A record month of North Korean missile testing in January highlighted failures of Mr. Moon’s efforts to engineer a breakthrough as his term ends in May, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has suggested he could order new nuclear tests or intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches for the first time since 2017.

“If North Korea’s series of missile launches goes as far as scrapping a moratorium on long-range missile tests, the Korean Peninsula may instantly fall back into the state of crisis we faced five years ago,” Mr. Moon said in a written interview with media in Seoul scheduled for publication on Thursday.

“Preventing such a crisis through persistent dialogue and diplomacy will be the task that political leaders in the countries concerned must fulfil together,” he added.

Mr. Moon had expressed concern that the series of missile tests was so close to the March 9 presidential election in South Korea, where the candidate from Mr. Moon’s Democratic Party is in a tight race with a conservative opponent.

Mr. Moon admitted he appears to have run out of time, saying it is unlikely a last-minute summit with Mr. Kim or the adoption of his proposal for a declaration ending the 1950-1953 Korean War would happen before he leaves office.

Still, he said the United States and South Korea have agreed on the text of the declaration, and that a summit between Mr. Kim and US President Joseph R. Biden “is just a matter of time” if all sides wish to avoid a crisis.

“Since dialogue is the only way to resolve problems, a meeting between President Biden and Chairman Kim is expected to take place eventually,” he said.

Mr. Moon has pushed for a formal end to the Korean War to replace the armistice that stopped the fighting but left it and the US-led U.N. Command still technically at war.

“I would at least like to make conditions ripe for an end-of-war declaration and pass that on to the next administration,” he said.

Mr. Moon said his most rewarding achievement was helping “shift the direction toward dialogue and diplomacy rather than military confrontation.”

The biggest regret of his term, however, is the failure of the US-North Korea summit in Hanoi, he said, where Kim and then-US President Donald Trump walked away with no agreements on reducing North Korea’s nuclear weapons or missiles in return for easing international sanctions.

“It is very regrettable that the summit ended in ‘no deal’ when the continuation of dialogue should have been ensured at least,” he said, arguing that a smaller, phased deal should still have been pursued when it became clear that a “big deal” was out of reach.

“Still now, if they learn from that experience and put their heads together to discuss mutually acceptable, realistic measures… I believe there will be ample opportunities to find a solution,” he added.

In a phone call with his US and Japanese counterparts on Thursday, South Korean Defense Minister Suh Wook said the recent launches posed a “direct and serious threat”, and vowed to bolster response capabilities based on the US alliance.

Mr. Biden’s administration has said it is willing to meet the North Koreans any time without preconditions, but Pyongyang says it will not resume negotiations unless Washington and Seoul drop “hostile policies” such as military drills, sanctions, and arms buildups.

Despite the stalled talks and increase in tensions, Mr. Moon says “necessary communication” with Mr. Kim has continued, and he doesn’t think Mr. Biden has returned to the “strategic patience” policies of the Obama administration because he continues to make practical efforts to resume dialogue.

“We cannot afford to give up this task,” he said. — Reuters

Source: https://www.bworldonline.com/new-north-korea-nuclear-icbm-testing-would-trigger-instant-crisis-moon/

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“The government will pursue normalization of inter-Korean relations and an irreversible path to peace until the end,” Moon said in his final New Year’s address before his five-year term ends in May. “I hope efforts for dialogue will continue in the next administration too.”

In his own address on New Year’s Eve, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un made no mention of Moon’s calls for a declaration officially ending the 1950-1953 Korean War, or of stalled denuclearization talks with the United States.

Moon held multiple summits with Kim, including once in Pyongyang, during a flurry of negotiations in 2018 and 2019, before talks stalled amid disagreements over international demands that the North surrender its arsenal of nuclear weapons, and Pyongyang’s call for Washington and Seoul to ease sanctions and drop other “hostile policies.”

Moon is pushing an “end of war declaration” as a way to jumpstart those stalled negotiations and his administration has hinted at backchannel discussions.

But North Korea has not publicly responded to the latest push, and the United States has said it supports the idea but may disagree with the South over its timing.

“It is true that there is still a long way to go,” Moon acknowledged, but argued that if inter-Korean relations improve, the international community will follow.

Moon said his outreach to North Korea had been enabled by a large military buildup that helped make South Korea safer.

“Peace is possible on strong security,” he said.

The COVID-19 pandemic overshadowed the standoff with North Korea, as Pyongyang put the country into an unprecedented lockdown and Moon faced domestic pressure to tamp down the first major coronavirus outbreak outside of China in early 2020.

Since then, South Korea used aggressive tracking and tracing, as well as social distancing rules and a belated but thorough vaccination campaign to keep overall cases and deaths relatively low by global standards.

