An Israeli activist holds a banner during a protest against the US peace plan for the Middle East, in front of the US ambassador’s residence in Jerusalem, on May 15, 2020, as Palestinians commemorate the 72nd anniversary of the 1948 Nakba or “catastroph” which left hundreds of thousands of Palestinians displaced by the war accompanying the birth of Israel. AFP

Palestinians pray during a protest marking the 72nd anniversary of Nakba and against Israeli plan to annex parts of the occupied West Bank, in the village of Sawiya near Nablus May 15, 2020. Reuters

Palestinian medics run away from tear gas fired by Israeli troops during a protest marking the 72nd anniversary of Nakba and against Israeli plan to annex parts of the occupied West Bank, in the village of Sawiya near Nablus May 15, 2020. Reuters

A Palestinian man argues with an Israeli border policewoman during a protest marking the 72nd anniversary of Nakba and against Israeli plan to annex parts of the occupied West Bank, in the village of Sawiya near Nablus May 15, 2020. Reuters

Israeli activists hold placards as they protest against the US peace plan for the Middle East in front of the US ambassador’s residence in Jerusalem, on May 15, 2020. AFP

Since Donald Trump became US President, the walls have been rapidly closing in on Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian President, and his commitment to negotiating a two-state agreement with Israel.

In January, Mr. Trump issued a “peace proposal” that virtually invites Israel to annex about 30 percent of the occupied West Bank, including the strategically crucial Jordan Valley. Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, successfully campaigned to remain in office on a promise to do exactly that in the coming months.

A Palestinian man argues with an Israeli border policewoman during a protest against Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestine, near Nablus in the West Bank on May 15, 2020. Reuters

The Trump administration has asked Tel Aviv to wait until a joint Israeli-US mapping committee determines which chunks of Palestinian territory Washington will allow Israel to devour. Palestinians have not been included in any of these conversations whatsoever. Naturally, they are desperate to assert their agency, make themselves relevant, and press the international community to act fast to save the possibility of a two-state peace agreement.

On Tuesday, Mr. Abbas voiced this anguish, declaring: “The Palestine Liberation Organisation [of which he is the chairman] and the State of Palestine are no longer committed to all signed agreements and understandings with the Israeli government and the American government, including security commitments.”

It’s not clear what this announcement will mean in practical terms for the Palestinian Authority government in Ramallah and its considerable administrative and governance role in the lives of Palestinians living under Israeli occupation. But by adding that Israel would now have to “uphold responsibilities before the international community as the occupying power” he was clearly hinting at the PLO’s longstanding “nuclear option” of dismantling the quasi-independent Palestinian administration that has been developed within the occupation’s broader context since 1993.

Nickolay Mladenov, called May 20, 2020 on Israel to drop plans to annex parts of the occupied West Bank, joining a growing international chorus of opposition. AFP

Dismantling it would certainly create innumerable headaches for Israel. If the PA completely closes its institutions, Israel would theoretically have to step in and directly rule Palestinian towns as well as provide for the basic needs of the population.

That’s not something many Israelis want to do, but it’s not impossible either.

The greatest brunt, especially at first, would be felt by ordinary Palestinians, who would lose a wide range of administrative and social services and, in many cases, jobs; the PA and its subordinate agencies are the biggest employers in the West Bank and Gaza.

Completely renouncing the Oslo Accords and refusing to deal with Israel would also mean giving up most of the PA’s operating budget, which is funded by Palestinian taxes that under the accords are collected by Israel and transferred to the Authority.

But apart from repeated declarations that the Palestinians have ended all security and intelligence co-operation with Israel and the US, there is no sign that the PA has changed its functional modus operandi. No one seems to have resigned from, let alone closed, any office, though Palestinian security forces have reportedly been withdrawing from certain areas.

The bottom line is that Palestinians have not developed any practicable alternative national strategy to seeking a political agreement with the Israelis. If negotiating with Israel now seems a complete dead-end, armed struggle has an even worse track record. And no one in their right mind really believes Israel is going to be brought to heel by the UN or to its knees by grassroots international boycotts.

