Justice is fallen in the streets.  I guess you heard about the acquittal in what looked like a slam-dunk case.  It has political overtones, but it threatened to answer most of the questions that were obvious to those watching.  If it had gone the other way, it would have been fun to see how the mainstream handled it.  If the truth ever spills in to the mainstream we’re going to find out a litany of things that we already knew but the mainstream will never report.  Is that it?  All these years of investigations and the only case brought goes down in flames?  Oh there’s more, lots more.  We’re just wondering if any of it will ever see the light of day.  So far it looks like the goon squad may get away with what they did.  They used the power of government and some agencies in particular to carry out operations against their perceived enemies.  Will it ever get straightened out?  It’s looking doubtful.

We’ve been grappling with what to do with the next WATCH magazine cover.  No, I’m not going to give it away.  But it’s looking like the government can do whatever they want to beat down and impoverish the citizens, and nothing is their fault.  It’s Putin’s fault.  The gas prices?  Yep, Putin.  Food shortages?  They’ve been predicted, now it looks like all the stops will be pulled out to make that come true.  Oh, that’s the corporations.  Corporations that are determined to play government ball at any cost.

We’re drowning in crises.  Well, crises to us anyway.  The politicians are strutting around like they’re saving the planet.  Gas has gone over budget, way over.  Food is following suit, and we haven’t seen anything yet.  That will be Putin’s fault too, wait and see.  The only silver lining is that America-haters have to buy gas and groceries too.  They’re going to react when they figure out they’ve been slapped back a peg or two.  They’ll probably get some government handout to ease the pain.  Maybe their student debt will be canceled.  Yeah, the people who work can pick that up.  The government is spewing money as fast as they can print it, in spite of roaring inflation.  But act like they don’t have a clue.

You can’t have missed the monumental amount of military aid for Ukraine.  So what’s the goal?  There is no plan?  You mean…  Who can stand it?  Apparently they’re cleared to make life miserable for citizens, and they couldn’t be any happier.  Who’s they?  They’re at the microphones telling us how proud they are.  You can’t miss them.  You’d think Ukraine was attached to government somehow.  You’d be right.  The same lame-brains are trying to put us all back in masks, those that ever wore them.  The cancellation of the “mandate” for airlines is being appealed.  Never mind that Europe has canceled theirs.  Since when have the nations of Europe ever been a model for us?  We’re not who we thought we were, not since the pretender and his handlers started calling the shots.  Obama is so jealous?  No, Obama is taking the stairs two, maybe three at a time.  He had to pretend to be on our side.  The pretender doesn’t.

Not to alarm you, but a Russian TV show is talking about how easy it would be to take out the eastern seaboard of the United States.  Putin apparently is getting treated for some ailment, maybe cancer.  It probably wouldn’t pay to play chicken with him, having nothing to lose and all.  That would spell tribulation all right, and it’s the last thing we’re rooting for.  Pray that we get through this intact, and emerge as the nation we were intended to be.  Sounds like a long shot, but it is our hope.

Mark

Source: http://www.intercontinentalcog.org/fridayupdates.php

The post Weekly Update by Mark Armstrong – 3 June 2022 first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

“If Russia decides to invade, that would also have consequences here at home. But the American people understand that defending democracy and liberty is never without cost,” President Biden said in a speech Tuesday. “I will not pretend this will be painless.”

Russia says it is not preparing to invade, and it is not a certainty that Russian President Vladimir Putin will decide to do so. World leaders are continuing diplomatic talks this week in a high-stakes effort to avoid that outcome.

Still, the possibility of an invasion has raised the specter of consequences — sanctions, countersanctions, energy supply issues, a flood of refugees — that would be felt far beyond Ukraine’s borders.

Here’s what to know.

The U.S. has promised severe sanctions if Russia invades — and Russia could retaliate
“If Russia proceeds, we will rally the world and oppose its aggression. The United States and our allies and partners around the world are ready to impose powerful sanctions and export controls,” Biden said Tuesday.

Those sanctions could include restrictions on major Russian banks that would dramatically affect Russia’s ability to conduct international business. Severe U.S. sanctions could drive up prices for everyday Russians or cause Russia’s currency or markets to crash.

Because the U.S. does not rely much on trade with Russia, it is somewhat insulated from direct consequences. Europe is more directly affected. But certain sectors of the U.S. economy rely on highly specific Russian exports, primarily raw commodities.

