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Germany’s new leaders want to reform the EU

Wester Van Gaal - EU Observer — Thu, 25 Nov 2021 07:09:50 +0000

The SPD, the Greens and the pro-business FDP on Wednesday (24 November) presented a deal to form a new German government, including a European reform agenda that should lead to a federal Europe.

“My most important message: the traffic light [coalition] stands,” Olaf Scholz told press – a reference to the parties respective colours red-yellow-green.

“We will modernize our country, build up a climate-neutral industry with cutting-edge technology that is ‘Made in Germany’,” he said, describing what the deal called the “socio-ecological market economy.”

“This will not come cheap,” he said. “This new coalition will need to make massive investments while adhering to national debt brake.”

At the start of the talks, many expected the negotiations to drag on due to the differences between the Greens and business-friendly FDP.

But a final compromise was reached on Wednesday, two months after the election, with the Greens abandoning their plans to introduce tougher speed limits, and FDP accepting a stronger than expected climate mandate (that includes an accelerated coal phaseout by 2030, eight years earlier than previously planned) and an end to power generation from gas by 2040.

EU federation?

The 177-page agreement also proposes ambitious EU reform. It will push for a Conference on the Future of Europe to turn into a constitutional convention, while supporting “necessary treaty changes” that will “lead developments to a European federal state.”

Top of the list is a new system for European elections that allows transnational lists for the European Parliament, which should also get a right of initiative – in other words the right to propose new legislation.

Currently, MEPs in the EU parties represent a national party. This move will start a move to a broader decentralized European voting system.

The coalition also favours the next commission president to be a ‘Spitzenkandidat’ [German for ‘lead candidate’], continuing the disputed system whereby individual EU parties put forward their own top candidate for the presidency.

Germany has in the past sabotaged its own system on this, pushing Ursula von der Leyen ahead of Frans Timmermans, S&D’s Spitzenkandidat and initially considered favourite for the top spot.

Finally, the it wants a stronger EU foreign office by replacing the unanimous voting system requiring all EU ministers to agree, with a qualified majority, overseen by a dedicated EU foreign minister.

Finance ministry goes to FDP

The Greens will receive the ministries of economy and climate and of foreign affairs. They also get the right to propose a future EU commissioner, in case Ursula von de Leyen does not get re-elected – a first for the party.

Having fiscal hawk Christian Lindner as finance minister, the country’s second-most powerful position following the chancellery was one of the FDP’s make-or-break conditions.

And while Lindner told press Germany will continue to be an “advocate for sound finances”, but also stressed Germany and Europe need investment to modernise.

The agreement does not make mention of a return to pre-pandemic strict fiscal discipline, which some feared, but instead states EU-fiscal rules need to be “developed further” and should be “simpler and more transparent.”

It also adds the goal of possible reform must be to “secure growth, safeguard debt sustainability and foster green investment.

“No red lines here, but an open and constructive opening position for negotiations,” Lucas Guttenberg of the Delors Centre, a think-tank based in Berlin, tweeted.

Rule of law

Significantly, the agreement also included stronger wording on the rule of law. MEP Sven Giegold (Greens/EFA), who negotiated on behalf of the Greens, told press the new government feels the EU rule of law mechanism has not been used “decisively enough in the recent years.”

The agreement calls on the commission not to release recovery fund money to countries that do not ensure an independent judiciary, adding that Germany will vote against releasing the funds if countries do not respect the rule of law.

However, it does not specifically mention Poland or Hungary – which have both challenged the mechanism at the European Court of Justice (ECJ).

Hungary has also introduced legislation that targeted LGBTIQ people.

Sustainable taxonomy

The document does not mention the EU taxonomy for sustainable investment.

In recent weeks, French president Emmanuel Macron has put pressure on the commission and other member states to include nuclear energy in the bloc’s sustainable investment rules.

France has entered an alliance with pro-gas member states to form a majority at the next EU council meeting in December to push through the controversial energy source, and label it suitable for sustainable investment.

Earlier on Wednesday, a group of MEPs pushed the German and French governments not to label nuclear and gas as green.

In response, Giegold declined to say what the new government’s stance was on the potential inclusion of gas in the green rulebook, adding that “it is not in the German interest to start with a fight over the taxonomy.

