view about the current political turmoil. Although many people are dissatisfied with the status quo, more of them do not trust the West-endorsed opposition leader.

They are concerned that the Western-educated young politician lacks enough problem-solving expertise and political experiences, a prerequisite to bringing Venezuela stability and prosperity.

Venezuelans believe that while reforms must be taken to improve the economic situation, no reform can be done overnight. They do not accept reforms that are carried out at the expense of stability and order. The tragedy that occurred in Syria has really taught them a lesson.

What Venezuela needs is genuine humanitarian assistance without any additional political conditions. China has just assisted the Venezuelan government with 65 tons of urgently needed medicine and medical supplies.

History has repeatedly shown that foreign interventions will only complicate the situation and will not help solve problems. China has no intention to interfere with Venezuela’s domestic affairs and its humanitarian supplies should not be regarded as a Trojan horse.

In the long run, Venezuela needs a new development approach. Since the first oil field Zumaque was put into production in 1914, the oil industry has become the lifeblood of Venezuela. The country’s historical dependence on the global oil market has thwarted it from becoming a healthy and autonomous economy.

Only by re-industrialization and establishing an independent diversified economic system can Venezuela escape the current trap and embrace a prosperous future.

(Cover photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) speaks to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro during their meeting at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, Russia, December 5, 2018. /VCG Photo)

Source: https://news.cgtn.com/news/3d3d514d32637a4e33457a6333566d54/index.html

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Russia: Venezuela hasn’t asked for military assistance

Daily Mail — Mon, 11 Feb 2019 12:56:48 +0000

MOSCOW (AP) – A senior Russian diplomat says Venezuela hasn’t asked Russia for military assistance amid the South American country’s political crisis.

Alexander Shchetinin, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Latin America department, said Monday that Moscow hasn’t received any such request from Caracas, according to Russian news reports.

Asked to compare the situation in Venezuela to Syria, where Russia has waged a military campaign to shore up President Bashar Assad’s government, Shchetinin said “there is a big difference” between Syria and Venezuela but wouldn’t elaborate.

At the same time, the Russian diplomat strongly warned the U.S. against making calls on the Venezuelan military to drop support for President Nicolas Maduro, saying it represented an “unthinkable meddling into foreign affairs of a sovereign nation.”

Venezuelan Bolivarian Army soldiers stand guard at the Tienditas International Bridge that links Colombia and Venezuela, near Urena, Venezuela, Friday, Feb. 8, 2019. As humanitarian aid kits were being packed into individual white bags in the city of Cucuta, just across the river from Venezuela, U.S. officials and Venezuelan opposition leaders appealed to the military to the let the aid through. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-6691249/Russia-Venezuela-asked-military-assistance.html

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