(Photo: Alexander Gerst/ESA/NASA via AP)

Even before Hurricane Florence made landfall somewhere near the border of North and South Carolina, predicted damage from potentially catastrophic flooding from the storm was already being blamed on global warming.

Writing for NBC News, Kristina Dahl contended, “With each new storm, we are forced to question whether this is our new, climate change-fueled reality, and to ask ourselves what we can do to minimize the toll from supercharged storms.”

The theory is that tropical cyclones have slowed down in their speed by about 10 percent over the past 70 years due to a retreat of the jet stream farther north, depriving storms of steering currents and making them stall and keep raining in one location. This is what happened with Hurricane Harvey in Houston last year.

But like most claims regarding global warming, the real effect is small, probably temporary, and most likely due to natural weather patterns. Any changes in hurricanes over 70 years, even if real, can easily be part of natural cycles — or incomplete data. Coastal lake sediments along the Gulf of Mexico shoreline from 1,000 to 2,000 years ago suggest more frequent and intense hurricanes than occur today. Why? No one knows.

Unusual things happen in nature sometimes

The Massachusetts Bay Colony in 1635 experienced a Category 3 or 4 storm, with up to a 20-foot storm surge. While such a storm does not happen in New England anymore, it happened again there in 1675, with elderly eyewitnesses comparing it to the 1635 storm.

Until 2017, the United States went 11 years without a major hurricane strike — something that is statistically very improbable. Nine years into that 11-year hurricane drought, a NASA scientist computed it as a 1-in-177-year event.

My point is that nature varies, and unusual things happen sometimes.

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Now it’s fashionable to blame stalling hurricanes on global warming. In the case of Florence, the jet stream is indeed pushed farther north. But examination of a weather map of the atmospheric flow at an altitude of 18,000 feet shows the jet stream is pushed farther south over western North America. This kind of natural variation in atmospheric flow is called weather, not climate change. It’s just a roll of the dice. Hurricane-steering currents are subject to whatever the weather happens to be when they arrive at the U.S. coast.

No one should dismiss or minimize the damage that Florence will likely do. Hurricanes can be deadly. I completely agree with Ms. Dahl’s NBC News piece that “right now, ournumber one priority has to be ensuring the safety of those in Florence’s evolving path, as well as the first responders helping them.”

The cost of storms has risen, not their severity

But a major hurricane hits North Carolina on average once every 20 years or so. The last was Fran in 1996, which is 22 years ago. Coastal residents know they live under a yearly threat of hurricanes, and sometimes (though relatively rarely), one of those hurricanes will be very strong.

Well, aren’t we being told these storms are getting stronger on average? The answer is no. The 30 most costly hurricanes in U.S. history (according to federal data from January) show no increase in intensity over time. The monetary cost of damages has increased dramatically in recent decades, but that is due to increasing population, wealth and the amount of vulnerable infrastructure. It’s not due to stronger storms.

If humans have any influence on hurricanes at all, it probably won’t be evident for many decades to come. Natural variability is simply too large. This should not be surprising given that humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions have caused only a1 percent change in the natural energy flows coursing through the climate system.

Roy W. Spencer, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, is author of the Kindle e-books “Inevitable Disaster: Why Hurricanes Can’t Be Blamed on Global Warming” and “Global Warming Skepticism for Busy People.” Follow him on Twitter:@RoyWSpencer 

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Florence will slowly move westward this weekend bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds to the Carolinas, producing catastrophic inland flooding before kicking off an agonizing crawl through the Southeast and Appalachia into early next week,

Happening Now

Rainfall amounts have totaled 15 to 25 inches in many locations in eastern North Carolina through early Saturday. Local roadways are impassable and are closed in numerous locations, which has isolated residents.

As a result, several flash flood emergencies remain in effect Saturday morning in eastern North Carolina due to these conditions and additional rainfall:

• Southeastern Jones, southeastern Craven, Carteret and Pamlico counties, including New Bern, Morehead City, Newport
• Jones, southwestern Lenoir, northeastern Onslow and northeastern Duplin counties, including Jacksonville, Kinston and Swansboro
• Southwestern Onslow and Duplin counties, including North Topsail Beach and Mount Olive

Florence is located about 35 miles west of Myrtle Beach, North Carolina or 45 miles south-southeast of Florence, North Carolina, as of early Saturday morning.

It will continue to move slowly this weekend and a turn toward the west and northwest is anticipated later Saturday and Sunday.

Two spots are aiming to take down North Carolina’s tropical cyclone rainfall record: Newport with 23.75 inches of rainfall and Morehead City with just over 23 inches so far. The previous record is 24.06 inches from Hurricane Floyd in 1999.

As of Saturday morning, winds continue to gust higher than 50 mph at times. A sustained wind of 48 mph with a gust to 57 mph was recently reported at Mercer Pier, North Carolina.

For additional rain, wind and storm surge reports, see the bottom of this article.

Tropical storm warnings remain posted near and inland from the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina.

Steering currents have fallen apart allowing Florence to slow down tremendously as it drifts in eastern South Carolina.

Gradual weakening of winds is expected over the weekend as it moves farther inland, but extremely heavy rainfall will increase flooding potential.

Florence will move through the southern and central Appalachians this weekend into early next week.

By early to mid next week, whatever is left of Florence will swing northeastward across the northern Appalachians and into the Northeast.