Members of the respective coalition parties will still need to vote for the deal, but this is expected to be a formality, and the intention is that SPD leader Olaf Scholz will be elected chancellor by the Bundestag in the week of 6 December.

Source: https://euobserver.com/democracy/153624

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The next German government’s foreign policy

Council on Geostrategy — Fri, 12 Nov 2021 10:04:21 +0000

When it comes to foreign policy in Germany, the differences between the mainstream political parties are few and the level of public interest low. Foreign policy barely featured as an issue in the recent federal election campaign or in the televised debates between the three leading candidates for the chancellorship. It will not be a showstopper in the negotiations to form the next government, either.

Those negotiations have just started. A three-party coalition will be required and the two smaller parties, the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP), have begun by talking together bilaterally before engaging with the Social Democrats (SDP), who are now the largest party in the Bundestag. It is not a certainty that a coalition of these three parties will be formed and the FDP, in particular, will want to keep open the possibility of an agreement with the Christian Democrats instead. But initially at any rate the momentum is clearly with the so-called ‘traffic light’ option.

It will be an unusual coalition: partly because it will, for the first time, involve three parties, but also because the party providing the chancellor will represent only around one-quarter of the vote and the two other parties jointly about the same. If the two smaller parties are able to combine together, as they are currently trying to do, their influence will be significantly stronger.

This will have consequences for the new coalition’s position on some foreign policy issues. Both the Greens and the FDP take human rights more seriously than the mercantilist SPD and will wish the next government to be more robust in its criticism of Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). They will not, in either case, go as far as to demand trade boycotts or sanctions, but they will expect Germany to speak up more on the Uyghurs’ plight and perhaps put pressure on German companies with investments in Xinjiang to do more to combat forced labour.

They will however face a dilemma over Nordstream II, the new pipeline bringing Russian gas across the Baltic to Germany, which is about to start operating. Both parties expressed opposition to it during the election campaign albeit without specifying what exactly they would do once it was built. The SPD will be reluctant to see it mothballed, so the chances are that it will go ahead as planned.

But it will not be just Russia and the PRC whose domestic policies will cause difficulties with the new German government. Turkey’s too will come under increased scrutiny, as will those of some of the European Union’s (EU) Central and Eastern European members, notably Hungary and Poland. An SPD/Green/FDP German government will not be shy of linking EU countries’ adherence to the rule of law with the disbursement of EU funds.

There will also be tensions in the field of defence. The FDP is in favour of increasing defence expenditure, while the SDP and the Greens are not. Germany is in theory committed to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO) target of spending 2% of national income on defence. NATO estimates that Germany will spend 1.53% in 2021; the last government planned to gradually increase this figure. It seems improbable that an SPD/Green/FDP coalition would actually hit 2% – flat-lining at around 1.5% seems more likely.

More difficult though will be the decision on whether to maintain United States (US) nuclear weapons on German soil; and whether to equip the Tornado replacement aircraft with the capability for delivering free-fall nuclear bombs. Nuclear burden-sharing has been a key element in NATO’s deterrent strategy and if Germany were, as the Greens and some in the SPD want, to try to opt-out of direct involvement in it, this would put additional strain on the transatlantic alliance.

What will not change under any new German government will be a purported enthusiasm for more European defence. There will be frequent calls for a European army, for a European ‘defence union’ and for European ‘strategic autonomy’. But, as in the past, there is unlikely to be much clarity over what these terms mean or what concrete policies would be required to achieve them. This is an area where there has long been a marked contrast between what German politicians say about the EU and how they actually behave within it.

Another issue to be resolved in the coalition negotiations will be who gets what job. For the last 50 years, the German Foreign Minister has been a member of the minority party in a coalition government (there has not been a Christian Democrat one since 1966); for much of this time, the Foreign Minister was also the Vice-Chancellor. But it is not now a priority for either the Greens or the FDP. The latter want above all the Finance Ministry and a veto right over economic policy. The former want the Environment and Transport ministries.

Annalena Baerbock, the Greens’ candidate for the chancellorship, is widely tipped for the Foreign Ministry. But it is her co-party leader Robert Habeck, who is expected to be Environment Minister and Vice-Chancellor. The only former Green Foreign Minister, Joschka Fischer, was a notable success in the role and was personally responsible for getting his party to endorse Germany’s participation in NATO operations in Kosovo and Afghanistan. Whether Baerbock would have the same clout is unclear.