“The premise of sanctions is to hurt the other guy more than you hurt your own interests. But that does not mean there will not be some collateral damage,” said Doug Rediker, a partner at International Capital Strategies.

Energy prices could soar
Russia is a major exporter of oil and natural gas, especially to Europe. As a result, officials have reportedly shied away from severe sanctions on Russian energy exports.

But there are other ways the energy market could be disrupted.

For one, Russia could choose to cut off or limit oil and gas exports to Europe as retaliation for sanctions. Nearly 40% of the natural gas used by the European Union comes from Russia — and no European country imports more than Germany, a key ally of the United States.

Even if Russia chooses not to limit exports, supplies could still be affected by a conflict in Ukraine because multiple pipelines run through the country, carrying gas from Russia to Europe. “They could simply be casualties of a military invasion,” Rediker said.

Either way, if Europe’s natural gas supply is pinched, that could cause energy prices — which have already been climbing — to rise even further. And even though the U.S. imports relatively little oil from Russia, oil prices are set by the global market, meaning local prices could rise anyway. On Tuesday, Biden promised to work with Congress to address “the impact of prices at the pump.”

Other industries, from food to cars, might also be hurt

Russia is a major exporter of rare-earth minerals and heavy metals — such as titanium used in airplanes. Russia supplies about a third of the world’s palladium, a rare metal used in catalytic converters, and its price has soared in recent weeks over fears of a conflict.

And a major conflict in Ukraine would disrupt Ukrainian industries too. Ukraine is a major source of neon, which is used in manufacturing semiconductors.

As a result, U.S. officials have warned various sectors to brace for supply chain disruptions, including the semiconductor and aerospace industries.

Fertilizer is produced in major quantities in both Ukraine and Russia. Disruptions to those exports would mostly affect agriculture in Europe, but food prices around the world could rise as a result.

The shock to international stability could hit global markets

Beyond sanctions and countersanctions, global financial markets would likely have a negative reaction to a European military invasion of a scale not seen since World War II.

Americans with exposure to the stock market — like those with 401(k)s and other retirement accounts — could feel an effect, though it would most likely be short term.

“Markets are fundamentally not prepared for a land war in Europe in the 21st century,” Rediker said. “It’s something people just have not contemplated.”

The U.S. stock market has already been unusually volatile in recent weeks, churning over inflation, possible moves by the Federal Reserve and the possible conflict in Ukraine.

Historically, the market has bounced back relatively quickly after geopolitical events. That’s what’s most likely today too, analysts say.

But if a major Russian invasion and subsequent conflict cause long-lasting disruption of energy markets and other exports, investors could rethink that conventional wisdom.

“You’re potentially at a point where not only are we looking at Russia potentially invading Ukraine and sanctions and countermeasures, but you are also looking at a rise of China that doesn’t necessarily agree with the American perspective on the world anyway,” Rediker said. “Are we looking at a point in which some of the major premises that people take for granted have to be reassessed?”

Russia might respond with disruptive cyberattacks on U.S. targets

Another way Russia could respond to U.S. sanctions is through cyberattacks and influence campaigns.

Various federal agencies, including the Treasury and the Department of Homeland Security, have warned of possible cyberattacks on targets like big banks and power grid operators. And just last week, U.S. cybersecurity officials held a tabletop exercise to ensure that federal agencies are prepared for possible Russian retaliation, The Washington Post reported.

“They have been warning everyone about Russia’s very specific tactics about the possibility of attacks on critical infrastructure,” Katerina Sedova, a researcher at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, told NPR.

Russian cyberattacks have targeted Ukraine relentlessly in recent years, including attacks on the capital city of Kyiv’s power grid in 2015 and 2016. But a major escalation could shift focus to U.S. targets.

Sedova pointed to the Russian state-backed attack on the IT software company SolarWinds and a ransomware attack that shut down the Colonial Pipeline for six days as examples of how major Russian cyberattacks could disrupt U.S. operations. (The Biden administration said it does “not believe the Russian government was involved” in the pipeline attack.)

Power grids, hospitals and local governments could all be targets, she said.

For now, Sedova said she is more worried about subtler attacks — like influence campaigns that aim to “sow discord between us and our allies in our resolve” to act jointly against Russia.

“Oftentimes, cyber-operations go hand in hand with influence,” she said. “They’re targeting a change of decision-making, a change in policy in that direction, a change in public opinion.”