(Florence’s Final Chapter: The Northeast Forecast)

Forecast Impacts

– High-Impact Rainfall: Florence will produce high-end flash flooding between Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and Morehead City, North Carolina.

The National Hurricane Center noted that “life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas and the southern and central Appalachians late this week into early next week.”

That heavy rain threat may last for days into early next week in some areas, given Florence’s slow movement. Returning evacuees should be aware that flooding may last in the eastern Carolinas well into next week, including flooding across roadways and into homes.

Disastrous flooding is expected in some areas, not simply near the coastal Carolinas where the heaviest rain totals are forecast, but also in the Appalachians where heavy rain over mountainous terrain is likely to trigger mudslides and rockslides. See the link below for more information.

(MORE: Potentially Catastrophic Inland Flooding Possible)

According to the National Hurricane Center, Florence is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

• Southern and central portions of North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina: an additional 10 to 15 inches, with isolated totals up to 40 inches
• Rest of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwestern Virginia: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated totals up to 15 inches
• West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches.

The runoff from these incredible rainfall totals will continue for days, and then will enter the riverways of the Carolinas. Flooding may swell these watersheds for weeks, if not months.

– Storm-Surge Impact: A destructive storm surge accompanied the eye coming ashore Friday, and coastal flooding may persist through multiple high-tide cycles into this weekend. The next high tide for Wilmington and Hatteras will be early this afternoon.

Significant beach erosion is also likely on the southeastern U.S. coast. Elevated water levels may persist for some time after landfall in areas where onshore winds persist.

(MAPS: NHC Potential Peak Storm Surge Inundation Interactive Maps)

Here are the latest storm-surge inundation forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at high tide:

– Along the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo and Bay rivers: 3 to 5 feet
– Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, North Carolina: 2 to 4 feet
– Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, North Carolina: 3 to 5 feet
– Myrtle Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina: 2 to 4 feet

These water levels will be on top of already high tides caused by the new moon.

Battering waves will ride atop the storm surge, inflicting more damage to structures near the water as the hurricane arrives.

– Wind Impact: Tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) are expected to continue across much of eastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through Saturday.

Numerous downed trees and long-lasting power outages are expected.

– Tornadoes: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern and southeastern North Carolina on Saturday. These tornadoes should be weak and short-lived but could add to damage caused by rainfall or straight-line hurricane winds.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for portions of southern North Carolina through 7 a.m. EDT.

Florence’s Storm Reports

Florence made landfall near Wrightsville, North Carolina, at 7:15 a.m. EDT with maximum sustained winds around 90 mph.

Wind Reports

Wind gusts reached as high as 106 mph at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, late Thursday evening while a 105-mph gust was reported at Fort Macon, North Carolina.

Friday morning, Wilmington, North Carolina, recorded a wind gust to 105 mph, the second strongest wind on record here. A wind gust to 100 mph was reported at Cape Fear, North Carolina earlier Friday and a buoy about 50 miles to the east of the center of Florence’s eye reported a wind gust to 112 mph.

Winds were gusting as high as 99 mph at Fort Macon, North Carolina and sustained winds are blowing at 73 mph early Friday.

Sustained winds of 79 mph were reported in Davis, North Carolina, while a 77-mph sustained wind was recorded at Fort Macon, North Carolina.

A gust of 72 mph was reported at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina Friday evening.

Water Reports

Newport, North Carolina, has reported 23.75 inches of rainfall, while Morehead City, North Carolina, has recorded 23.04 inches as of early Saturday. Numerous locations have received more than a foot of rainfall so far and the rain continues to fall.

Overwash of the dunes at the “S” curves on Highway 12 near Rodanthe in the Outer Banks began on Thursday.

On Thursday night, a storm surge of 10 feet above normal levels was reported by the National Weather Service office in Morehead City, North Carolina, at the Cherry Branch Ferry Terminal on the Neuse River, courtesy of the North Carolina Department of Transportation.

A gauge at Oriental, North Carolina, on the Neuse River recorded a water height of about 6 feet above normal tide levels late Thursday.

(MORE: North Carolina Meteorologists Forced Off-Air During Broadcast By Florence Flooding)

A record tide level was set at Beaufort, North Carolina, very early Friday, topping levels seen during Hazel (1954) and Floyd (1999), among others, with a reading of 7.28 feet.

(MORE: Florence Breaks Surge Records in Two Cities)

Water levels remain elevated in Pamlico Sound in North Carolina Friday evening and a gauge in Emerald Isle recorded a 7.0-foot surge Friday morning. A 10.1-foot storm surge was recorded very early Friday in New Bern.

Florence helped push water up against the coast as far north as the Chesapeake Bay Friday evening. Minor flooding has been reported in Maryland, which reported water levels 2.7 feet above normal.

Florence’s History

Tropical Depression Six formed late on Aug. 31, then was named Tropical Storm Florence the next day in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean.

On Sept. 5, Florence became a Category 4 hurricane after rapidly intensifying over the open Atlantic Ocean.

Wind shear then weakened Florence back to a tropical storm late on Sept. 6.

Florence underwent rapid intensification a second time Sunday into Monday, when its winds jumped up from 75 mph to 130 mph in just 25 hours ending 12 p.m. EDT Monday.

Source: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-09-14-hurricane-florence-forecast-north-carolina-south-carolina-southeast

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