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Biden to travel to Europe next week for NATO summit on war in Ukraine

Fri, 18 Mar 2022 15:18:31 +0000

President Biden is scheduled to travel to Europe next week for a NATO summit about the war in Ukraine, the White House says.

FAST FACTS
—Residents of Mariupol, Ukraine, have reportedly contacted a human rights organization with complaints that Russian forces have occupied an intensive care hospital.

—Three European leaders are expected to travel to the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on Tuesday before a 35-hour curfew for civilians takes effect as Russian forces advance and the city is under sustained shelling.

—The United Nations says nearly 3 million people have fled Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Tuesday that sanctions it’s imposing on President Biden and other top U.S. officials are “the inevitable consequence of the extremely Russophobic course taken by the current U.S. Administration.”

“In response to a series of unprecedented sanctions prohibiting, among other things, entry into the United States for top officials of the Russian Federation… the Russian ‘stop list’ includes on the basis of reciprocity President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, Secretary of Defense Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Milley, as well as a number of departmental heads and well-known American figures,” it said in a statement.

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki, Hunter Biden and Hillary Clinton are also among those Russia says it is sanctioning.

“This step, taken as a counter reaction, was the inevitable consequence of the extremely Russophobic course taken by the current U.S. Administration, which, in a desperate attempt to maintain American hegemony, has staked, discarding all decency, on the frontal containment of Russia,” it added.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/ukraine-russia-live-updates-03-15-2022

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Putin warns NATO of Russia’s unstoppable missiles if his ‘red line’ in Ukraine is crossed

John Haltiwanger — Tue, 30 Nov 2021 00:53:43 +0000

Putin warned NATO that deploying troops or advanced missiles to Ukraine would cross a “red line.”
The Russian leader said Moscow would be forced to take action while boasting about Russia’s hypersonic missiles.
Hypersonic missiles are designed to be virtually unstoppable, and can fly at least five times the speed of sound.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday warned NATO against crossing a “red line” in Ukraine, underscoring that Moscow would have no choice but to respond while boasting about Russia’s hypersonic missile development.

Putin said that the deployment of NATO troops or advanced missile systems on Ukrainian soil that could strike Moscow within minutes would be a step too far for Russia. NATO has not taken any steps along these lines.

“If some kind of strike systems appear on the territory of Ukraine, the flight time to Moscow will be seven to 10 minutes, and five minutes in the case of a hypersonic weapon being deployed. Just imagine,” Putin said.

“What are we to do in such a scenario? We will have to then create something similar in relation to those who threaten us in that way. And we can do that now,” Putin added, referencing Russia’s recent tests of a hypersonic missile.

Putin has said the Zircon hypersonic cruise missile, which is poised to enter service with the Russian Navy in 2022, is capable of flying nine times the speed of sound and has a range of roughly 620 miles, according to the Associated Press. On Tuesday, Putin emphasized that the missile could reach some targets within “just five minutes.”

Hypersonic missiles are designed to be virtually unstoppable and are capable of flying at least five times the speed of sound. The US, Russia, and China are locked in a global arms race to develop hypersonic weapons.

A top Space Force official earlier this month said that the US is “not as advanced as the Chinese or the Russians in terms of hypersonic programs.”

Putin’s warning to NATO on Tuesday came amid fears that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine.

For the second time this year, tens of thousands of Russian troops have amassed along Ukraine’s border.

The Kremlin denies any plans to invade, while blaming NATO for the tensions. Ukraine has said that more than 90,000 Russian troops have gathered on its border, and Ukrainian President Voldymyr Zelensky last week warned that he’d uncovered a coup plot involving Russians. It’s unclear what Putin will do next, but he has the region on edge.

Ivo Daalder, the US ambassador to NATO from 2009 to 2013, recently told Insider, “There is a major risk of Russian military activity in Ukraine in the next few months. All the signs point to a major build up of military capability.”

The Russian president views the increased influence of the US and NATO in Ukraine, a former Soviet republic and Russia’s nextdoor neighbor, as a major security threat. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but maintains a robust partnership with the alliance.

