Meanwhile, the opposition figure and anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny—who had urged people to turn up at the protests and had been jailed for 30 days in the run-up to them as a result—mysteriously developed an “allergic” reaction while in police custody. He has since been treated at a hospital and returned to his jail cell.

Why It Matters:

Protests are not new to Moscow. But the intensity with which these protests were met by Moscow police caught many political observers off guard. Why? A couple of reasons. The first is that the stakes were low, as Moscow City Council elections have little impact on national, let alone international, politics. And yet the police responded as if these protests directly threatened the Russian state—this was the most arrests at a Russian protest in more than a decade. Secondly, the Kremlin had seemed more responsive in recent months to public outcry—see the decisions to release an investigative journalist who was arrested on suspicious charges, or to pause plans to build a church on park grounds in Yekaterinburg. The Kremlin under Putin is not known for backing down, so the recent moves seemed to be an acknowledgment that a struggling economy, falling salaries, an unpopular pension reform plan, higher taxes, continued corruption and declining living standards hit Russians hard; some have gone so far as to hope a degree of political liberalization was forthcoming. The response to the protests this weekend—as well as that mysterious “allergy” that opposition-leader Navalny developed while in custody—put an end to any such optimism.

What Happens Next:

The intensity with which the protesters were put down is a troubling sign that rather than allowing some space for liberalizations, the Kremlin has decided to go full-bore on repression, signaling its approach ahead of the 2021 national elections. In the more immediate term, Moscow is looking at a City Council packed with Kremlin loyalists—they’re in too deep to do anything else at this point.

More interesting is what happens between now and those Duma elections in 2021, especially as a Russian economy propped up by energy exports faces serious headwinds. Putin and his United Russia party will win those elections—it’s possible that the Kremlin will introduce electoral changes to make sure its preferred candidates win. But it’s getting harder for them to use the same tools to stay in power that they used to. Moscow understands the daily lives of citizens are becoming harder, which makes increased social spending to satisfy the public more likely, but that just causes bigger economic problems down the line.

The Key Statistic That Explains It:

Putin’s party, United Russia, is polling at 33 percent—still ahead of its political rivals, but far below the 54%, it won in 2016 elections. Why is that so important? Because…

The One Major Misconception About It:

That the fall of Putin’s popularity is driving the harsh crackdown. Putin’s popularity, while having tumbled some from its summer 2015 high of 89 percent, is still relatively strong at 68 percent, according to the independent Levada Center. More concerning to the Kremlin are those plummeting United Russia numbers. Given the party’s current standing, some party members opted to run as independents in City Council elections. The party’s lackluster polling is a particular problem for the Kremlin as Putin needs a successful United Russia to control both the parliament and the regional governments.

The One Thing to Say About It at a Dinner Party:

In a world without a properly functioning geopolitical order, rogue states and non-state actors have the fewest constraints on their domestic behavior; Putin has been taking advantage of that for years. But he also loved being able to free outspoken critics like Mikhail Khodorkovsky and letting Navalny walk the streets; it was a sign of his power, the generosity, and goodness of spirit of the all-powerful Putin. But when his popularity starts sinking, the economy starts stalling, and demonstrations start appearing, even Putin starts to feel the heat. And while still powerful, it turns out Putin has a thinner skin than he typically presents to the world. If it’s proven that Navalny was poisoned—which, to be fair, is pretty much impossible to prove—it means there’s more instability at home that people had presumed.

The One Thing to Avoid Saying About It:

The only thing worse than being in a democracy with just one party? Being in a one-party democracy when that one party starts collapsing.

Contact us at editors@time.com.

Source: https://time.com/5639451/what-the-protests-in-russia-mean-for-president-putin/

The post What the Protests in Russia Mean for President Putin first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has insisted Moscow is not trying to split the European Union.

He was speaking hours before arriving in Austria, on his first trip to Western Europe in almost a year.

He told Austria’s ORF television he wanted a “united and prosperous” EU, calling it Russia’s most important commercial and economic partner.

In Vienna, he said EU economic sanctions against Russia were hurting both sides.

Speaking after talks with Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen, Mr Putin said Russia had overcome all difficulties caused by the sanctions.

Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s southern Crimea peninsula in 2014 triggered the sanctions, which were later ratcheted up as Russia helped separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Russia has hit back with counter-sanctions on food and raw materials.

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More than 10,000 people have been killed since the conflict began in eastern Ukraine.

Another major concern among many European liberals is close links between the pro-Putin United Russia party with far-right parties in the EU.

The two populist parties now ruling Italy favour closer ties with Moscow and are both Eurosceptic.

In the ORF interview Mr Putin played down the links between United Russia and Austria’s far-right Freedom Party, the FPÖ. The parties have a co-operation agreement, but the FPÖ denies claims it has received money from Moscow.

Splits on sanctions

The FPÖ has some key posts in Austria’s coalition government – it is in charge of the interior ministry and defence – and says it wants to get the EU sanctions on Russia lifted. However, the coalition has agreed to back EU policy on sanctions.

Italy’s new government openly called for a review of EU sanctions on Tuesday, starting with those that “threaten civil society in Russia”. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte told parliament in Rome that Italy was in favour of opening up towards Russia, which represented a key partner for Italian business.

“The more problems at the heart of the EU, the more risks and problems there are for us,” Mr Putin told ORF.

“We need to build co-operation with the EU. We don’t have a goal of dividing anything or anyone in the EU.”

Russian soldiers in unmarked camouflage took control of Crimea in March 2014

What some call a “new cold war” was also fuelled by Russia’s role in the Syrian civil war and the poisoning of a former Russian double agent, Sergei Skripal, and his daughter, in southern England. The UK blamed the Kremlin for that attack; Russia furiously denied any role in it.

Pro-Putin activists have been accused of spreading “fake news” on social media to undermine the tough Western stance on Russia and help empower nationalists in the EU.

Austria and many other EU states depend on Russia for much – and in some cases all – of their natural gas.

Mr Putin is now meeting Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, as well as business leaders.

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44364429

The post Putin says Russia not aiming to divide EU first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.