US Bureau of Labor Statistics - Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association

US hiring stumbles in November as economy adds just 210,000 new jobs

Megan Henney FOXBusiness — Sun, 05 Dec 2021 22:42:21 +0000

Economists expected payrolls to increase by 550,000 in November.

U.S. job growth significantly undershot expectations in November, suggesting that difficulty in attracting new workers is weighing on the labor market’s recovery from the pandemic, even as COVID-19 cases dissipated nationwide.

The Labor Department said in its monthly payroll report released Friday that payrolls in November rose by just 210,000, well below the 550,000 jobs forecast by Refinitiv economists. It marked the worst month for job creation so far this year. The unemployment rate (which is calculated based on a separate survey) dropped more than expected to 4.2% from 4.6% — the lowest level since the pandemic began.

The labor market had been gaining momentum after a delta-induced slowdown over the summer, but the latest figure represents a significant drop from October’s upwardly revised number of 546,000 and September’s upwardly revised 379,000. There are still about 3.9 million fewer jobs than there were last February, before the crisis began.

“Today’s employment report is doubly disappointing, because the reference week occurred just as it looked like Covid was on the retreat,” said Justin Wolfers, a University of Michigan economist. “This was a moment for people to return to malls and to return to work. The COVID-related news has only gotten worse since then.”

The report wasn’t all bad news, however: The labor force participation rate rose to 61.8%, wages rose 4.8% from a year ago and the survey of households offered a brighter outlook, pointing to an employment gain of 1.13 million for the month. (The jobs report consists of two surveys – one based on employers and the other on households).

RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas described the report as a “tale of two surveys.”

“Rarely has the estimate produced by the good folks at the Bureau of Labor Statistics resulted in such divergent results as that illustrated by the twin establishment and household surveys that are the foundation of the monthly tally,” Brusuelas said.

The job growth stumble comes before the emergence of the newly identified omicron variant of COVID-19, which could jeopardize the global economy’s recovery. There is still a lack of clarity over how dangerous the new variant is, including whether it is more transmissible or capable of causing more severe illness. Early evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection.

Public health officials have urged caution against panic.

But the economic impacts of the new strain – which has been found in at least 38 countries including the U.S. – have already been felt, with the U.S. and at least 10 European nations suspending air travel from southern Africa. The 27-nation European Union also recommended an “emergency brake” on travel from southern Africa, citing the “very concerning” new variant.

Surveys for the November jobs report were conducted about three weeks ago, before the new variant was detected.

Leisure and hospitality, one of the hardest-hit sectors that has become a bellwether of sorts for the economy’s recovery, saw a gain of just 23,000 new jobs last month. By comparison, it added 170,000 new jobs in October. The sector, which includes bars, restaurants and hotels, has recovered about 7 million of the jobs it lost during the pandemic, but remains about 1.3 million below its February 2020 level.

A mixed bag of industries accounted for growth last month. Substantial gains took place in professional and business services (90,000), transportation and warehousing (50,000), and construction (31,000). But retail employment fell by 20,000 last month on a seasonally adjusted basis, despite the upcoming holiday season.

Markets remained relatively calm, despite the disappointing report.

Federal Reserve policymakers have been closely watching the labor market for signs that employment is reaching pre-crisis levels after the pandemic triggered one of the steepest – but shortest – recessions in nearly a century.

Although the jobs figure came in well below economists’ expectations, the U.S. central bank may plow ahead with tentative plans to begin more aggressively unwinding the economic support put in place in March 2020 in order to curtail surging inflation.

“If you think this report will push back the accelerated taper mentioned by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell this week, you would be mistaken,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group.

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The central bank has been purchasing $120 billion in bonds each month throughout most of the pandemic in order to keep credit cheap and stabilize the financial markets. In November, Fed officials announced plans to scale back the program by $15 billion a month, a timeline that would end the program by late June.

Chairman Jerome Powell suggested this week that Fed officials may accelerate their plan to reduce their monthly purchases of bonds and mortgage-backed securities later this month.

“At this point, the economy is very strong, and inflationary pressures are high,” Powell said on Tuesday. “It is therefore appropriate in my view to consider wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases, which we actually announced at our November meeting, perhaps a few months sooner.”

Source: https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/november-jobs-report-coronavirus-pandemic?test=38861ea43380e1402f1c90f21546ad4b

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This is the insurance bill for damage and looting during protests over George Floyd’s death — and that’s just in Minnesota

Andrew Keshner — Mon, 08 Jun 2020 01:54:09 +0000

‘It’s going to take a bit of time for the insurance industry to understand the full implication of this’

A Minneapolis liquor store going up in flames on May 28, three days after George Floyd’s death in police custody. – KEREM YUCEL/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

Peter Killen was getting a bad feeling watching the local news on Friday night.