Ukraine lies at the center of the contentious dynamic between Moscow and the West. In 2014, Russian forces entered Crimea and it was unilaterally annexed by Putin, prompting outcry around the world. And since that year, Kremlin-backed rebels have been fighting a war against Ukrainian troops in the eastern Donbass region. The conflict has claimed over 13,000 lives.

The US has provided over $2.5 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since 2014, and there’s bipartisan support in Congress for increasing that aid.

Putin on Tuesday suggested that Russia and the West need to reach new security agreements in order to avoid further conflict, the Associated Press reported.

“The matter is not whether to send troops or not, go to war or not, but to establish a more fair and stable development and taking into account security interests of all international players,” Putin said. “If we sincerely strive for that, no one will fear any threats.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday warned Russia that “renewed aggression” to Ukraine “can trigger serious consequences.”

Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-boasts-of-russias-hypersonic-missiles-in-warning-to-nato-over-ukraine-2021-11

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NATO chief wary of Russian military moves near Ukraine

AP — Mon, 15 Nov 2021 16:15:57 +0000

BRUSSELS (AP) — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg urged Russia on Monday to be more transparent about its military activities near Ukraine but he stopped short of suggesting that Moscow might be preparing to invade its former Soviet neighbor.

Ukraine claims that Russia kept tens of thousands of troops and equipment near their common border after conducting war games earlier this year. Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and has supported a separatist insurgency that broke out that year in eastern Ukraine and still controls territory there.

The United States has warned the European Union to be wary of Russia’s intentions, but EU diplomats say that while they have noticed Moscow’s military buildup, they do not believe that Russia might launch action anytime soon.

“We call on Russia to be transparent about its military activities,” Stoltenberg told reporters after talks in Brussels with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. “It is important to prevent escalations and reduce tensions.”

Asked whether he fears a possible invasion, Stoltenberg said: “what we see is a significant, large Russian military build-up. We see an unusual concentration of troops. And we know that Russia has been willing to use these types of military capabilities before to conduct aggressive actions against Ukraine.”

“I think it’s important also that we don’t now increase tensions, but we have to be clear-eyed, we need to be realistic about the challenges we face,” he said.

Ukraine’s defense ministry claims that about 90,000 Russian troops are stationed not far from their border and in rebel-controlled areas in Ukraine’s east. It said units of the Russian 41st army have remained in Yelnya, a town 260 kilometers (about 160 miles) north of the Ukrainian border.

Kuleba said “we have to be ready for all scenarios, for all options,” and he called for help from the 30-country military organization “to strengthen the resilience of Ukraine.”

Source: https://apnews.com/article/european-union-jens-stoltenberg-ukraine-moscow-europe-7c12fbc1b841f11c5cbf27e238f14a29

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Putin orders surprise combat readiness inspection for Russian army

Press TV — Mon, 24 Jun 2019 22:14:06 +0000

Russian armed forces in the Central Military District were put on high alert on Monday (June 24) after Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President and Supreme Commander-in-Chief, announced drills to test their combat readiness.

Iskander, S-300, and S-400 missile systems, Btr-82 Armoured Personnel Carriers were seen demonstrating their fighting capabilities and combat readiness on the video footage released on Monday by the Russian Defense Ministry.

Military exercises were intended to ensure military security in the Central Asian region and to prevent terrorist threats, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu said.

About 150,000 troops and more than 20,000 weapons were involved in the surprise combat readiness inspection of the Russian Army.

Military exercises will continue until Friday (June 28).

(Source: Reuters)

Source: https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/06/24/599353/Putin-orders-surprise-combat-readiness-inspection-for-Russian-army

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Naval Muscle: Russia’s Northern Fleet Is Getting Some Seriously Dangerous Submarines

Mark Episkopos — Sun, 17 Mar 2019 09:58:13 +0000

The Northern Fleet is now taking a major step to modernize its submarine force with a new hardware shipment slated for later this year.