And what of the next German government’s attitude to the United Kingdom (UK)? Initially at any rate it will probably be benign neglect. Interest in Britain in Germany is declining and the commercial relationship is fading: by the end of the year, Britain will not, according to some forecasts, any longer be among Germany’s top ten trading partners. Olaf Scholz as Chancellor is unlikely to find Boris Johnson a congenial partner: their political styles are diametrically opposed and his priorities will be to establish relationships with Emmanuel Macron and Joe Biden. The German government will also be suspicious of any attempt by the UK to use bilateral contacts to bypass the EU.

At the working level however cooperation will continue, including in defence. The British Army retains a small residual presence in Germany in the form of a joint river crossing unit. The German Navy might in due course be tempted by the idea of participating in a British carrier strike group deployment, as the Netherlands is currently doing. But the performance of the British economy will be the key factor in determining the nature of the future UK-German relationship. Fuel shortages and empty supermarket shelves currently dominate German perceptions of Britain. But if the British economic recovery continues and the UK finds a successful role for itself outside the EU, then Germany, for all its regrets about Brexit, will treat Britain as a serious partner.

Sir Paul Lever was Her Majesty’s Ambassador to Germany (1997-2003) and Chair of the Joint Intelligence Committee (1994-1996). His most recent book is Berlin Rules: Europe and the German Way (I.B. Tauris, 2017).

Source: https://www.geostrategy.org.uk/britains-world/more-of-the-same-the-next-german-governments-foreign-policy/

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Post-war ‘taboo broken’ as far right becomes German state kingmaker

Paul Carrel — Thu, 06 Feb 2020 05:42:05 +0000

Berlin: A German state premier was elected with the support of the nationalist Alternative for Germany and Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives on Wednesday, shattering the post-war consensus among established parties of shunning the far right.

Thomas Kemmerich, a little-known liberal Free Democrat, became the first state premier elected with the support of the AfD, with whom Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrats sided to the disgust of her national coalition partners.

AfD parliamentary party leader Bjoern Hoecke, right, shakes hands with Thomas Kemmerich of the Free Democrats, in Erfurt, Germany.CREDIT: AP

The CDU and all the other established parties have previously ostracised the AfD over what they say are racist views held by some of its members.

Merkel’s Social Democrat national coalition allies accused her CDU of backtracking on a pledge never to cooperate with a far-right party. The CDU rejected the accusation, saying it was not responsible for how AfD lawmakers voted. Wednesday’s ballot was secret.

“The events in Thuringia break a taboo in the history of political democracy in the Federal Republic,” SPD Finance Minister Olaf Scholz tweeted. “Very serious questions arise for us with the CDU’s federal leadership.”

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, leader of the German Christian Democrats.CREDIT: GETTY

The unprecedented alliance provoked outrage from across the political spectrum and put on the spot CDU party leader and Merkel’s heir apparent, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who had sworn off any cooperation with the AfD.

AKK, as she’s known, disavowed the state party’s decision and urged Thuringia to hold a new election.

“This is not a good day – not for Thuringia, not for Germany’s political system,” she told reporters during a visit to Strasbourg, DPA reported. Meanwhile, protesters gathered in front of CDU headquarters in Berlin.

The leader of the FDP, Christian Lindner, said his party would never cooperate with the AfD and instead would seek to form an alternative coalition government.

Die Linke’s Susanne Hennig-Wellsow, right, walks away from Thomas Kemmerich of the Free Democrats, after throwing a bouquet of flowers in front of him, in Erfurt, Germany.CREDIT: AP

The shock vote in Thuringia reveals how the AfD has upended German politics with its presence in all of Germany’s 16 states. The eurosceptic populists gained momentum on wide-spread discontent with Merkel’s immigration policy, which opened the door to more than 1 million mostly Syrian refugees.

“The vote on the new premier minister in the state of Thuringia marks a new milestone in German politics and bears the potential of more shockwaves in national politics,” said ING economist Carsten Brzeski.

Kemmerich won 45-44 against Bodo Ramelow, the outgoing premier of The Left party. Ramelow’s leftist coalition failed to secure a majority in an October regional election.