A major invasion would likely spark a refugee crisis

A full Russian invasion could send 1 million to 5 million refugees fleeing Ukraine, U.S. officials and humanitarian agencies have warned.

“It will be a continent-wide humanitarian disaster with millions of refugees seeking protection in neighbouring European countries,” Agnès Callamard, secretary-general of Amnesty International, said last month in statement.

Poland, which shares a border with Ukraine and is already home to more than a million Ukrainians, would likely see the most refugees. Over the weekend, Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski said his country was preparing for an “influx of refugees” from Ukraine.

The U.S. military says that the thousands of soldiers deployed to Poland this month are prepared to assist with a large-scale evacuation.

“Assistance with evacuation flow is something they could do, and could do quite well. They are going to be working with Polish authorities on what that looks like and how they would handle that,” Defense Department spokesperson John Kirby said this week.

At the largest scale, a refugee crisis would not be contained to Europe — the U.S. would likely see refugees seeking asylum too.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/02/16/1081185004/russia-ukraine-invasion-us-impact

The post Biden says a Russian invasion of Ukraine would hurt Americans. Here’s how first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

2. World economy shows signs of recovery
2021 global economic growth is estimated to be 5-6%, compared with a contraction of 4.4% in 2020. Rapid vaccination and huge economic stimulus packages in “economic locomotives” like the US, Europe and China, provided the driving force for the global recovery. But after sustaining damages of 3.3 trillion USD, tens of millions of jobs lost, and global supply chains disrupted, what the world economy will look like in 2022 still depends heavily on COVID-19 pandemic developments.

3. COP26 (United Nations Conference on Climate Change)
On November 13, 197 countries attending the United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26) ratified the Glasgow Climate Pact. 100 countries also pledged to end deforestation and cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030. The world’s two largest emitters, the US and China, issued a joint statement, pledging to cooperate in building a long-term strategy to combat climate change. The results of the Conference offered hope that the world can still prevent the worst effects of climate change.

4. US withdraws troops from Afghanistan after 20 years of war, Taliban returns to power
On August 30, the last US troops left Afghanistan, ending the longest war in US history. During 20 years of war, 3,500 American and allied troops and tens of thousands of Afghan soldiers and civilians were killed in Afghanistan. On August 15, the Taliban took control of the capital Kabul after having taken control of most of the rest of Afghanistan, making the country’s future uncertain and worrisome. The risk of Afghanistan exporting terrorism, conflict, and violence could jeopardize the security of the entire world.

5. US-China strategic competition grows fiercer, but not yet out of control
Since taking office as the 46th President of the United States on January 20, Joe Biden has worked hard to build a new coalition to deal with China, as the US-China strategic competition has become an all-out confrontation. The US has demanded that China make concessions on Chinese Taipei, the East Sea, the East China Sea, democracy, human rights, and other issues. Rather than making any concessions, China has redoubled its effort to overtake the US as the world’s strongest economy. Although they reached no compromise, both the US and China have signaled a readiness for dialogue to keep their confrontations from spiraling out of control.

6. AUKUS profoundly changes Indo-Pacific landscape
The Tripartite Security Agreement reached by Australia, the UK and the US (AUKUS) on September 15 marked a new step in the US’s pivot to the Indo-Pacific, and created a major change in the region’s strategic balance. The AUKUS mechanism tightened the relationship between the US, UK and Australia, while worsening the US-China relations, and causing rifts between the US and its European allies. With the EU and the US later announcing their separate Indo-Pacific strategies, the birth of AUKUS Alliance marks a gathering of forces and the Indo-Pacific’s growing geopolitical importance.

7. End of Merkel’s rule – a void and future expectations for Germany and Europe
Angela Merkel’s rule came to an end when Olaf Schozl was confirmed as Chancellor by the German Bundestag on December 8. During her 16 years in office, Chancellor Merkel led Germany and the EU through major crises, including the 2008 financial crisis, the 2015 migration crisis, the 2010 public debt crisis, and Brexit, made Germany a “European locomotive” and accelerated the unification of Europe. Merkel’s departure from politics raises concerns about a power vacuum in Germany and the EU, but also rekindles hopes for winds of change in the near future.

8. Political upheaval in Myanmar, Sudan, Guinea
On February 1, the National Alliance for Democracy underpinning the civilian government of Myanmar, was stripped of its power and power was transferred to the military. In Africa, Sudan was plunged into a political crisis after the military dissolved the Sudanese power-sharing government and declared a state of emergency on October 25. In 2021, Africa also witnessed coups in Mali and Guinea. These worrisome political developments reflected a trend of political and social instability in many countries.