From the Petr Velikiy battlecruiser to the Admiral Gorshkov frigate, Russia’s Northern Fleet is home to some of the newest, most advanced Russian surface ships. The same cannot be said of its aging submarine lineup, however. The Northern Fleet submarine force is largely comprised of 1980’s Soviet Detla IV and Sierra models, which are becoming increasingly harder and more expensive to maintain with incremental updates.

The Northern Fleet is now taking a major step to modernize its submarine force with a new hardware shipment slated for later this year. Admiral and Fleet Commander Nikolai Yevmenov informed Russian state news that, “In 2019, we are expecting the arrival of new logistics vessels and submarines.” Yevmenov added that the new submarines will be Knyaz Vladimir and Kazan, from the Borei and Yasen classes respectively.

Laid down in 2012, Knyaz Vladimir is the first entry in a newer line of 955A– also known as Borei II– submarines. The 955A generation brings several iterative improvementsover its 955 predecessors: target acquisition upgrades, new onboard electronics, updated communication systems, and redesigned living quarters.

Knyaz Vladimir will join the very first Borei vessel, Yuri Dolgorukiy , in replacing the Delta IV line as the Northern Fleet’s staple strategic nuclear submarine. Generic performance improvements notwithstanding, the Borei line introduces a critical, sorely-needed update to Russia’s nuclear triad: the new Bulava missile system . Boasting a 550 kiloton warhead and an effective range of up to 10,000 kilometers, the Russian Navy seeks to make Bulava-equipped Borei vessels the cornerstone of their nuclear submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) deterrent for decades to come.

On the tactical front, the introduction of Kazan marks a serious first step in the revitalization of the Northern Fleet’s decades-old attack submarine lineup. The second Yasen-class vessel, Kazan offers an expanded and markedly more deadly armament suite over its Akula and Oscar-class predecessors. Not only does the Yasen class support the standard submarine-launched variant of the Kalibr land attack cruise missile, but it apparently also accommodates the heavier, larger Kalibr-M missile with roughly double the range, at 4,500 versus 1,500 to 2,500 kilometers.

As the Arctic region becomes ever more militarized in the context of global Russia-NATO competition, it is hardly surprising that the Russian Navy is actively investing in the Northern Fleet. But submarine modernization comes neither cheap nor fast, and the Kremlin is unlikely to unlikely to commit the massive resources required to replace every Soviet-era submarine in the Northern Fleet roster with a modernized equivalent.

With two more Borei vessels commissioned over the next several years alone, the Delta IV line is on track to be completely phased out before 2040. But attack submarines pose a much more difficult value proposition, as a single Yasen vessel reportedly costs twice as much as its Borei counterpart.

So, where does the Northern Fleet go from here?

One potential route is consolidation; that is, saturating the Northern Fleet with modernized submarines at the expense of shrinking its total submarine roster. The other is iteration in the form of deep refits of existing submarines, as the Pacific Fleet has recently done with a modernized batch of old Kilo models.

Of course, the two are not mutually exclusive. It’s perfectly possible that Russia will opt for any number of hybrid development approaches; for instance, mass-producing new nuclear strategic submarines while extending the lifespan of existing attack submarines for as long as technically possible.

Mark Episkopos is a frequent contributor to The National Interest and serves as research assistant at the Center for the National Interest. Mark is also a PhD student in History at American University.

Source: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/naval-muscle-russias-northern-fleet-getting-some-seriously-dangerous-submarines-47827

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Russia develops new frigates capable of carrying nearly 50 cruise missiles – source

TASS (Russia) — Sun, 17 Mar 2019 09:39:41 +0000

The frigates will have a displacement of up to 7,000 tonnes

Kalibr cruise missile – Department of Press Service and Information of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation/TASS

MOSCOW, March 17. /TASS/. The Northern design bureau has started developing the construction documentation for modernized frigates of Project 22350M capable of carrying up to 48 Kalibr cruise missiles, a source in the defense and production sector told TASS on Sunday.