On his TV at home, he saw a familiar gas station. A fire was visible in the distance. It seemed to be near the warehouse where Killen, the owner of four bars in Minneapolis and the surrounding area, leased space for spare equipment.

Killen stored fryers there, wine coolers, patio bar stools, catering equipment, and sentimental pictures too. The value of the items stored there was around $300,000 to $350,000. And by later that night, it was all gone.

Killen at the site of a burnt-down warehouse where approximately $350,000 in his equipment went up in smoke. –COURTESY PETER KILLEN

“There was nothing salvageable,” Killen, 49, told MarketWatch, later adding, “It’s just a pile of rubble and molten metal.” The patio furniture could have been useful for a patio-only reopening at his bars that was supposed to happen June 1 and is now a long way off.

“It’s never a good time, but it couldn’t have been any worse,” he said of the warehouse’s destruction.

From Friday to Wednesday, Killen says, he went from anger to acceptance. Now he’s getting ready for the next phase, the insurance claims process, and he’s far from alone.

The property destruction and looting during some of the protests over George Floyd’s May 25 death in police custody will cost insurers at least $25 million dollars — and that’s in Minnesota alone.

That estimate is according to Property Claim Services, an insurance industry company that monitors “catastrophes.” The word has special meaning for insurers, applying to large-scale man-made or natural disasters that will result in claims reaching at least $25 million.

On Saturday, the company designated the protests a “riot and civil disorder event” in the Minneapolis area. The label means the company expects insured losses to exceed $25 million.

By Tuesday, Property Claim Services updated its bulletin to say the protests had resulted in a “riot and civil disorder event” in multiple states.

It’s the first time the company determined for insurance purposes that a “riot and civil disorder event” was unfolding in multiple states, according to the company’s head, Tom Johansmeyer.

Property Claims Services, a division within Verisk Analytics, has catastrophe data going back to 1950, he noted.

Many of the demonstrations across the country have been largely peaceful, and Tuesday night demonstrations were some of the calmest yet. Still, there have been approximately 9,000 arrests nationwide and looting in Minneapolis and other major cities, including New York City, Los Angeles and Philadelphia.

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The $25 million price tag isn’t a projection on the actual insurance costs, Johansmeyer emphasized.

It’s essentially a heads up to carriers, telling them to get ready for an influx of claims and payouts. It will take around three weeks for the company to make an estimate on the insurance bill, he said.

Property Claims Services made its determinations about the “civil disorder event” by talking to insurance companies. “We take our cues from the insurers likely to be affected,” Johansmeyer said. “As of Friday, it was pretty thin. By Saturday, it was a different story.”

Homeowner and auto insurance policies can both cover damage from civil unrest, Johansmeyer noted. So can the business owner’s policies (BOPs) for small businesses and the layers of insurance that large companies use to protect themselves, he said.

A small business can expect to pay thousands a year in premiums for BOPs, according to Ron Wills, president and founder of the National Association of Business Owners & Entrepreneurs, a Washington D.C.-area business association. A mid-sized company can pay “tens of thousands” and premiums can jump to “hundreds of thousands” for large regional firms, he said.

Coverage for business interruption is critical at a time like this, said Wills, but not all policies include it.

It’s too soon to tell which types of policies will be paying for the damages, Johansmeyer said. “There could be some homeowner’s [insurance] in there, there could be some auto. Commercial is what we expect to be a little more significant.”

“It’s going to take a bit of time for the insurance industry to understand the full implication of this,” he said.

The largest riot-related insurance losses came after the 1992 Los Angeles riots, according to the Insurance Information Institute, an industry-funded consumer education association. Riots flared after four police officers were acquitted in the beating of Rodney King, a black man.

Insurers paid policyholders $775 million at that time for damages, according to the Insurance Information Institute. Adjusting for inflation, that’s $1.4 billion now, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ inflation calculator.

Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was the nation’s most expensive insurance bill for a catastrophe. In the home, auto, and commercial lines alone, insurers paid $41 billion to policyholders. That’s $55.1 billion adjusting for inflation now.

Back in Minnesota, the $25 million figure seems low to Killen.

His insurance agent told Killen to take precautions like boarding up the damaged space. “There’s nothing to board up. I couldn’t board it up if I even wanted to,” he said.

It might be some time before the insurance company could make it to the scene, the agent told Killen.