Kemmerich, whose FDP is the smallest party in the regional assembly, said he would launch talks with the CDU, SPD, and Greens on forming a government.

SPD national leader Norbert Walter-Borjans spoke of an “unforgivable dam burst, triggered by the CDU and FDP”.

Source: https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/post-war-taboo-broken-as-far-right-becomes-german-state-kingmaker-20200206-p53y8t.html

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MERKEL ON BRINK: Chancellor facing SECOND election beating in Hesse as AfD support soars

Alice Scarsi — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 07:09:09 +0000

ANGELA Merkel faces a second defeat in less than two weeks as polls show a massive drop in the support to the Chancellor’s party in the state of Hesse – while far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) looks set to be represented in all the states.

The German Chancellor’s party, the CDU, is to receive only 26 percent of the votes at the upcoming state election in Hesse, according to a survey by pollster Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for broadcaster ZDF.

This would represent a 12 percent drop for Mrs Merkel’s party compared to the Chancellor’s results in the region’s last election in 2013, when the party won 38.3 percent of the seats.

The Social Democrats (SPD), one of Mrs Merkel’s government allies at a national level,is predicted to fall to 20 percent, far below its result of 30.7 percent in 2013, the survey showed.

While the SPD and the CDU’s popularity is falling, the Greens and the AfD are booming.

The Greens will be the big winner in the federal state, the poll showed, jumping into second place with 22 percent support, right after the CDU.

The AfD could gain as much as 12 percent of the votes, a result that would make the party be represented in all state parliaments of Germany for the first time.

A similar outcome would force Mrs Merkel’s party to seek a three-party coalition, as it has happened already in the national parliament after the September 2017 election.

The CDU is likely to form a coalition with Greens and liberal FDP, dubbed ‘Jamaica’ because these parties’ colours match the Jamaican national flag.

Angela Merkel faces a defeat at the state election in Hesse (Image: GETTY)

The FDP’s support looks set to gather 8 percent of the votes, according to the poll.

But a successful outcome of such talks is far from being certain, as Mrs Merkel saw negotiations on forming a Jamaica government at the national level collapsing earlier this year, before she struck a deal with the CDU’s sister party CSU and SDP.

Hesse, a central Germany state home to the financial centre of Frankfurt, will vote on October 28, 14 days after the Bavarian election that saw the CSU suffering its weakest election performance since 1950 in a state vote, losing 16 seats, while the SDP lost 20 seats.

Their losses paved the way to a big win for the Greens and the AfD, who respectively gained 20 and 22 seats in the regional parliament.

Mrs Merkel would be left extremely weakened by a second defeat at the ballot, both at a national level and within her own party.

Angela Merkel’s party looks set to lose 12 percent of the seats at the October 28 elections (Image: GETTY)

Angela Merkel will face her party members at a CDU congress in December (Image: GETTY)

The Chancellor is to face her own party members at a CDU annual gathering in December.

If she does not emerge well from those events, her opponents will be emboldened.

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen polled 1,035 voters in Hesse from Monday October 15 to Wednesday October 17.

(Additional reporting by Monika Pallenberg)

Source: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1033429/angela-merkel-hesse-election-germany-poll-bavaria-election-result-CDU-results-afd-seats

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Merkel’s attack on Trump: German leader tells Davos Stronger EU is needed to take on US

AB News — Wed, 24 Jan 2018 18:23:46 +0000

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German leader Merkel says the current world order is under threat

Holly Ellyatt — Wed, 24 Jan 2018 18:13:36 +0000

Merkel said the answer to the world’s problems was to see multilateral solutions instead of a “unilateral, protectionist course” of action.
Merkel is just the latest leader at Davos to criticize a protectionist and isolationist stance towards the world’s problems.

Jason Alden | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, delivers a speech during a plenary session on day two of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday, Jan. 24, 2018. World leaders, influential executives, bankers and policy makers attend the 48th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos from Jan. 23 – 26.

German leader Angela Merkel said that multilateralism was under threat and said that protectionism is not the answer to the world’s problems.

“Frankly speaking, the country I have the honor to represent and where I am chancellor has difficulties. And polarization is something that we see in our country as well, which we haven’t had for decades,” Merkel said.