“The Northern design bureau has completed designing frigates of Project 22350M and is now developing working design documentation for these vessels in line with the customer’s tactical and technical order,” the source said.

The frigates will have a displacement of up to 7,000 tonnes. The vessels will also carry Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.

The new frigates will have a universal automated fire control system for all destruction means. “This will significantly boost their combat capability,” the source stressed.

Russia’s Navy currently has in its service the lead ship of project 22350, the Admiral Gorshkov. The first serial Admiral Kasatonov frigate of project 22350 is running trials. These ships have a displacement of 4,500 tonnes, and each of them can carry up to 16 Kalibr cruise missiles.

Source: http://tass.com/defense/1049002

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America is waking up to the critical threat that is Russia

Tom Rogan — Fri, 01 Mar 2019 16:53:40 +0000

A new Gallup poll released this week suggests that 52 percent of Americans regard the Russian military as a critical threat to U.S. interests. Those respondents are correct. A plurality of Americans, 32 percent, view Russia as our “greatest enemy today,” a stark difference from 19 percent last year, when a slight majority of Americans said North Korea was our greatest enemy.

Still, I respect the arguments of those who say Russia isn’t a critical threat. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. for example, believes Russian-U.S. relations would be greatly improved were the U.S. respectful of Russia’s near-border interests. While I disagree with Paul, his argument does match Russia’s own claims. It’s also true that the Russian armed forces are not, at least in parity to the U.S., what they were during the mid-period of the Cold War. Extending this point, Daniel DePetris suggests that Russia’s smaller economy, lower military expenditure, and localized interests mean it poses no critical threat to the west.

But those who believe Russia is a critical threat are ultimately correct. The nature of Vladimir Putin’s threat is measured not by economics or military spending, but rather by its intent and action. On those counts, Russia has shown impressive ability to challenge American global influence, and threaten U.S. security interests.

When it comes to global influence, Putin has cultivated an impressive mercantile relationship with India. He has drawn Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman towards Moscow (although President Trump’s retention of some military forces in Syria will draw the Saudis back to Washington’s corner). Putin has forged closer relations with China. At the United Nations, Russia has successfully obstructed U.S. policy interests on Syria, Ukraine, and Venezuela.

Russia has also successfully used coercive power to pose a critical threat to America. Russia’s military now possesses maneuver warfare capabilities to challenge NATO in Europe. Russian intelligence officers wage campaigns of global assassination and intimidation. As we’ve seen in numerous elections around the western world, Russian cyberoffensive capabilities are formidable, varied, and aggressive.

Yet what draws all these threats together is their strategic motivation: Putin’s desire to degrade the U.S.-led international order, subjugate democracies in eastern and central Europe, and destabilize western civil societies.

In short, while the Gallup respondents are wrong to identify Russia as America’s greatest adversary ( that’s China), they are right to identify Russia as a critical threat.

Source: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/america-is-waking-up-to-the-critical-threat-that-is-russia

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As Russia stokes tensions with Ukraine, it’s trying to gain a military edge over NATO elsewhere in Europe

Michael Armstrong — Thu, 29 Nov 2018 19:14:52 +0000

The Russian large landing ship Azov fires missiles during a rehearsal for the Navy Day parade in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol, Crimea, July 27, 2017. REUTERS/Pavel Rebrov

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have spiked after Russia fire upon and seized Ukrainian ships on Sunday in the Black Sea.
Russia’s military presence in the Black Sea region has increased since the 2014 annexation of Crimea, and Moscow has made similar moves elsewhere.
Russian capabilities present specific challenges to NATO — something the alliance is well aware of.

A confrontation between Russian and Ukrainian ships in the Black Sea this weekend ended with Ukraine’s ships seized and its sailors jailed.

It was the first direct clash between Moscow and Kiev in years, and it stoked tensions that have been elevated for years, especially after Russia intervened in Ukraine in 2014 and seized the Crimean Peninsula and then backed separatist movements along Ukraine’s eastern border.

