In his first one-on-one interview since assuming his post in Washington, D.C., last July, Qin Gang accused Taiwan of “walking down the road toward independence,” and added, “If the Taiwanese authorities, emboldened by the United States, keep going down the road for independence, it most likely will involve China and the United States, the two big countries, in a military conflict.”

It was an unusually direct statement about the U.S. and Taiwan. Observers say China usually speaks in more general terms, such as saying that the U.S. is “playing with fire.”

Though American eyes may be focused thousands of miles away toward a threatened war in Ukraine, U.S. officials and analysts have voiced increasing concern about Taiwan’s ability to defend itself. This week, 39 Chinese military aircraft flew near Taiwan, the latest of several such demonstrations. It’s widely believed that the U.S. would defend Taiwan in the event of war, though no formal treaty requires it to do so.

Ambassador Qin spoke of Taiwan at his official residence Thursday, where he welcomed NPR’s team to discuss U.S. relations with China and the upcoming Winter Olympics in Beijing. He is a veteran diplomat who previously served as the chief of foreign affairs protocol for China’s President Xi Jinping.

Qin arrived in Washington last year at a time of bipartisan disappointment with China. It’s widely conceded in Washington that a decades-long policy of engagement with China produced great wealth for many companies but failed to spark democratic reform. Qin told us that any ideas of “changing China” were always “an illusion.”

He spoke of the upcoming Olympics with pride: “Beijing is ready.” These are the second Olympic Games hosted by Beijing, with athletes and others largely living inside a secure “bubble” to protect against coronavirus infection.

A “diplomatic boycott” of the Games by U.S. officials has added tension, though only a few U.S. allies have followed suit, and U.S. athletes will compete. The U.S. announced the boycott in protest of what it terms the “ongoing genocide” of Uyghurs, a mostly Muslim minority in western China. Qin rejected such accusations as “fabrications, lies and disinformation.”

He nonetheless asserted that some Uyghurs were terrorists.

“The destination for them is prisons,” he said, while asserting that others had inappropriate thoughts that they were being taught to change in “vocational schools.”

NPR correspondents have documented widespread imprisonment of Uyghurs, as well as efforts to turn them away from their language and culture. NPR has also reported a security architecture in the western province of Xinjiang that is even more intense than in other regions of China, with cameras and police stations that are nearly ubiquitous.

The U.S. has become more vocal in defense of Uyghurs as overall relations have soured. If either side hoped for a reset in relations after the departure of President Donald Trump, it hasn’t quite happened. President Biden has yet to remove Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods, and U.S. diplomats have traded contentious statements with their Chinese counterparts.

Of the many irritants in the relationship, the ambassador described Taiwan as “the biggest tinderbox.” The region has governed itself separately for generations. Unlike the rest of China, Taiwan was not conquered by Communist forces in the civil war that led to the declaration of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. The former government took refuge there and, with U.S. support, eventually developed a democratic system.

Beijing has long sought unification with Taiwan and has not renounced the use of force to meet that goal. The U.S. has said it expects the matter to be settled peacefully.

“People on both sides of the Taiwan Straits are Chinese,” Qin said, arguing that his government has no desire for war. However, in a sharp rebuff of any effort by Taiwan’s government to formally declare independence, he said, “China will not commit to giving up the un-peaceful means for reunification because this is a deterrent.”

Even so, Qin said China’s “most important relationship” is with the United States, and he gave a straightforward description of his mission in Washington: “Don’t mess it up.”

Interview highlights

On whether Americans should be concerned about a Chinese attack on Taiwan:
“The Taiwan issue is the biggest tinderbox between China and the United States. If, you know the Taiwanese authorities, emboldened by the United States, you know, keep going down the road for independence, it most likely will involve China and the United States, the two big countries, in the military conflict.”

On the prospect of military conflict:
“People on both sides of Taiwan Straits are Chinese, so we are compatriots. So the last thing we should do is to fight with compatriots. And we will do our utmost in the greatest sincerity to achieve a peaceful reunification. … But … that Taiwanese authority is working down the road towards independence, emboldened by the United States. So China will not commit to giving up the un-peaceful means for reunification because this is a deterrence.”

On policies and human rights abuses against mostly Muslim Uyghur populations in western China that prompted the U.S. diplomatic boycott of the Olympics in Beijing:
“The actual condition is that Uyghur people as other ethnic groups of people, they enjoy happy life. They enjoy the rights and the freedom guaranteed by the constitution of China. They are a member of the big family of Chinese nation. This co-called genocide or forced labor — these are big lies of the century. There’s no genocide at all.”