She attributed increasing populism and polarization to both the euro zone crisis and migration crisis seen in Europe over the last few years following an influx of refugees, but said Germany would not shrink from the world stage.

“Germany wishes to be a country that lends its contribution in the future to solve the problems of the world together, we think that shutting ourselves off and isolating ourselves will not lead us into a good future. Protectionism is not the proper answer,” she said.

Merkel is just the latest leader at Davos to criticize a protectionist and isolationist stance towards the world’s problems. Such comments appear to be directed towards President Donald Trump who has adopted an “America First” stance in his foreign and economic policies.

‘Not learned the lessons from history’

In contrast, Merkel said the answer to the world’s problems was to see multilateral solutions instead of a “unilateral, protectionist course” of action.

At the start of her address, Merkel referenced both world wars in the 20th century, saying that the “political actors involved had almost sleepwalked into a horrendous situation.” She said there was a danger that the world had not learned the lessons from history.

She said the foundation of the United Nations (UN) was a multilateral and cooperative solution that was borne out of World War II, adding that a multilateral response helped to resolve the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.

Check out the world leaders and celebrities who are at Davos this year

Larry Busacca | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

German coalition talks

Merkel’s comments come amid continued speculation over Germany, and indeed Merkel’s, political future after months of negotiations aimed at forming a coalition government. This after no one party gained a majority in last September’s election.

Merkel’s conservative alliance of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) first attempted to form a coalition with the Green party and pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), but it failed after the parties couldn’t agree on various policies ranging from immigration to euro zone integration.

With no prospect of an alliance, Merkel’s coalition partner in several former governments, the Social Democratic party (SPD) led by Martin Schulz, did a U-turn on an earlier pledge to voters not to go into government with the CDU-CSU again and began talks with Merkel’s conservative alliance in January.

The decision could backfire on the SPD which performed badly in the last election due to its supporters’ disapproval of its alliance with the CDU-CSU. As such, the SPD is likely to extract many concessions from the CDU-CSU during upcoming negotiations in return for its support in government.

There is also doubt over whether Merkel, known as “Mutti” (mother) in Germany, will see out the whole of what will be her fourth term as chancellor and there is speculation on who her successor might be.

Merkel said Wednesday that she would continue to hold talks aimed at forming a government “as quickly as possible.” Speaking on Germany’s economy, she said it had enjoyed 11 years of consecutive growth but needed to modernize and make more progress in terms of digitization.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/24/germany-has-difficulties-and-polarization-that-we-havent-seen-for-decades-merkel-tells-davos.html
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Germany’s Merkel suffers blow as FDP pulls out of coalition talks

BBC — Mon, 20 Nov 2017 14:06:53 +0000

Talks on forming a coalition government in Germany have collapsed, leaving Angela Merkel facing her biggest challenge in 12 years as chancellor.

The free-market liberal FDP pulled out after four weeks of talks with Mrs Merkel’s CDU/CSU bloc and the Greens.

FDP leader Christian Lindner said there was “no basis of trust” between them.

What happens next is unclear, but Mrs Merkel has met President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who has the power to call elections.

Mrs Merkel said she regretted the collapse, adding she would formally tell the German president that negotiations had failed.

CDU deputy chairman Armin Laschet told journalists that Mrs Merkel had held a conference call on Monday morning with the party leadership and had retained its support.

Mrs Merkel’s bloc won September’s poll, but many voters deserted the mainstream parties.

“As chancellor, I will do everything to ensure that this country is well managed in the difficult weeks to come,” she said.

Back to the ballot box?

Analysis by the BBC’s Jenny Hill in Berlin

This is – for post-war Germany – an unprecedented political crisis that could spell the end of the Merkel era.

Weakened by a poor election result in September, the proposed coalition was Mrs Merkel’s only shot at forming a new government.

Germany will now – in all probability – have to go back to the ballot box. But it’s not at all certain that Mrs Merkel’s party will want her to lead them into a fresh election.

The ensuing uncertainty has consequences beyond Germany. Mrs Merkel – who did not attend a summit of EU leaders in Sweden last week – will remain preoccupied with domestic affairs for some time yet. This was, she said last night, a time for deep reflection.

Mrs Merkel must now fight for political survival. The leader who for so many people has represented stability now is fast becoming a symbol of crisis in the heart of Europe.