Two Ukrainian navy ships sailing near Crimea.

Ukrainian Navy Press Service via AP

The November 25 clash took place in the Kerch Strait, which divides Crimea and mainland Russia and connects the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov. Photos show Russia appears to have struck one of the Ukrainian ships with a heavy weapon, such as a 30mm gun or missile.

Since claiming Crimea, Russia has taken a more aggressive stance toward the Sea of Azov, declaring invalid a 2003 agreement in which Moscow and Kiev agreed to share the body of water.

In 2015, Russia began construction of a bridge over the Kerch Strait. The sea is already the world’s shallowest, no deeper than 50 feet, and the height of the bridge further restricted the size of ships that could pass through.

The road-and-rail bridge constructed to connect the Russian mainland with the Crimean Peninsula, in the Kerch Strait, Crimea, April 25, 2018.

REUTERS/Pavel Rebrov

Russia has also interfered with Ukrainian shipping in the area and at times closed the strait completely — all of which is particularly challenging for Ukraine, which has major ports on the Sea of Azov.

Ukraine and Russia have both pursued a military buildup in the area, but Russia has more forces and their activity has been more substantial.

Moscow’s moves in the Black Sea region are of a piece of with what it’s been doing throughout Eastern Europe amid heightened tensions with NATO.

‘An arc of A2/AD’

Since 2014, Russia has “built up tremendous amounts of capability” in Crimea, said Omar Lamrani, a senior military analyst at geopolitical-analysis firm Stratfor.

Tensions between Ukraine and Russia have been high since 2014, and NATO has taken a more active role in the region. -Google Maps

Russian forces in the area now amount to about 30,000 troops and more than 100 combat aircraft, up from dozens that were in the area prior to the takeover, Lamrani said. (In May, 17 Russian planes swarmed a British warship sailing just 30 miles from Crimea.)

“They have now three battalions of S-400s, plus other air-defense systems, like the S-300 [and the] Buk M2,” Lamrani said. Another division of S-400 missiles is on its way to Crimea, where it will be the fourth on duty, according to Russian state media.

“They installed a number of coastal missile-defense batteries” firing weapons like Bastion and Bal cruise missiles, which can strike land and sea targets, Lamrani said. Russian state media also said this week that more Bal and other anti-ship missiles were headed to the Crimean city of Kerch, which overlooks the strait of the same name.

“They have some Iskander missiles they rotate through the area, lots of new artillery systems, lots of new armor,” Lamrani added, referring to Russian short-range, nuclear-capable cruise missiles. “They didn’t really have main battle tanks there before 2014. Now they do.”

Russian tank crew members wait for their T-72B tank to move off a train after arriving at a train station in Gvardeiskoye near the Crimean city of Simferopol, March 31, 2014.

REUTERS/Yannis Behrakis

Russia sees Crimea as a stronghold from which to pressure Ukraine and assert control over a broader swath of the Black Sea, Lamrani said.

Weapons like the S-400 and coastal-defense systems can be employed as a part of anti-access/area-denial, or A2/AD, strategy, and their presence in Crimea and elsewhere along Russia’s eastern frontiers has garnered attention from NATO.

Russian “A2/AD capability [runs] from the high north through Kaliningrad, down to Crimea and all the way down into [Russia’s] base at Tartus in Syria,” Ben Hodges, who commanded the US Army in Europe before retiring at the end of 2017, told Business Insider at the beginning of November.

The S-400, considered Russia’s most advanced air-defense system, is also deployed in Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea and near Latakia on the Syrian coast. The S-300, which is older but still highly capable, has been deployed in the region, including in the breakaway Georgian province of Abkhazia, which borders the Black Sea.

“There are varying degrees of capabilities” at each of those sites, Hodges added, “but the one in Kaliningrad and the one in Crimea are the most substantial, with air- and missile-defense and anti-ship missiles and several thousands of troops” from Russia’s army, navy, and air force. “That’s part of creating an arc of A2/AD, if you will.”