So, this threat is probably an empty one, at least until a new leadership with an alternative vision emerges – although the dire situation certainly demonstrates the urgent need for both.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas heads a leadership meeting at his headquarters, in the West Bank city of Ramallah, on May 19, 2020. AP

It is difficult to understand what Mr. Abbas hoped to gain by this speech under the current circumstances. Some Palestinians whisper that the plan was for him to emphasize that this is what the PA and PLO had always intended to do in the event of a major Israeli annexation. That makes more sense, given that should Israel grab all that land such a response would probably be inevitable and arguably justifiable.

But it hasn’t happened yet. And it may not. Publicly, the Trump administration is not urging Israelis to avoid annexation for the rest of the year, but it isn’t encouraging them either. It’s hard to imagine that Mr. Trump would be disappointed if the Israelis decide to wait and see what happens.

With the looming threat of a Joe Biden presidency, Tel Aviv may feel some urgency to act now. But Mr. Biden has pointedly repeated his commitment to a two-state solution and insists he won’t be bound by any new commitments Mr. Trump makes that would render it impossible and is even prepared to reverse them. Is that a fight Israel really wants to have with Washington in 2021 and beyond?

Since it’s unclear what the Israelis will do, why would Palestinians want to appear to be abrogating the very agreements, particularly the Oslo Accords’ Declaration of Principles, that explicitly disallow annexation?

No doubt Mr. Abbas is trying to remain relevant and to communicate the level of Palestinian desperation and despair to an apparently apathetic international community. But the price for such defiant-but-empty bluster – reminiscent of the “you’re leaving because I want you to go” genre of torch song – is potentially quite high. Much wiser to let Israel administer the rhetorical as well as practical coup de grace to the Oslo process.

The Palestinian leadership has said this kind of thing before, although not quite so categorically, and then decided, in the cold light of day, that canceling co-operation, let alone dismantling fledgling Palestinian national institutions, doesn’t make much sense. It is, we keep discovering, easy, and even habitual for both parties’ rash actions to hurt Palestinians and Israelis simultaneously.

Fortunately, Israel and the US are essentially ignoring the speech. Unfortunately, there may come a time when such drastic declarations and steps become unavoidable. But last week wasn’t it. The immediate goal for all responsible actors must be avoiding such a calamitous, but closer than ever, point of no return.

Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States ­Institute in Washington

Source: https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/palestine-s-mahmoud-abbas-is-threatening-the-nuclear-option-1.1024046#2

The post Palestine’s Mahmoud Abbas is threatening the nuclear option first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

The post IDF aircraft fires into Gaza as violence erupts despite de-escalation calls first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Reuters has reported some 60 Israeli tanks and armored personnel carriers now stationed at a deployment area along the border as of Thursday, which is the largest reported mustering of forces since the 2014 war between Israel and Hamas.

On Thursday a Reuters photographer counted some 60 tanks and armored troop carriers at a deployment area near the Gaza Strip. Via Reuters)​​​​​

Special UN envoy for the Middle East, Nickolay Mladenov, told the UN Security Council on Thursday that “we remain on the brink of another potentially devastating conflict, a conflict that nobody claims to want, but a conflict that needs much more than just words to prevent”.

One of the rockets launched Wednesday reportedly landed in the sea, however, Israeli officials said it came dangerously close to densely populated Tel Aviv. Hamas, for its part, denied responsibility for the rocket launches and said it would investigate.

Meanwhile Israel retaliated in Wednesday airstrikes on Gaza, which reportedly killed at least one Palestinian while injuring several more. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu further convened his security cabinet on the same day of the Gaza rocket launches and promised to take “very strong action” if such attacks continued.

Israel largest armor deployment since the 2014 war was documented by Reuters this week. 

On Tuesday Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman was quoted as saying, “We must land a strong blow against Hamas. That’s the only way to lower the level of violence to zero or close to zero.” He said that Israel’s response must be harsh “even at a price of moving to a wide-scale confrontation”.

Israeli press reports at the end of this week are consistently warning that “Hamas and Israel are one step closer to all-out war” as Israeli tanks and troops continue to muster at the border.

An Egyptian delegation is reportedly in contact with both sides and are trying to prevent a major conflict from erupting. One Palestinian official involved in talks with the Egyptians told Reuters, “The situation is delicate. No one wants a war.”

However, the official described Gaza as at a breaking point: “Palestinian factions are demanding an end to the Israeli blockade that strangled life and business in Gaza,” he said.

