Four Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine have said they are planning to hold “referendums” on joining the Russian Federation in a series of coordinated announcements that could indicate the Kremlin has made a decision to formally annex the territories.

Moscow may be betting that a formal annexation would help halt Russian territorial losses, after a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive that has reclaimed large portions of territory in the Kharkiv region.

But Ukraine and the west have indicated that they will not recognise the annexations – and that Russia’s new territorial claims will not slow Ukraine reclaiming its sovereign land.

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Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/20/four-occupied-ukraine-regions-plan-votes-on-joining-russian-federation

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Oleg Tyapkin, head of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s department responsible for relations with Europe, said that Moscow’s reaction to the buildup of NATO forces in Poland would be proportionate, Reuters reported, citing Russian news agency Interfax.

“The reaction, as always, will be proportionate and appropriate, aimed at neutralizing potential threats to the security of the Russian Federation,” Tyapkin said.

The day before, Polish Ambassador to Ukraine Bartosz Cichocki said that Poland takes quite seriously public threats by Russian politicians against the country, as well as discussions on Russian television about nuclear strikes against Poland.

Source: https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-says-nato-force-buildup-in-poland-will-see-proportionate-response-50249291.html

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Speaking during an interview on The New Voice of Ukraine, Ukrainian military spy Kyrylo Budanov said the war is unlikely to end with Putin still alive. However, he did not offer any potential details of how the Russian president, who he called a “war criminal,” could be offed.

“Leaving him a way to retreat is one of the strategies, but it is almost unrealistic,” Budanov said. “He is a war criminal for the whole world. This is his end, he drove himself into a dead end.”

Budanov added that Russia could take one of two options once Putin is out of power. The first option is that the country could be divided into multiple parts. The second option is the “relative preservation of the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation when changing the country’s leadership.”

The comments from Ukraine’s top military intelligence official come as Putin is rumored to be undergoing cancer surgery soon, according to a video published on the Telegram channel “General SVR.” The Russian president is also rumored to temporarily hand over control of the country’s government to former FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev while he recovers from the procedure.

Speculations about Putin’s health come after the Russian leader appeared to be unsteady and fidgety during a church service on Orthodox Easter. The president was also seen swaying and biting his lips during the occasion.

The week before Orthodox Easter Sunday, Putin was also seen looking bloated and was recorded tightly gripping the table with his right hand as soon as he sat down during his meeting with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

News about the Russian president’s rumored illness comes days in advance of May 9, the day Russians celebrate the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany. Military analysts, including Ukraine’s intelligence agency, have warned that the Kremlin could order mass mobilization in Ukraine on that day.

As of Monday, Russian forces have made little progress in their attempt to take over the Donbas region of Ukraine. Russian troops have, however, continued their attack on several Ukrainian cities, including a missile strike in the southern city of Odesa.

Source: https://www.ibtimes.com.au/russia-ukraine-war-will-end-putins-death-top-spy-says-1813844

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Despite Moscow’s statement, about 80 000 Russian military men are still left on the border with Ukraine, The New York Times writes, referring to a high-ranking official in the Pentagon, UATV informs.

According to the newspaper, Russia has withdrawn only a few thousand troops, and a large number is still at the border. Many units have left their trucks and armored vehicles, which is a signal that they can return.

At the same time, US military officials are unsure about Putin’s missions.

According to UATV, last month the Russian Federation accumulated over 150 000 soldiers along the Ukrainian borders. Then the whole world was worried about the possibility of a full-scale invasion to Ukraine.

On April 23, Russia began to withdraw its troops from the Ukrainian border and from the occupied Crimea to the points of permanent deployment.

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Tourists in October on the Yankito Plateau on Iturup Island, the largest one of the Kuril Islands, known in Japan as the Northern Territories (Yuri Smityuk/TASS via Getty Images)

The decades-old dispute between Russia and Japan over the status of the Kuril Islands is far from over. Tokyo, which refers to the islands as the Northern Territories, still insists on a peace treaty with Moscow that would result in Russia’s return of at least two out of four islands to Japan, while the Kremlin keeps militarizing the disputed territory.

The chain of islands ­– stretching between the Japanese island of Hokkaido at the southern end and the Russian Kamchatka Peninsula in the north – was conquered by the Soviet Union at the end of the Second World War. Ever since, Moscow has considered the Kuril Islands an integral part of Russia. Japan thinks otherwise.

