The post Venezuela’s Guaido Speaks to Press After Being Barred From National Assembly first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

(Bloomberg) — Venezuelan politics descended into disarray on Sunday when security forces barred opposition leader Juan Guaido and his backers from entering the National Assembly, allowing loyalists to President Nicolas Maduro to choose an assembly president instead of Guaido.

His suit torn from scaling a fence, Guaido and his supporters went elsewhere and re-elected him anyway, drawing backing from Washington and Latin American and European powers that consider Maduro illegitimate and condemned his actions.

“This is a farce,” said lawmaker Stalin Gonzalez, a Guaido lieutenant after the assembly chose a new leader. “Where is the vote, the list of attendees or the quorum necessary for a vote like this?”

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a statement congratulated Guaido on re-election, adding that “arrests, bribes and blocking access to its building were unable to derail“ the assembly. But with Washington preoccupied over threats of retaliation from Iran, this could prove an opportune time for Maduro to pressure Guaido with relative impunity.

Maduro’s Growing Confidence

The move certainly illustrated growing confidence by Maduro that, despite the country’s spiraling poverty, hunger and dysfunction, Guaido’s yearlong attempt to oust him is losing steam.

A year ago, when Guaido, 36, announced that, as president of the National Assembly, he was interim president of the country since Maduro’s election was rigged and illegitimate, he was greeted with hundreds of thousands of citizens backing him in rapturous rallies. His popularity topped 60%.

On Sunday, the streets didn’t ring out with support for him. They were largely empty. He is polling now in the high 30s, according to Datanalisis. He is still the most popular politician in the country and when guards barred him, he shouted, “Does your girlfriend or your mother agree with what you’re doing? What do they say to you at home?”

After being re-elected by his colleagues, Guaido said they’d go to the assembly on Tuesday to meet. It seems unlikely to occur without a struggle. He added, “Today we defeated the dictatorship again. They did not succeed. 2020 is a second opportunity for Venezuela. We have no doubt that we have the majority, we will use it, we must pressure the dictatorship.”

Three Legislatures

But Maduro controls all the key institutions, including the military, electoral council, and judicial system. In 2017, he also set up an alternative legislature, the National Constituent Assembly. As of now, there appear to be three legislative bodies in an increasingly authoritarian system.

On Sunday, Maduro said new assembly elections were coming this year — and Guaido and his backers will have to decide whether to take part in them. By doing so, they risk losing in a rigged process; by staying away, they lose the only body they still control. Even if they have little power to do much, they have the moral suasion of having been elected.

The man who has now declared himself president of the assembly is Luis Parra, a deputy ensnared in a corruption scandal. While officially a member of the opposition, he has abandoned Guaido. Maduro saluted Parra on television, declaring that the nation’s legislature now has new leadership.

Luis Vicente Leon, head of Datanalisis, called Sunday’s events “the equivalent of a coup against the only legitimately elected institution” in the country. “For an opposition that was already very weak, this is not good news.”

Guaido and the rest of the opposition went to the eastern Caracas headquarters of El Nacional newspaper to hold their vote. Inside a cramped room, a large flag framed Guaido and his deputies, who sat on plastic chairs and listened as lawmakers announced their votes, yelling out “traitor” and “sellout” when Parra and his supporters’ names were called. He won with 100 votes.

Agents in Ski Masks

From dawn on Sunday, the streets around the National Assembly were dominated by the National Guard and National Police. They closed vehicular access with checkpoints and anti-riot trucks. The information ministry barred a number of journalists. Nearby, intelligence agents armed with rifles patrolled wearing ski masks.

Several opposition lawmakers who spent the night in a hotel said agents knocked on their doors claiming there was a bomb threat, checked around and left.

Carlos Romero, a political analyst at Central University of Venezuela, said, “Tomorrow Maduro’s government will undergo even more criticism than before. What happened went beyond what anyone could have predicted. Maduro’s government feels strong enough to carry this out right now because they have succeeded over Guaido’s failed plan to end his government. Maduro was able to forge international allies and divide the opposition.”

While the U.S., most of Europe and most Latin American countries have backed Guaido, Maduro has maintained the support of Russia, China, Cuba, Iran and Turkey, evading U.S. oil and other key sanctions by trading through those countries.

Source: https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/maduro-forces-oust-guaido-from-congress-spark-day-of-chaos-2052791

The post Maduro Forces Oust Guaido from Congress, Spark Day of Chaos first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Venezuela’s embattled President Nicolás Maduro said he had been in talks with the Trump administration for months, even as the US ramped up its sanctions.