What went wrong in the talks?

It is not quite clear.

The parties involved in the talks are reported to be deeply divided over tax, asylum and environmental policies.

Although rumours had spread that a deal was close, the FDP’s leader emerged from the venue in the middle of the night surrounded by his party colleagues and told reporters that the party was leaving the process.

Image copyrightAFP/ GETTY IMAGES

Image captionChristian Lindner outlined a string of problems his party had with the others

He said that while the FDP knew it could not steer the course of the entire republic with just 11% of the vote, the parties involved in talks had “no shared vision” of how the country should be modernised, and four weeks of talks had left them with “many inconsistencies, unanswered questions and conflicts”.

“It is better not to rule than to rule badly. Goodbye!” Mr Lindner said.

The co-leader of the Greens, Simone Peter, said the FDP had been “irresponsible, dubious and calculating”.

Her party colleague Katrin Göring-Eckardt said the Greens had been “ready to talk” and found a “much greater understanding” with the CDU and FDP through the talks, especially over migration politics, climate change and agriculture.

Mrs Merkel blamed differing cultures and styles for the collapse but said: “We think we were on a path to finding a solution.”

But a spokesman for her party, Stephan Mayer, told the BBC he did not think the FDP ever intended to join the coalition.

“I have the impression that… it was planned for a long time to quit the negotiations and not to form this coalition,” he said.

One of the sticking points is reported to be whether Syrian refugees should be allowed to bring family members to join them in Germany.

Mrs Merkel’s conservatives, mindful of the electoral success of the anti-Islam, anti-immigrant AfD, are cautious and want to extend a moratorium on allowing migrants to be reunited with their families. The FDP agree with them but the Greens say that the current freeze should be allowed to expire next year.

After winning its first parliamentary seats, AfD (Alternative for Germany) vowed to fight “an invasion of foreigners”.

What happens next?

There are a few options.

Mrs Merkel could form a minority government, for instance with the Greens. But this would leave her having to patch together support for every vote – a big change for a leader who has been used to ruling as part of a grand coalition.

That coalition could return – Mrs Merkel’s Christian Democrats joining with the second-largest party in parliament, the social democratic SPD, would have a comfortable majority.

The SPD has repeatedly ruled out this option. “Voters have rejected” it, said leader Martin Schulz on Sunday, and journalists saw an internal document on Monday that stated the party was still “not available” for a grand coalition. But party leaders may yet be persuaded to change their minds.

Or there could be fresh elections. These would need to be called by President Steinmeier, after a long drawn-out process that would take months. Analysts say new elections would be likely to benefit the AfD most, so other parties would probably try to avoid them.

What reaction has there been?

France’s President Emmanuel Macron, who alongside Mrs Merkel is a key player in the EU, said: “It is not in our interest that the situation becomes tense.” A spokesman for his office said France was hoping for a “strong and stable” Germany.

A spokesman for the UK Prime Minister Theresa May said the talks were a matter for German politicians.

Margaritas Schinas, a spokeswoman for the European Commission, told reporters that she was confident Germany would keep having “stability and continuity” as provided for by the constitution.

Economically, the reaction was felt in the stock market, with Deutsche Bank shares down 1.3%. But after a dip the euro recovered slightly.

“Uncertainty is poison for the economy,” said Jörg Krämer, the chief economist at Commerzbank.

“But the collapse of the talks can hardly be a shock for businesses after four agonising weeks of negotiations.”

Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42047532

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German coalition talks collapse after deadlock on migration and energy

Philip Oltermann — Sun, 19 Nov 2017 08:42:53 +0000

Chancellor Angela Merkel left facing prospect of forming minority government – or fresh elections – after FDP quits negotiations

Angela Merkel and the CDU Bundestag leader Volker Kauder at the coalition talks on Sunday. Photograph: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Exploratory talks to form Germany’s next coalition government collapsed shortly before midnight on Sunday when the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) walked out of marathon negotiations.

“The four discussion partners have no common vision for modernisation of the country or common basis of trust,” the FDP leader, Christian Lindner, announced after the four parties involved missed several self-prescribed deadlines to resolve differences on migration and energy policy. “It is better not to govern than to govern badly.”