On whether Chinese President Xi Jinping believes America’s global status is in decline:
“Nobody in China bet(s) against the United States. Everybody in China, including the Chinese leadership, believe(s) that the United States is one of the most important countries. And the relationship between China and United States is the most important relationship. We must work well at ‘don’t mess it up.’ ”

Correction
Jan. 29, 2022
In this interview, we incorrectly say the U.S. agrees that Taiwan is part of China. In fact, U.S. policy is to simply acknowledge the Chinese government’s assertion that it has sovereignty over Taiwan.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/01/28/1076246311/chinas-ambassador-to-the-u-s-warns-of-military-conflict-over-taiwan

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2. World economy shows signs of recovery
2021 global economic growth is estimated to be 5-6%, compared with a contraction of 4.4% in 2020. Rapid vaccination and huge economic stimulus packages in “economic locomotives” like the US, Europe and China, provided the driving force for the global recovery. But after sustaining damages of 3.3 trillion USD, tens of millions of jobs lost, and global supply chains disrupted, what the world economy will look like in 2022 still depends heavily on COVID-19 pandemic developments.

3. COP26 (United Nations Conference on Climate Change)
On November 13, 197 countries attending the United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26) ratified the Glasgow Climate Pact. 100 countries also pledged to end deforestation and cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030. The world’s two largest emitters, the US and China, issued a joint statement, pledging to cooperate in building a long-term strategy to combat climate change. The results of the Conference offered hope that the world can still prevent the worst effects of climate change.

4. US withdraws troops from Afghanistan after 20 years of war, Taliban returns to power
On August 30, the last US troops left Afghanistan, ending the longest war in US history. During 20 years of war, 3,500 American and allied troops and tens of thousands of Afghan soldiers and civilians were killed in Afghanistan. On August 15, the Taliban took control of the capital Kabul after having taken control of most of the rest of Afghanistan, making the country’s future uncertain and worrisome. The risk of Afghanistan exporting terrorism, conflict, and violence could jeopardize the security of the entire world.

5. US-China strategic competition grows fiercer, but not yet out of control
Since taking office as the 46th President of the United States on January 20, Joe Biden has worked hard to build a new coalition to deal with China, as the US-China strategic competition has become an all-out confrontation. The US has demanded that China make concessions on Chinese Taipei, the East Sea, the East China Sea, democracy, human rights, and other issues. Rather than making any concessions, China has redoubled its effort to overtake the US as the world’s strongest economy. Although they reached no compromise, both the US and China have signaled a readiness for dialogue to keep their confrontations from spiraling out of control.

6. AUKUS profoundly changes Indo-Pacific landscape
The Tripartite Security Agreement reached by Australia, the UK and the US (AUKUS) on September 15 marked a new step in the US’s pivot to the Indo-Pacific, and created a major change in the region’s strategic balance. The AUKUS mechanism tightened the relationship between the US, UK and Australia, while worsening the US-China relations, and causing rifts between the US and its European allies. With the EU and the US later announcing their separate Indo-Pacific strategies, the birth of AUKUS Alliance marks a gathering of forces and the Indo-Pacific’s growing geopolitical importance.

7. End of Merkel’s rule – a void and future expectations for Germany and Europe
Angela Merkel’s rule came to an end when Olaf Schozl was confirmed as Chancellor by the German Bundestag on December 8. During her 16 years in office, Chancellor Merkel led Germany and the EU through major crises, including the 2008 financial crisis, the 2015 migration crisis, the 2010 public debt crisis, and Brexit, made Germany a “European locomotive” and accelerated the unification of Europe. Merkel’s departure from politics raises concerns about a power vacuum in Germany and the EU, but also rekindles hopes for winds of change in the near future.

8. Political upheaval in Myanmar, Sudan, Guinea
On February 1, the National Alliance for Democracy underpinning the civilian government of Myanmar, was stripped of its power and power was transferred to the military. In Africa, Sudan was plunged into a political crisis after the military dissolved the Sudanese power-sharing government and declared a state of emergency on October 25. In 2021, Africa also witnessed coups in Mali and Guinea. These worrisome political developments reflected a trend of political and social instability in many countries.