The US is one of more than 50 nations which do not recognize Mr. Maduro as Venezuela’s legitimate leader.

On Tuesday, Mr. Maduro said that talks with the Trump administration had been going on for months.

But US National Security Adviser John Bolton said the only thing being discussed was Mr. Maduro’s departure.

Speaking on television, Mr. Maduro said: “Just as I have sought dialogue in Venezuela, I have sought a way in which President Trump really listens to Venezuela.”

President Trump confirmed on Tuesday that his administration was “talking to various representatives of Venezuela”.

“I don’t want to say who, but we are talking at a very high level,” the US president said.

Mr. Maduro had suggested that he authorized the back-channel discussions.

But Mr. Bolton cast those contacts in a very different light, tweeting that the “only items discussed by those who are reaching out behind Maduro’s back are his departure and free and fair elections”.

The US imposed sweeping sanctions earlier this month aimed at increasing pressure on President Maduro to step down.

• Venezuela crisis in 300 words
• What’s behind Venezuela’s political crisis?

What is the situation in Venezuela?

The country has been caught up in a struggle for power between President Maduro and the leader of Venezuela’s National Assembly, Juan Guaidó.

Mr. Guaidó declared himself interim president in January, claiming that the elections which brought Maduro to power for a second term were fraudulent.

While Mr. Guaidó has gained the backing of over 50 countries he has so far failed to remove Mr. Maduro from power.

Talks between the two sides hosted by Barbados and mediated by Norway recently stalled after President Maduro denounced the opposition for backing the sweeping sanctions imposed by the US.

The country is suffering one of the worst economic crises in history with a quarter of its 30 million population in need of aid, according to the United Nations.

More than four million Venezuelans have left the country over the past years.

Why is the US involved?

Mr. Maduro’s government has come under fire by the international community for a number of reasons.

When opposition parties gained a majority in the country’s National Assembly, the president created a rival body stacked with his supporters which assumed many of its powers. His 2018 re-election was controversial and labeled as rigged by his critics after many rivals were barred from running or fled the country.

Protests and demonstrations erupted into violence and were met with a crackdown by authorities which saw civilians killed.

The US has been a frequent target of Mr. Maduro’s anger.

• US sanctions may worsen Venezuela suffering – UN
• ‘Corruption network’ in Venezuela’s food program

Mr. Maduro has accused the US, and John Bolton in particular, of trying to kill him, without supplying any evidence. He claims that his opposition is backed by foreign powers, rather than a domestic resistance to his authority.

Government officials were the first target of US sanctions against Mr. Maduro’s government – but earlier this year, it brought new restrictions forward on the state oil company, which is a major player in the national economy.

That was followed in August by sweeping sanctions that froze all property of the government in the US and blocks American firms doing business with Venezuela.

Source:  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49418451

The post Venezuela crisis: President Maduro says he had secret talks with US first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

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Kate Trinko: Joining us today is Ana Quintana, a senior policy analyst specializing in Latin America at The Heritage Foundation. And she is here to explain to us what’s going on in Venezuela and what the U.S. should do. Ana, thanks for joining us.

The liberal Left continue to push their radical agenda against American values. The good news is there is a solution. Find out more >>

Ana Quintana: Thanks for having me.

Trinko: For those of us who don’t have the best memories. Walk us through why Juan Guaido, not Nicolas Maduro, is the true leader of Venezuela right now and how we got to this mess.

Quintana: Sure. So in May of 2018, Maduro held presidential elections. And they were incredibly fraudulent. … Practically, the only countries that recognized the result were Russia, China, Cuba, the Palestinian Authority, barely any countries recognized the result. So, back then dozens of countries said they would not recognize Maduro as a legitimate leader.

Fast-forward to Jan. 10, Maduro’s supposed inauguration day, that is when Juan Guaido became president because, according to Article 232 specifically, of Venezuela’s constitution, if there exists a void in the presidency, if there exists a legitimate void in the executive, the next in the line of succession is the head of the National Assembly. And Juan Guaido was an elected member of the National Assembly and he was the president of the National Assembly.

Daniel Davis: We’ve heard about a lot of violence happening right now, erupting in the streets. People are protesting. Guaido said that he was … [in] his last phase of revolution against Maduro and the government responded by running people over in the streets. That was last week. Where do things stand right now?

Quintana: … Last week has been interpreted as a huge failure for Guaido. That’s not the way I’m looking at it, right? So, Guaido … on Tuesday, was trying to lead a military uprising against Maduro and people have tried to classify this as a coup; it’s not. You can’t lead a coup against somebody who’s a usurper who is an illegitimate president. So, Guaido called upon the military to help him essentially pressure Maduro out of power.