9. Russian-Western relations on the brink of breakdown
Russia-Ukraine relations suddenly worsened with the two sides increasing military buildups near the border between Russia and Ukraine. Between problems in the Baltic Sea and Black Sea area and a migration crisis on the Poland-Belarus border, the risk of conflict between the West and Russia reached its highest level since the Cold War. On December 17, Russia published the draft of the eight-point treaty with the West aimed at easing tensions in Europe and defusing the Ukraine crisis. If a new agreement is not reached soon, Russia-Western relations could reach a dangerous tipping point.

10. First commercial space flight ushers in new era of space travel
On the evening of September 15, the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) successfully launched the world’s first private spacecraft into Earth orbit. The event marked the ambitious start of a new space tourism industry. Following SpaceX, companies Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin also launched private flights carrying passengers into space.

Source: https://vovworld.vn/en-US/current-affairs/top-10-world-events-of-2021-1061358.vov

The post Top 10 world events of 2021 first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Beijing’s 2035 vision for “basic socialist modernization” includes few specific targets and did not specifically mention the United States. China’s total economic size and per capita income “will climb to a new big level” by 2035, with significant improvements in its economic, technological, and comprehensive power, according to the communique of the fifth plenary session of the Communist Party Central Committee.

Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in China will reach that of a “mid-level advanced country”, with a bigger middle-income group at home and “new competitive advantages” abroad by then, according to the communique. In summary, China will be a rich, green, fair, and formidable economic power by 2035.

If this vision can be achieved, the natural result is that China’s economic influence will exceed that of the US. In terms of total economic size, for instance, since China’s population is almost four times that of the US, a per capita GDP that is about half of the US level would make China’s economy twice as large.

It is worth noting that Beijing now views the trend of continuous growth with absolute certainty. What the Chinese leadership is foreseeing is that the country’s growth rate may vary year to year – as evidenced by the way the coronavirus outbreak resulted in a dip in the growth rate this year – but the upward trend will stay on track until at least 2035.

(South China Morning Post)

Source: https://wbj.pl/china-plans-to-overtake-us-as-the-worlds-no-1-economy/post/128890

The post China plans to overtake US as the world’s No 1 economy first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

President Donald Trump’s decision to drop plans for new tariffs on Mexico is rare good news for a world economy that’s being buffeted by escalating US-China trade tensions.

President Donald Trump’s decision to drop plans for new tariffs on Mexico is rare good news for a world economy that’s being buffeted by escalating US-China trade tensions.

Central bank chiefs and finance ministers gathered in Fukuoka, Japan, for meetings of the Group of 20 were quick to welcome Trump’s move, describing it as a clear removal of one of the biggest worries facing companies and investors.

“It’s good that the 5% tariffs won’t now be imposed, and that’s not just good for the US and Mexico, it’s also beneficial for the global economy, “Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told reporters.

Indonesia Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati described the news as “very plus plus” and said it may signal that the U.S. and China can also reach an agreement in their trade dispute.” We do hope this recognition is going to create a more reasonable policy direction,” Indrawati said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Broader concerns over rising protectionism and the U.S.-China trade war is dominating discussions here, with officials warning the dispute continues to hurt growth.  The G-20 communique is still under discussion, with Japanese officials seeking to limit debate over trade in order to keep thing moving, according to a person familiar with the matter.  The host nation is aiming to find consensus on the final wording>

Leading into the meetings, the World Bank cut its 2019 global growth forecast, citing a slowdown in trade growth to the weakest since the financial crisis a decade ago and a drop in global investment. The bank forecast that the world economy will expand 2.6% this year, compared with a projection of 2.9% it made in January.

“There’s no doubt that the escalating trade tensions have weighed on the global economic outlook,” Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg told Bloomberg Television Friday. On a panel on Saturday in Fukuoka, China’s Finance Minister Liu Kun warned the world economy is weak.

Still, in a sign that multilateralism is not completely out of fashion, policy makers at the meetings called for continued progress on finding ways to limit international tax evasion.Cooperation “stands out as a case study on how multilateralism can be effective in the face of today’s challenges,” India Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on a panel Saturday. “Multi-laterally is the way to go,” Angel Gurria, secretary-general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, said on the same panel.

The post No new tariffs: Trump’s Mexico reprieve is good news for world economy first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.