9. Russian-Western relations on the brink of breakdown
Russia-Ukraine relations suddenly worsened with the two sides increasing military buildups near the border between Russia and Ukraine. Between problems in the Baltic Sea and Black Sea area and a migration crisis on the Poland-Belarus border, the risk of conflict between the West and Russia reached its highest level since the Cold War. On December 17, Russia published the draft of the eight-point treaty with the West aimed at easing tensions in Europe and defusing the Ukraine crisis. If a new agreement is not reached soon, Russia-Western relations could reach a dangerous tipping point.

10. First commercial space flight ushers in new era of space travel
On the evening of September 15, the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) successfully launched the world’s first private spacecraft into Earth orbit. The event marked the ambitious start of a new space tourism industry. Following SpaceX, companies Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin also launched private flights carrying passengers into space.

Source: https://vovworld.vn/en-US/current-affairs/top-10-world-events-of-2021-1061358.vov

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“There is an arms race, not necessarily for increased numbers, but for increased quality,” Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall told Reuters during an interview in his Pentagon offices. “It’s an arms race that has been going on for quite some time. The Chinese have been at it very aggressively.”

In October, the top U.S. military officer, General Mark Milley, confirmed a Chinese hypersonic weapons test that military experts say appears to show Beijing’s pursuit of an Earth-orbiting system designed to evade American missile defenses.

This year the Pentagon has held several hypersonic weapons tests with mixed success. In October, the Navy successfully tested a booster rocket motor that would be used to power a launch vehicle carrying a hypersonic weapon aloft.

Hypersonic weapons travel in the upper atmosphere at speeds of more than five times the speed of sound, or about 6,200 kilometers (3,853 miles) per hour.

Kendall noted that while the U.S. military has focused funds on Iraq and Afghanistan, it has taken its eye off the ball in terms of hypersonic weapons. “This isn’t saying we’ve done nothing, but we haven’t done enough,” he said.

As the Pentagon enters the 2023 annual budget cycle, Kendall hopes to raise funds with the retirement of older and expensive-to-maintain systems in favor of new systems, including hypersonic development programs.

“I love the A-10. The C-130 is a great aircraft that’s been very capable and very effective for a lot of missions. The MQ-9s have been very effective for counterterrorism and so on. They’re still useful, but none of these things scare China,” Kendall said, referring to a more than 40-year-old combat aircraft, a plane for carrying cargo, and widely used drones, respectively.

Defense contractors hope to capitalize on the shift to hypersonic weapons not only by building them, but also by developing new detection and defeat mechanisms.

Arms makers Lockheed Martin Corp, Northrop Grumman Corp and Raytheon Technologies Corp have all touted their hypersonic weapons programs to investors as world focus shifted to the new arms race for an emerging class of weapon.

Still, the Pentagon wants defense contractors to cut the ultimate cost of hypersonic weapons, the head of research and development has said, as the next generation of super-fast missiles being developed currently costs tens of millions per unit.

Source: https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/arms/2021/11/30/id/1046785/

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Aircraft of the People’s Liberation Army continued to enter Taiwan’s declared air defense identification throughout the weekend, even as the self-ruling island celebrated “National Day”—an occasion commemorating the end of the Qing Dynasty and the establishment of the Republic of China, which Taiwan officially calls itself.

But as the rival People’s Republic of China made its presence known, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen delivered a military message as well.

“As commander-in-chief,” Tsai said, “I always have the future of our military and our military of the future in my heart.”

The Taiwanese leader vowed to buy and build more powerful military equipment during Saturday’s festivities.

“We will continue to modernize defensive combat capabilities and accelerate the upgrading of our asymmetrical capabilities to deal with military expansion and provocation from the other side of the Taiwan Strait,” Tsai said. “As we procure military hardware, we still remain dedicated to promoting our national self-defense capabilities.”

She also appealed for cross-strait stability and dialogue, but her words appeared lost on Beijing, where President Xi Jinping has vowed to assert control over Taiwan with military action if a peaceful path did not pan out.

Taiwan’s military reported on Sunday that Chinese Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft continued a daily streak of sorties along the disputed strait that represents the de facto divide between the mainland People’s Republic of China, led by the Chinese Communist Party, and Taiwan, a democracy that officially calls itself the Republic of China.

With Chinese media outlets such as the Communist Party-run Global Times hyping up the chances of all-out war, Andrew Yang, spokesperson of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in New York, affirmed that Taiwan would double down on both indigenous and acquired military strength to deter an ever-looming Chinese incursion.