That did not work but what ended up happening was, it exposed that 1. Maduro does not have the full control of the military. He spent 14 hours not appearing on TV and he didn’t call upon the military to protect him because it was revealed that his minister of defense was actually conspiring with Guaido against him.

2. He called on the paramilitaries to protect him, which is quite significant. … Typically when you would see these protests, Maduro would call the military to repress protesters. He called in the paramilitaries to repress the protesters. And you would always see kind of widespread death, that did not happen.

Also, Maduro’s chief of intelligence defected. That is huge. Imagine all the secrets this man knows. He is the chief of military and domestic intelligence.

Davis: Wow.

Quintana: So now the situation is, kind of fast-forward to today, Maduro is weak. Maduro’s incredibly vulnerable. He’s in a situation right now where he’s looking to his left and to his right and to his inner circle wondering, “Who’s conspiring behind my back? Who’s trying to hedge their bets? Who’s trying to plan for Day Zero when I’m not around?”

And, frankly, I think there is probably a lot more of them than not. So I think Guaido … has a significant advantage right now but I think we should recognize that it’s not inevitable that Maduro falls. Right? He could perpetually stay into power.

I mean, look at what happened in Syria with Assad. Assad, I remember, back when, at the height of the Syrian civil war, people said, “Oh, Assad only has five, six more months.” And look how the Russians guided him through this. And that’s exactly what the Russians are now doing with Maduro.

Trinko: Tell us more. Why is Russia caring about Venezuela and why are they getting involved?

Quintana: Oh, man. I mean, think about this. If you’re the Russians, this is low-hanging fruit. Right? This is an opportunity for you to stick your thumb in the eye of the United States. It’s an opportunity for you to insert yourself in the middle of a conflict and to distract attention away from all the other bad things that you’re doing in Ukraine, in the Middle East, in Syria, and kind of the other bad things that you want to do elsewhere.

And now the Russians have … inserted themselves inside of Venezuela and they’re essentially a power broker. So they can sit down with the United States and they can say, “Hey, you need my help solving this crisis. This is what I want. I want, in exchange for you to leave me alone in Ukraine, for you to let me have Crimea, for you to let me have X, Y, and Z.”

Also, the Venezuelans owe the Russians a lot of money. There is a lot of money, I think it’s probably close to $10 billion, if I’m not mistaken.

And for the Russians it’s to their benefit to have such a powerful ally in charge of such a powerful country like Venezuela. It’s the most oil-rich nation in the entire world. It’s a country that’s able to project a significant amount of power in Latin America. The Russia-Cuba relationship is always going to exist but Cuba doesn’t have the capacity nor the power to project and to spread influence like it once did.

Trinko: Just to follow-up on what you said about how Russia has a history of propping up dictators, are we talking military weapons here? Are we talking strategic advise?

How, when Maduro finds himself in this situation so isolated from some of his own people, as you discussed, some of his top people, can Russia practically help?

Quintana: Everything that you just stated right there. Venezuela has been the largest purchaser and recipient of Russian weapons—from tanks, I think it’s been about 100 tanks, about 5,000 surface-to-air missiles, MANPADS. It’s just been this wide plethora of weapons that the Venezuelans have purchased from the Russians.

… You have dozens, if not hundreds, of Russian military advisers inside of Venezuela. The Russians are providing the Venezuelans with political advise.

… There’s an outsized value of Russia’s contributions to Maduro right now, regardless of how weak he is. Because he’s incredibly weak, he has nobody around him that he can trust, but he does have the Russians.

… Maduro knows that he is protected because right now, he’s internationalized this conflict. He has now made this a conflict between Russia and the United States. And he knows by raising these stakes and not just making it something between he himself, this South American dictator, he is now able to project a lot more power.

Davis: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the president have spoken pretty strongly against what Russia’s doing. And Cuba. But … at the end of the day, what do they do? What can they do? To stop, cut off Russia’s influence? Apart from, like you were saying, conceding stuff in Eastern Europe.

Quintana: Yeah, no, they definitely shouldn’t sit down at a negotiating table with the Russians and concede anything. Nor with the Cubans. I definitely think, 1. They need to sit down and talk with the Cubans and the Russians. But I think, this is a time to make them pay a cost. They cannot get away with what they have been doing inside of Venezuela, with what they’ve continued to do for God knows how many years.

This is an opportunity right now to look at visa and travel restrictions against Russian oligarchs. Right? To hit them financially where it hurts. Because that’s where these guys respond.