The euro slid in Asian trade overnight thanks to the uncertainty in Europe’s powerhouse nation. Against the yen, the euro was down 0.6% on the day to a two-month low and slipped 0.5% against the US dollar. It was down 0.43% against the pound at €1.125.

Chancellor Angela Merkel has been trying to forge a coalition between her Christian Democratic Union (CDU), its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU), the pro-business FDP and the Green party, following federal elections at the end of September.

Announcing the collapse of talks as an “almost historic day”, Angela Merkel on Sunday night insisted that the parties would have been capable of reaching a compromise even in spite of their polarised views on migrations, and described the FDP’s walk-out as “regrettable”.

A so-called “Jamaica” coalition – so nicknamed because the parties’ traditional colours mirror those of the Jamaican flag – represents new ground even for Germany’s experienced leader and has only previously been tested at regional level.

In a month of talks, Merkel has often cut a passive figure as party representatives found themselves at loggerheads over issues such as the question of how many of the migrants who found their way to Germany in 2015 and 2016 would be allowed to be reunited with their families.

Migration emerged as a contentious political issue in Germany following the refugee crisis, when 1.2 million migrants entered the country in 2015-16. The backlash against Merkel’s decision to keep open Germany’s borders has resulted in a far-right party, the anti-refugee Alternative für Deutschland, entering the German parliament for the first time in more than 50 years.

In the coalition talks in Berlin, the CDU, the CSU and the FDP have, at times, worked to outdo each other on calling for a harder line on migration controls.

According to reports in German media, the Green party suggested a compromise over the weekend whereby they would agree to limit Germany’s annual intake of migrants to a benchmark figure of 200,000 – as long as other parties did not rule out allowing migrants with “subsidiary protection” status to be reunited with their families.

The parties have struggled to find a common ground on climate change, with the Greens calling for a reduction in coal-generated power of 8-10 gigawatts while its potential coalition partners have expressed concerns about job losses in the energy and manufacturing sectors.

At the start of the weekend, the FDP leader, Christian Lindner, announced a deadline for the exploratory talks. “If we don’t work it out by 6pm on Sunday, the whole thing is dead,” his deputy, Wolfgang Kubicki, said. Yet the talks went on past that deadline.

If the parties had come to an agreement, negotiations would have moved to the next stage, in which a document with fundamental agreements provides the basis for the carving up of ministerial roles.

With talks now seemingly over, Merkel could seek to form a minority government, either with the FDP or the Greens, and gather support from other parties on individual policy votes.

The Social Democrat leader, Martin Schulz, whose party has played junior partner to Merkel in the German government for the past four years, ruled out the possibility of another grand coalition under his leadership. “The voter has rejected the grand coalition,” Schulz said at a party conference in Nuremberg on Sunday.

Once all other options are exhausted, Germany’s president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, could dissolve the current parliament and call fresh elections. To get there, however, Steinmeier would need first to set into motion a complicated process that would involve a parliamentary vote on Merkel’s role as interim chancellor.

While the debate in Germany over the past few weeks has mainly focused on policy differences between the parties, it is likely to soon shift to the chancellor, and the question of whether or not she still commands sufficient power to hold together a strong government.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/19/german-coalition-talks-close-to-collapse-angela-merkel

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Germany coalition: Merkel’s ‘political party poker’

BBC — Fri, 17 Nov 2017 14:03:14 +0000

Image copyright EPA

Image captionCoalition talks continued on Friday

Negotiations between German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives, the free-market liberal FDP and the Greens to form a so-called Jamaica governing coalition are continuing – so far without agreement. The BBC’s Jenny Hill says failure to reach a deal could herald the end of Mrs Merkel’s leadership.

The German newspapers call it “political party poker” – and for Angela Merkel the stakes could not be higher.

She is weakened after her party’s poor showing in September’s general election.

Her only chance now of forming a government is an unprecedented alliance between three very different political groupings.

At 04:00 on Friday – after 15 hours of talks – Mrs Merkel admitted there was still no agreement between her Christian Democratic Union (CDU – itself riven by infighting), the Green party and the Free Democrats (FDP).

The parties remain deeply divided over tax, asylum and environmental policies.