Russia S-400 air-defense systems in Syria. -Russian Defense Ministry

Some of the NATO members bordering the sea, like Romania and Bulgaria, don’t have a major naval presence there, but Turkey would likely prevent Russia from having free reign in the sea.

With the vantage point provided by Crimea, Russian combat aircraft and land-based weapons systems like the S-400 and Bal missiles can extend their reach hundreds of miles into and over the Black Sea.

“They can effectively support their navy with an umbrella defense of surface-to-air missiles and anti-ship missile systems that can keep NATO away in case of any threat,” Lamrani said.

A2/AD systems could provide similar defense in a place like Kaliningrad, which has Russia’s only year-round, ice-free Baltic Sea port and is close to St. Petersburg, Russia’s second-largest city. In western Syria, where Russian S-400 systems have already been deployed, US-led coalition forces have worked hard to avoid Russian airspace.

‘Alive to these challenges’

Standing NATO Maritime Group Two (SNMG2) flagship HMS Duncan, arrives to the harbor in Constanta, Romania, February 2, 2018.

NATO/CPO FRA C.Valverde

Russian forces are outstripped by NATO as a whole, and an all-out Russian attack on another country is considered unlikely.

But concern has grown that Russian A2/AD in areas like eastern Syria or the Baltic and Black seas could create layered defensive bubbles and limit NATO’s freedom of movement — especially in an engagement below the threshold of war.

In the decades since the Cold War, NATO members also shifted their attention away from a potential conflict with a peer or near-peer foe, focusing instead on smaller-scale operations like counterterrorism. (The US and others have started to reverse this shift.)

“There’s been decline in … investments rather in this type of warfare, as NATO attention has shifted to other priorities,” Lamrani said of A2/AD.

But, he noted, Russia has pursued the mismatch to compensate for a weakness.

A NATO flag flutters next to a US Air Force F-35A Lightning II fighter at Amari air base in Estonia, April 25, 2017.

Thomson Reuters

“Russia is stronger than NATO in air defenses and stronger than NATO in land-based anti-ship missile systems, as well as anti-missile systems in general,” Lamrani said. “That came out of Russia trying to mitigate its disadvantages in other areas. For instance, NATO naval forces are much stronger than Russia, and NATO air power as a whole is much stronger than Russia.”

Advanced stealth platforms, like the US-made F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, are seen as potential counters to A2/AD systems. And other assets, like the Navy’s EA-18G Growler electronic-attack aircraft, could help thwart them.

But it’s not clear those resources are available in the numbers needed to do so, nor is it likely such an engagement could be conducted without heavy losses.

Nevertheless, while Russia may find an advantage within the specific area of A2/AD, Lamrani said, “that doesn’t mean that NATO hasn’t been developing its own capabilities in other areas [and it] doesn’t mean that NATO hasn’t been thinking about this type of stuff.”

“Let’s just say the alliance is alive to these challenges, and it … will be prepared to use all the different things that would be required,” Hodges said in early November, without elaborating. “This is not something … the alliance has not looked at very closely.”

Moscow Laying Groundwork for Deeper Military Involvement in Libya

Paul Goble — Tue, 13 Nov 2018 03:31:36 +0000

Russian PMCs financier Yevgeny Prighozin (background) as Libyan General Khalifa Haftar’s delegation arrives to meet with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (Source: VOA)

Moscow is deepening its military involvement in Libya while denying to its own people and the world that it is doing so, thus repeating the pattern that the Kremlin has followed in Syria and the Central African Republic. Indeed, the Russian government appears to have crossed a Rubicon of sorts in the Maghreb last week (November 7). Specifically, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Yevgeny Prigozhin—a friend of President Vladimir Putin’s and the overseer of several Russian “private” military companies (PMC), including the Wagner Group—received Libyan military strongman Khalif Haftar in Moscow. Libya, with its oil and geographic location, is far more important to Moscow as a counter to the West than even Syria, where the Russians have been deeply involved in the local civil war.