UN envoy Mladenov also confirmed before the UN that Gaza’s economy is in free fall, with unemployment at a stunning 53% and 70% of Palestinian youth jobless (according to the World Bank), and further the coastal strip of 2 million people is under near total Israeli blockade. “Gaza is imploding. This is not hyperbole. This is not alarmism. It is a reality,” Mladenov told the UN Security Council.

“Barring substantial steps to reverse the current course, this precarious sense of calm is doomed to give way under the mounting pressure.It is already beginning to fray,” he added.

It appears tensions could explode into yet another round of war starting as early as this weekend. Given the threats of Israeli officials this week, it could slide into the bloodiest campaign in years.

Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-19/gaza-brink-huge-conflict-israel-amasses-tanks-along-border

The post “All-Out War” Coming: Record Number Of Israeli Tanks Amassed On Gaza Border first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

WASHINGTON — US President Donald Trump’s decision to tear up the rule book of US policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict ushered in a new era of unilateral action and uncertainty in the region likely to go beyond the wave of protests triggered by his plan for Jerusalem.

By declaring Jerusalem the capital of Israel and by announcing his intention to move the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, Trump reversed decades of US diplomatic positions.

“We cannot solve our problems by making the same failed assumptions and repeating the same failed strategies of the past,” Trump said in a televised address on December 6. “Old challenges demand new approaches.”

The shift to US unilateralism sparked concern during an emergency session of the UN Security Council two days later. “There is a serious risk today that we may see a chain of unilateral actions, which can only push us further away from achieving our shared goal of peace,” UN Middle East Envoy Nickolay Mladenov said.

US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley was unapologetic about Washington’s determination to go it alone. “Israel will never be, and should never be, bullied into an agreement by the United Nations or by any collection of countries that has proven [its] disregard for Israel’s security,” Haley told the Security Council.

Trump spoke of a “new beginning” for efforts to bring peace to Israelis and Palestinians but did not say how he intends to inject new life into the peace process after handing Israel an important symbolic victory in the long-running conflict with the Palestinians. European powers pressed Washington for details.

Following Trump’s announcement, thousands of Palestinians protested in Jerusalem, in the West Bank and in Gaza. Reports said at least four people had been killed and more than 200 injured in clashes with Israeli police and in attacks by Israeli jets on Hamas positions in Gaza. The air strikes were in retaliation for three rockets being fired from Gaza into Israel. Street protests erupted in virtually all Muslim and Arab capitals.

Trump’s decision triggered predictable bluster and threating talk from radical Islamists. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, an ultra-conservative cleric and a leader of the Tehran weekly Muslim prayers, pledged to destroy Israeli cities. “If one day the Zionist regime wants to make a mistake, we will level Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground,” he said.

Despite the tensions created by Trump’s announcement and the incitement that followed, the unrest was less intense than expected. Among Palestinians and Arab public opinion at large, a sense of despair seemed to take hold. Trump’s initiative could have quashed hopes of a two-state solution. Results of a US opinion poll suggested that the public in at least three Arab countries no longer believes in the possibility of a settlement of the Palestinian problem.

Nearly seven years of strife and chaos since the “Arab spring” seem to have taken their toll on the ability of the Arab world to mobilise around virtually any cause, contrary to decades past. Reports said the Trump administration calculated that the negative fallout from the Jerusalem announcement would be limited. “Trump’s action signals disdain for the opinion of the whole Arab world,” Palestinian-American academic Rashid Khalidi wrote in the Guardian.

However, the president’s stated hope that his shock move would insert new energy into Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts suffered immediate setbacks. Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erekat told Al Jazeera the Palestinians would not talk to the United States unless Trump reversed his Jerusalem decision.

In addition, Jibril Rajoub, a senior official in the Fatah movement of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, said Abbas would not receive US Vice-President Mike Pence, who is to tour the Middle East later in December. The White House warned a refusal by Abbas to meet with Pence would be “counterproductive.”

Trump’s move has further sidelined the United States in the Middle East. Once again, Russia has an opportunity to step into the vacuum. Closer coordination is expected between Moscow, Ankara and Tehran.

Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly contributor in Istanbul.

Source: http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=86378

The post Trump’s Jerusalem Decision Ushers in New Era of Unilateralism, Uncertainty first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.