“Taiwan will continue to increase investments in its defense commensurate with the security challenges it faces,” Yang told Newsweek. “Taiwan will also seek security cooperation with the United States to build its defense systems that are cost-effective but lethal enough to make any invasions painful.”

Two U.S.-made F-16V fighter aircraft release flares after dropping bombs during the annual Han Kuang military drills in Taichung on July 16. The five-day “Han Kuang” (Han Glory) military drills starting on July 14 aimed to test how the armed forces would repel an invasion from China, which has vowed to bring Taiwan back into the fold—by force if necessary. SAM YEH/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

The case of Taiwan’s sovereignty is among the most serious challenges to U.S.-China relations, which have approached historic lows during the past year.

For more than four decades, the U.S. has adhered to the “One China” policy that acknowledges Beijing’s claims to Taiwan. But it has also maintained informal diplomatic and defense ties with Taipei, whose international links have dwindled to 14 nations since losing a 1949 civil war. China has refused relations with any country recognizing Taiwan, prompting much of the international community to shift relations as China opened up economically to the West over the past half a century.

The Trump administration has expanded upon the unofficial U.S. relationship with Taiwan, which has become a bone of contention as the two powers increasingly compete economically and geopolitically.

Last month’s annual Pentagon report on Chinese military power noted that “China continues to view the Taiwan issue as the most important and sensitive issue between the United States and China.”

Chinese forces have staged large displays of military might in protest to recent visits by senior U.S. officials to the island. One such series of exercises last month was rejected as “aggressive and destabilizing” in remarks sent to Newsweek by Pentagon spokesperson John Supple.

As Chinese fury toward the U.S. Taiwan policy mounts, some observers have warned the likelihood of a conflict has grown.

“The situation is escalating, mostly because of power competition and maritime disputes,” the Beijing-based South China Sea Probing Initiative told Newsweek in a statement.

The think tank deemed “unlikely” a possible military conflict between China and nearby members of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that challenge some of Beijing’s territorial claims, but said “the risk of China-U.S. conflict is rising.”

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo downplayed this scenario in an interview Friday with radio host Hugh Hewitt. At the same time, he emphasized that the Trump administration would continue to work with Taiwan against China’s wishes.

“These are the obligations that the United States should undertake and is undertaking,” Pompeo said. “We recognize that this is a point of conflict with the Chinese Communist Party. We don’t want that. We want peace. But we are going to make sure that we live up to all of the obligations we have to Taiwan.”

Regional tensions remain high as the U.S. stepped up military activities near Taiwan and across the Asia-Pacific, including in the nearby East and South China Seas, where the Pentagon has challenged sweeping Chinese maritime claims.

A Chinese Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft of the People’s Liberation Army is seen in this image shared October 11 by the Taiwan National Defense Ministry. Taiwan’s armed forces said radio warnings were issued and missile systems put on alert as the aircraft entered the island’s declared air defense identification zone. MINISTRY OF NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE REPUBLIC OF CHINA

After the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS John McCain sailed near the Paracel Islands, which are controlled by China but also claimed by ASEAN member Vietnam, Chinese Southern Military Command spokesperson Senior Colonel Zhang Nandong called Friday on the U.S. to “immediately stop such kind of provocative actions, strictly manage and control its maritime and air military operations so as not to cause any eventuality.”

The U.S. has sought to court regional countries to pressure China as a part of a “free and open Indo-Pacific” plan. Also on board are fellow Quadrilateral Security Dialogue members Australia, India, and Japan, whose representatives met last week with Pompeo in Tokyo.

The top U.S. diplomat rallied the three countries against the Chinese Communist Party by asserting that it “is more critical now than ever that we collaborate to protect our people and partners from the CCP’s exploitation, corruption, and coercion.”

China’s embassy in Washington rejected Pompeo’s remarks in a reaction sent to Newsweek.

“China is committed to the path of peaceful development and firmly safeguards its sovereignty, security and development interests,” an embassy spokesperson said.

“At the same time, it is committed to resolving differences with other countries through dialogue and consultation,” the spokesperson added. “This is what we say and also what we do. We do not accept reckless smearing and groundless accusations against China.”

A map shows a selected series of China’s territorial disputes in the region as of January 1.U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Source: https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-wants-strong-us-defense-make-invasion-painful-china-conflict-fears-grow-1538404

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