The most bitter arguments have been over whether Syrian refugees should be allowed to bring family members to join them in Germany. Mrs Merkel’s conservatives – mindful of the electoral success of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), whose anti-immigrant rhetoric won it seats in the Bundestag for the first time – are cautious and want to extend a moratorium on so-called family reunions.

Image copyright EPA

Image captionThe Greens under Cem Özdemir (L) and Katrin Göring-Eckardt are at odds with Mrs Merkel’s conservatives over refugees

But the Greens insist that asylum seekers integrate faster if their relatives are with them, and want a more relaxed approach.

Similar ideological divisions have also thus far prevented an agreement over the future of Germany’s energy industry. The FDP is wary of pledges to significantly reduce power from coal, which puts them wildly at odds with the Greens’ environmental priorities.

Of course much of what is happening now, the last-minute drama, is theatre. The parties must demonstrate to their support bases that they won’t willingly sacrifice their principles for a shot at power.

But every one of the negotiators who stumbled, bleary-eyed, out of the latest marathon talks knows that, if they fail now, Germany will probably have to hold a fresh election.

Image copyright AFP/GETTY

Image caption Christian Lindner’s Free Democrats are wary of pledges to reduce coal use

More than anyone else perhaps, Mrs Merkel is keenly aware of what that might mean. Current opinion polls suggest that her conservatives might come off even worse next time round.

There’s a good chance that her party – already casting about for a successor – might not allow Mrs Merkel to lead them into such a campaign. The chancellor, who has built a reputation worldwide for her ability to negotiate compromises, must now forge the deal of her political life.

Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42025071

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Merkel SINKS: Chancellor gets lowest poll ratings in 6 YEARS amid Jamaica alliance crisis

Rebecca Pinnington — Mon, 13 Nov 2017 05:32:21 +0000

ANGELA Merkel’s CDU is facing its lowest poll ratings in six years as she continues her struggle to negotiate a coalition agreement.

Getty Images

Angela Merkel is currently faced with her lowest poll ratings in six years

Support for the Chancellor’s CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, has dwindled to 32 percent.

In late October, it hit a six-year low, with support at a mere 31 per cent for the first time since 2011.

In 2013 and 2014 the Union parties were experiencing highs of almost 45 per cent approval, but support for beleaguered Chancellor Mrs Merkel has tanked due to her relaxed stance on open-door immigration.

The poor poll performance comes amid uncertainty at the end of protracted and complicated coalition talks, which may not even return a working government for Mrs Merkel and her allies.

Express

Chart: Angela Merkel’s popularity has dropped to a six-year low in recent weeks

Over 2,000 German voters were polled in the weekly “Sunday question”, which takes stock of support for political parties.

Those surveyed are asked: “If there were a general election this Sunday, who would you vote for?”

The current polls show Mrs Merkel‘s support is mainly steady following the general election at the end of September.

But another poll has revealed that most Germans do not want her three-party “Jamaica” coalition with the liberal FDP and the Green party running the country.

Fifty-two per cent of Germans believe the coalition would be bad for the country, according to a poll published by the country’s public broadcaster ARD.

Just 45 per cent thought the coalition would be a good thing for Germany, a 12 per cent fall in support from a previous survey last month. Three per cent were unsure.

Detailed data from the same poll showed Green voters are growing more and more opposed to the partnership, the polls shows, with just 55 per cent now backing it – down from 76 per cent during a similar survey last month.

Getty Images

Angela Merkel arrives for the latest round of coalition talks

Getty Images

Mrs Merkel with her prospective coalition partners

Mrs Merkel is facing uphill talks to put together the coalition, sparking complaints at home that it is taking far too long and drawing too much of her focus.

Compromises in recent weeks have moved talks forward as the Greens have backed down on set dates for banning cars with combustion engines and coal power stations.

While the FDP have given ground by abandoning their campaign pledge of 40 billion euros in tax relief, instead accepting more modest tax cuts.

However when exploratory talks end on November 16 there will still be weeks of formal negotiations to come – and during that time the uncertainty could have an even bigger impact on Mrs Merkel’s party.

Source: http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/879170/Angela-Merkel-Jamaica-alliance-polls-popularity-ratings-lowest-six-years

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The post Merkel SINKS: Chancellor gets lowest poll ratings in 6 YEARS amid Jamaica alliance crisis first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

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