The four islands are variously known in Russia and Japan as either Shikotan, Habomai Islets/Khabomai, Kunashiri/Kunashir and Etorofu/Iturup. In 1956, the Soviet Union and Japan signed a joint declaration providing for the end of the state of war, and for restoration of diplomatic relations between USSR and Japan. The document also included a transfer of Habomai and Shikotan to Japan. But a dispute has lingered with no formal peace treaty between the two nations. Russia is the successor state of the Soviet Union, and it leaders have said on several occasions that they were ready to have territorial talks with Japan on the basis of the joint declaration.

The most recent talks between Russia and Japan over the status of the islands were held in early 2019. Japan’s then prime minister Shinzo Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to accelerate negotiations based on the 1956 document, which stated that the Habomai islets and Shikotan would be handed back to Japan, and the question of Kunashiri and Etorofu was to be settled during negotiations for a peace treaty.

Indications that the Kremlin was willing to discuss the status of Habomai islets and Shikotan was seen by some Russian nationalists as a treason, particularly in Sakhalin Oblast, the region which comprises the island of Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. Recent constitutional changes in Russia suggest this view has only hardened. Even though the two islands represent only 7% of the land in question, the new Russian constitution enacted in July this year includes a ban on “any alienation of Russian territories”. This would seem to preclude the return of even one square metre of Russian territory to Japan.

Japanese leaders, on the other hand, claim that the Russian Federation, as the legal successor to the Soviet Union, is obliged to scrupulously observe all of past obligations, including the unfulfilled subparagraph on the territorial issue. Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga recently said Tokyo plans to finalize the talks on the dispute.

“We need to achieve closure in the talks on the Northern Territories, instead of postponing it for future generations,” Suga said, and pointed out that he will strive for “comprehensive development of relations with Russia, including the signing of a peace agreement”.

All this ambition seems likely to go unfulfilled. And such a conclusion doesn’t only spring from more than 60 years of diplomatic stalemate, but also the stubborn facts of control on the ground.

Russian troops periodically conduct military drills on the disputed islands and may indeed go further. The Kremlin reportedly plans to deploy T-72B3 battle tanks to the Kuril Islands, where they can be used to destroy enemy assault forces and small enemy ships. In October, Russia deployed S-300V4 air defense missile systems to the territory for the first time to conduct military exercises. Although no one really expects Japan would invade the islands, Moscow clearly wants to make a show it does not intend to hand them over, either. With thousands of US troops already stationed in Japan, it’s not beyond some Russian analysts to speculate that Washington could establish naval bases in the Kuril Islands once Moscow and Tokyo resolve their territorial dispute.

Plus there is the potential wealth. The islands are surrounded by rich fishing grounds and are thought to have offshore reserves of oil and gas – although the value of such hydrocarbon claims are speculative. In addition, rare rhenium deposits have been found near the Kudriavy volcano on Etorofu.

Finally, a potential return of the Kuril Islands to Japan would be interpreted as a clear sign of Russian weakness, which means that Moscow could also face strong pressure from the West to return Crimea to Ukraine. Such a process would not only mean Russian humiliation in the global arena, but could also result in a serious political crisis that could lead to a breakup of the Russian Federation.

The prospective blow to Russian prestige therefore makes the territory is too important for the Kremlin to hand it over to Japan.

Source: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/why-russia-will-not-return-kuril-islands-japan

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Russia has deployed additional armed vehicles and soldiers to its border with Belarus amid an unprecedented escalation of tensions between Moscow and neighboring Minsk.

On Wednesday, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has reported that over 3,000 troops and more than 800 items of armament and military hardware, including main battle tanks,  will deploy to military training grounds along the border with Belarus.

“Over 3,000 personnel of the guards combined arms army of the Western Military District and about 800 military vehicles and special equipment involved in exercises at training grounds in the Voronezh, Moscow, Bryansk, Belgorod, Smolensk, and Kursk regions,” according to a recent service news release.

At the same time, Belarus kick off military exercises near the Russian border. The Belarus military is deploying additional troops to the border with Russia in the Vitebsk region.

Official Minsk fears that Russia may take advantage of the instability in the country and carry out the Ukrainian scenario to occupy part of the territories ahead of August’s presidential election.

Alexander Lukashenko, the country’s president for the past 25 years, has publicly accused Russia and the west of seeking to interfere in the country’s elections. He claimed last week that Russian mercenaries could be sent to the country to organize a “Maidan”, a reference to the 2014 Ukrainian revolution that overthrew the then-president, Viktor Yanukovych.

Source: https://defence-blog.com/news/army/russia-deploys-tanks-to-belarus-border-amid-unprecedented-escalation-of-tensions.html

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