During the Cold War, as Moscow military commentator Pavel Felgenhauer pointed out recently, “Libya was an important link in the USSR’s [Union of Soviet Socialist Republics] global conflict with America and its allies.” Today, given that Moscow views “the collective West” as “much worse” than it was in the Cold War days, Felgenhauer argues, the Kremlin again is looking to Libya as a base for countering and undermining Western influence (Novaya Gazeta, October 11).

Putin has taken an interest in Libya at least since 2011, viewing the overthrow of that country’s strongman, Muammar Qaddafi, not only as an attack on Russian interests but as a personal affront, the Moscow-based military analyst writes. And since that time, the Kremlin has actively supported Khalif Haftar, the self-proclaimed Libyan field marshal whose Libyan National Army controls an increasing portion of Libyan territory and especially its key oil fields. Haftar reportedly has asked Moscow for $2 billion in military assistance, at least a portion of which the Russian government has supplied, evading sanctions by sending it through Egyptian channels.

Moreover, Russian PMC employees and “possibly,” Felgenhauer says, regular army special forces have been seen in Libya in recent months, backing Haftar’s forces even though Moscow continues to maintain relations with the internationally recognized “government of national accord” in Tripoli. But Moscow has its own concerns: Haftar, as the military analyst says, is old and ill—he had a heart attack last spring. And “even with serious Russian military assistance,” the field marshal is unlikely to bring all of Libya under his control. Consequently, Moscow is making its own broader plans given that “Libya with its oil is much more important than Syria” for the West; and from Moscow’s perspective now, the West is the opponent that must be countered.

On November 7, Haftar made his latest visit to Moscow. Both the participants in that meeting and the way in which Kremlin-controlled media have sought to hide it strongly suggest that the Russian government is now preparing to intervene in Libya in a far more massive way. Irek Murtazin of Novaya Gazeta says there was nothing surprising in Haftar coming to Moscow or in the fact that Defense Minister Shoigu received him. That has happened many times before. But what was surprising is something that the Libyans leaked and that Moscow has been trying to cover up ever since: the presence of Prigozhin (Novaya Gazeta, November 9).

Immediately following the Moscow meeting, the Libyan Armed Forces released a video showing that Haftar and Shoigu were joined at the session by Prigozhin (YouTube, November 7). When some in Moscow noticed that the man who oversees several PMCs was present—a possible indication that Moscow intends to dispatch more of them to Libya and thus become more deeply involved in a war there, Murtazin writes—the official media went into full denial mode. Less than four hours after his original Novaya Gazeta story appeared, he recounts, the Russian government’s information agency RIA Novosti said that Prigrozhin was at the meeting only because he had organized and catered the dinner between the two officials (Novaya Gazeta, November 10; RIA Novosti, November 9).

But that was a patent lie, the journalist contends. The schedules of Shoigu and Haftar meant that, on this occasion, there was no time for any dinner—both had to leave Moscow before they could have had one. Therefore, the presence at the meeting of Prigrozhin, whose nickname is “the cook” because of his earlier role as a restauranteur, was not as a caterer but as something more sinister—almost certainly as the man who has been overseeing the influx of Russian military companies into Libya (Militarynews.ru, November 7). Moreover, as Murtazin notes, typically such food suppliers are not shown at the table with those they are feeding. Murtazin said his newspaper had queried the Russian defense ministry for an explanation but has not heard back yet (Novaya Gazeta, November 10).

This would appear to follow Putin’s modus operandi of denying what he is doing until he is in a position to take credit for it. But he almost certainly is increasingly in over his head, Felgenhauer suggests in his piece. “In the 1980s,” he recalls, “the USSR took part in foreign civil wars in Afghanistan, Nicaragua, Ethiopia, Angola” and others. “Today, we are ‘participating’ in Syria, in the Central African Republic, in Donbas and becoming more deeply involved in Libya” (Novaya Gazeta, October 11).