Killen’s four bars, including Kieran’s Irish Pub, have all gone unscathed so far.

He’s been closed since March 17 due to the state’s efforts to slow the coronavirus’ spread. That day happened to be St. Patrick’s Day — which could have been a good day for business, he noted.

Killen is trying to take the good with the bad. He’s supportive of the protests and hopes they will be a “milestone for change.”

“Hey the glass is half full,” said Killen. “We’re healthy. There’s only one way to go. That’s up.”

Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-insurance-bill-for-damage-and-looting-during-protests-over-george-floyds-death-will-be-at-least-25-million-and-thats-just-in-minnesota-2020-06-04

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The Trump administration reportedly sent ‘no-match letters’ to over 570,000 employers telling them they might have unauthorized workers

Alexandra Ma — Fri, 17 May 2019 14:28:46 +0000

President Donald Trump boarding Air Force One on Thursday for a trip to New York to attend a fundraiser. Associated Press

President Donald Trump’s administration has written to more than 570,000 employers since March telling them some of their workers’ names and Social Security numbers don’t match, The New York Times reports.
Reasons for discrepancies that prompt “no-match letters” can be innocuous, like marital name changes and typos on forms, but they can also indicate immigration status.
The Social Security Administration discontinued its practice of writing the letters in 2012 but restarted it this March under a White House order.
Critics say the revival of the letters is part of the Trump administration’s harder line on immigration and unauthorized workers.
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President Donald Trump’s administration has revived the dormant immigration practice of writing to employers to warn them if any of their workers’ names and Social Security numbers don’t match, The New York Times reports.

The Social Security Administration has mailed “no-match letters” to more than 570,000 employers since March this year, The Times said.

These letters notify employers who submitted W-2 tax forms — which contain employees’ names and Social Security numbers — if those combinations don’t match. Reasons for these discrepancies can be innocuous, like marital name changes and typos on forms, but they can also indicate immigration status.

Adolfo Rodriguez Lopez, 41, has never returned to Mexico to visit his wife and four sons in Ensenada, Mexico, during the 12 years he has lived in the United States.

Gus Ruelas/Reuters

No-match letters do not require employers to take action against an employee but instruct them to correct the mismatch within 60 days, according to Bloomberg Law.

Here’s an example of a no-match letter as shown on the SSA’s website.

The SSA started sending these letters in 1993, stopped doing so in 2012, and then restarted the practice this March.

Though the no-match letters do not threaten legal action, employers are left in limbo as they have to weigh the loss of workers with the chances of being punished by federal immigration authorities in the future.

An American flag next to signage for a United States Social Security Administration office in Burbank, California.Reuters/Fred Prouser

It is not clear whether the SSA plans to share the data mismatches with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Business Insider has contacted the SSA for comment.

The US workforce contains 162 million people, of which 156 million are employed, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last month. There were about 7.8 million unauthorized workers in the US civilian workforce in 2016, according to Pew Research.

Though the exact reason for the revival of the no-match letters is not clear, experts say it appears to be part of Trump’s increasingly hardline approach toward immigration.

Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García at a rally in Chicago in January 2015. Jim Young/Reuters

Forty-six Democratic lawmakers wrote a letter to the SSA earlier this month calling on it to stop writing the letters.

Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García, the Democratic representative from Illinois who organized the letter, told The Hill earlier this month: “Other than to instill fear and to add to the series of attacks that have come down against the immigrant community — whether it’s the Census question, whether it’s the public charge initiative against lawful permanent residents — this is one more tool in their arsenal, I think, to drive the community into the shadows of society, to create more anti-immigrant sentiment in the country, and just to create fear and instability in communities with large immigrant populations.”

“What’s the purpose?” he added. “What’s the aim here? We think it is simply to create distrust, to advance the anti-immigrant rhetoric that’s out there.”

The SSA has said it is sending the letters because it is “committed to maintaining the accuracy of earnings records used to determine benefit amounts to ensure people get the benefits they have earned,” according to Bloomberg Law.

Trump at the White House. Reuters

The Trump administration on Thursday announced a plan to overhaul a large portion of the country’s immigration laws to prioritize skilled workers over family relationships.

The plan would essentially shift the US immigration system from one based on family ties to a “merit and skill” one that would prioritize highly educated and skilled workers who could demonstrate a “patriotic assimilation” into American life.

Lawmakers and legal experts have already derided the bill as “dead on arrival,” but administration officials have hinted that it was to show 2020 voters what the Republican Party supports, INSIDER’s Michelle Mark reported.

Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-no-match-letters-employers-undocumented-workers-reports-2019-5

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