These guys don’t respond to diplomatic statements and to condemnation and all these things. They don’t care about that. For them, they actually fundraise and make money off of that, it makes them look good when the United States attacks them, frankly.

And on the Cuba side of things, I think that’s where the administration has been incredibly tough by implementing … this host of … sectoral sanctions and opening Cuba up to the possibility of being sued by American companies. But, frankly, I think it’s very difficult for the United States to do a lot of this when our European partners aren’t being helpful.

Trinko: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo didn’t rule out military action. Do you think there’s any chance that Venezuela could be the next Iraq or Afghanistan?

Quintana: … The regime of Nicolas Maduro, this is not a regime of politicians. This is a regime of thugs. And you don’t speak to them in statesmen-like diplomatic terms. You talk to them like thugs and you scare them like thugs and I think … we should be scaring these guys. We should scare them out of power.

That being said, I think at this juncture, at this point, any sort of military intervention would have the complete opposite adverse effect. It would be the absolute worst thing this administration could do.

… There are some ideas that have been floated around, a tactical precision strike to take out key military installations. That would be stupid because that would draw the United States into this long-term peacekeeping operation. And then on the other side, a ground invasion, the same thing. It would also draw the United States into a long-term peacekeeping operation and then there’s a humanitarian fallout.

… There’s little to be gained and so much more to be lost and we’ve seen it in Libya. We’ve seen it in so many other countries where we think we can take a dictator out quickly, militarily, and it just devolves into such an even bigger mess.

Davis: And you can’t have a U.N. force in there, right? Because Russia’s on the Security Council. So they would veto everything.

Quintana: … And that’s the other challenge, right? Russia’s on the U.N.—

Davis: Once again, highlighting the uselessness of the Security Council.

Quintana: It highlights the … ridiculousness of much of the U.N. system. That it gives this outsized influence to countries like Russia and China, that just don’t have a serious humanitarian bone in their body. No.

Davis: Recently, … Rep. Ilhan Omar made a comment about Venezuela. She told Democracy Now, quote, “A lot of the policies that we have put in place has kind of helped lead the devastation in Venezuela. And we’ve sort of set the stage for where we’re arriving today.” End quote.

And, quote, “This particular bullying and the use of sanctions to eventually intervene and make regime change really does not help the people of countries like Venezuela, and it certainly does not help and is not in the interest of the United States.”

Thoughts?

Quintana: It’s like there’s these boiler plate quotes that all the progressives use to criticize anything that the United States does when they have no concept of what exactly is happening.

U.S. sanctions have largely been against corrupt Venezuelan government officials for humanitarian reasons. They have been to cut off the financial access for these regime officials to make money and to stop them from drug trafficking.

One of the sanctions was against then-Vice President Tareck El Aissami, who was found to be a drug trafficker along with Los Zetas and they’ve discovered over $500 million of drug trafficking-related assets in the United States.

I don’t understand how seizing $500 million of narcotics-related assets that were trafficked with Los Zetas hurts the Venezuelan people. She has no idea what she’s talking about.

Trinko: Speaking of the Venezuelan people, how are they faring right now? Are there food shortages? Or are they facing violence? What is life like in Venezuela right now?

Davis: And what about that electricity outage? Is that still happening, too?

Quintana: The electricity outages are horrible. … Consider just how much the regime has destroyed the country.

Venezuela is the most oil-rich nation in the entire world. This is a country that literally used to produce about 3.5, 3.6 million barrels of oil per day. … It had enough oil to export and to use for it’s own domestic consumption. It’s now producing about 900,000 barrels of oil per day; it’s gone down fourfold in the last 10 years. And half of that oil is used to service external debt.

So Venezuela is in a position right now where it’s importing refined oil for it’s own internal consumption. Which is just … mind-boggling to consider that this is a country that has the most oil resource.

These electricity shortages are a consequence of just not investing in the energy infrastructure. They just did not care. The regime has stolen so much money, they’ve used the oil industry as a slush fund for party loyalists.

Ffor the average Venezuelan, it’s estimated that 90% of people live in poverty. About 5 million Venezuelans are going to leave the country by the end of this year. Venezuelan migrants and refugees are scattered all throughout Latin America. There’s about 2 million right now in Colombia.

The situation is bad. It is a dire, dire humanitarian catastrophe and the worst part is, it’s a man-made crisis.

Davis: Well, Ana Quintana, as always, we appreciate your expertise. We’ll be watching the situation unfold. Thank you.

Quintana: No, thank you guys.

Source: https://www.dailysignal.com/2019/05/08/us-russia-vie-over-the-future-of-venezuela/

The post US, Russia Vie Over the Future of Venezuela first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.