As in Soviet times, he continues, Moscow justifies these actions as necessary to counter the West, forgetting that Russia today has “many fewer resources than the USSR did” and that having gone down this road, it ultimately suffered not only defeat but disintegration. Nonetheless, and despite exposés like Murtazin’s, Moscow seems committed to sending more forces overtly and covertly to Libya, with all the risks that will entail.

Source: https://jamestown.org/program/moscow-laying-groundwork-for-deeper-military-involvement-in-libya/

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Russia and China Will Now Hold Military Exercises “On a Regular Basis”

Dave Majumdar — Wed, 12 Sep 2018 16:56:05 +0000

But does that mean an alliance is coming?

Russia and China are drawing closer together as the two great powers solidifytheir entente to challenge the United States and its liberal hegemony.

Not only do Russian president Vladimir Putin and Chinese president Xi Jinping seem to have established a good personal rapport, the Russian military and the People’s Liberation Army are set to conduct massive wargames such as Vostok-2018 exercises on a regular basis in the future. Russian defense minister Gen. Sergei Shoigu said as much when he hosted his Chinese counterpart Gen. Wei Fenghe during a visit to the Tsugol training ground as a part of Vostok-2018 . “We have agreed to hold such exercises on a regular basis,” Shoigu said in a statement.

Wei, for his part, also stressed the importance of Sino-Russian “cooperation on operational and strategic levels.” The Chinese military and political leadership in Beijing consider such cooperation with the Russians to be particularly important, according to the Russian Defense Ministry statement.

Indeed, both the Russian and Chinese leadership stressed cooperation between the two great powers during Xi’s visit to Vladivostok, Russia, on September 11. “Today was President Xi’s working visit to Russia,” Putin said. “It included talks during which we discussed the most urgent bilateral and international matters, and outlined further plans to promote the comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation between Russia and China.”

Xi, for his part, noted that he had met with his “close friend” Putin three times within the past four months, which demonstrates the “special character” of Sino-Russian relations. “The President and I agree that since the beginning of this year Russian-Chinese relations have been showing dynamic growth, have entered a new era of rapid development and are reaching a higher level,” Xi said. “The parties reaffirmed firm mutual support in the choice of the development path that agrees with the national features of both countries as well as our security and development interests.”

Xi further noted that Russia and China share a common worldview and share the same common interests. Xi also touted the importance of the Sino-Russian entente to global security—at least from the Chinese point of view. “As permanent members of the UN Security Council and leading countries in the developing markets, China and Russia bear enormous responsibility for the maintenance of peace and stability together with the promotion of the development and prosperity all over the world,” Xi said. “We have similar or identical positions on international matters, broad common interests and firm foundations for cooperation. China-Russia cooperation in maintaining equality, justice, peace and stability throughout the entire world is gaining ever more importance against a backdrop of growing instability and unpredictability on a global scale.”

Putin also urged the Russian “regions” to further expand their ties to their Chinese counterparts, which he views as key to the Sino-Russian entente. “We hope that your cooperation strengthens ties between our countries and helps Russia and China step up their relations,” Putin said. “It is our belief that our relations are essential and critical for our countries, as well as for the world in general. These are global, strategic relations that are gaining momentum. Your efforts will be decisive in ensuring this progress.”

While Russia and China have not always been on the best of terms, especially after Sino-Soviet in the 1960s, Moscow and Beijing have found common ground in recent years even if the relationship remains transactional in many ways. Even American experts on Russia are starting to accept the possibility of a genuine Beijing-Moscow entente directed against the United States. “I think a strategic partnership is slowly in the offing, but is encumbered by the two sides’ self-interest and transactional impulses,” as Center for Naval Analyses analyst Michael Kofman told The National Interest earlier this year. “As such, the catalyst will be a third actor, namely the United States, and the extent to which those countries perceive a threat from Washington in common.”

Dave Majumdar is the defense editor for The National Interest. You can follow him on Twitter: @davemajumdar.

Source: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-and-china-will-now-hold-military-exercises-regular-basis-31157

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