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Source: https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/01/north-korea-has-big-plans-for-its-special-operations-forces-biggest-on-earth/

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Seoul, South Korea (CNN) Both North and South Korea tested ballistic missiles on Wednesday, ratcheting up tensions exponentially in what was already one of the most volatile regions on the planet.

The post Both North and South Korea fire ballistic missiles as tensions rise on peninsula first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

Seoul is being cautious while not taking changes given North Korea’s recent threats.

In response to North Korea blowing up an inter-Korean liaison building on Tuesday, South Korea’s military deployed tanks and other heavy equipped to the border and warned they would “strongly respond” if necessary. Since the beginning of June, North Korea has made a number of provocative threats including severing all contact with South Korea, and now South Korean President Moon Jae-in has shown a robust readiness to deter any further offensive action from the North.

“The government expresses strong regret over North Korea’s unilateral detonation of the inter-Korean liaison office building,” South Korea’s deputy director of the national security office, Kim You-geun told western media. “We sternly warn that we will strongly respond to it if North Korea takes any action.”

Seoul had spent $8.6 million to refurbish the joint liaison office, which had been used to help the two sides communicate even as North and South Korea have technically remained at a state of war since 1950.

After this latest setback, South Korea’s military has reportedly deployed tanks near the demilitarized zone—which stretches across the entire peninsula. While the exact type of tanks and armored vehicles—or even the total numbers—haven’t been stated, it is likely that these could include the domestically-produced K2 Black Panther, which is built and sold by Hyundai Rotem, an affiliate of the Hyundai Motor Group.

The Korean armored vehicles have been considered to rival other western-produced main battle tanks (MBT) and have been exported to partner nations including Poland. The tank, which has a crew of three including the commander, gunner, and driver, is equipped with an auto-target detection and tracking system, as well as a hunter-killer function.

Its main armament is a 120mm L/55 smoothbore gun with automatic loader, which ensures the loading of projectiles even when the tank is moving on uneven surfaces. It has a reported rate of fire of about 10 rounds per minute. Secondary armament of the K2 includes a 12.7 heavy machine gun and a 7.62mm machine gun.

The K2 MBT has a nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) protection system, while it is fitted with Composite Amor and Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA). The tanks active protection system was designed to address anti-tank rockets and missiles and includes soft and hard-kill systems. In addition, the tank’s compartment is equipped with a blow-off panel that is meant to protect the crew from the explosion of ammunition.

Mass production of the Black Panther began in 2013 and the first K2s were deployed with the Republic of South Korea’s military in June 2014. Currently, South Korea fields about 100 of the K2 tanks, while 106 are in production with an additional 54 planned.

While that would seem to be a reasonable amount of tanks for a nation the size of South Korea, given the political situation the country’s military still has a large force of K1A2 MBTs as well—and earlier this year the Ministry of National Defense (MND) announced plans to further improve the performance of those tanks. Those updates and improvements of the domestically-built tank began in 2014 and had been scheduled to continue until 2026.

South Korea operates 480 K1A2 MBTs, which were also built by Hyundai Rotem. Those tanks are armed with a 120mm, KM256 Smoothbore (L44) along with a coaxial 7.62mm machine, and a 7.62mm MG and .50-caliber MG on the top of the turret.

In addition to its domestically-built tanks, South Korea also operates more advanced Russian tanks than does the North Korean military. As The National Interest previously reported, “This situation came about in the 1990s after Russia inherited a $1.5 billion debt to South Korea. A deal was made: Russia would give many items of then top-of-the-line military equipment, in exchange for South Korea canceling 50 percent of Russia’s debt. Interestingly, this included the T-80U Main Battle Tank.”

While the T-80U lags behind the Korean-made tanks and has been kept in a relatively stock configuration, it was the most advanced tank on the Korean Peninsula when it first arrived. The 33 T-80U and two T-80UK tanks are being phased out—but should actual fighting commence on the peninsula it is likely those tanks will be sent to the front line to join the more modern South Korean built MBTs.

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites. He is the author of several books on military headgear including A Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com.

Image: Reuters

Source: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/south-korea-sends-tanks-and-troops-dmz-162966

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“Citizens of Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, stay strong. We can fully overcome this COVID-19 and we will.”

President Moon Jae-in visited the southeastern city of Daegu, which has become a hotbed of coronavirus cases in South Korea.

Flanked by his health minister and other Cabinet members, President Moon held an emergency meeting with the mayor of Daegu and other key officials, and promised victory against COVID-19.

“Pooling national capabilities, the government will win the fight against the virus with Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province. The government has dispatched military and police personnel as well as civilian medical staff to activate a pan-national support system.”

Moon stationed Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun in the city to lead the quarantine operations there.

“What matters is time and speed. We must create a decisive turning point in the rising trend of infections. Starting from this evening, the prime minister will be stationed here to take the lead in field efforts as the head of the central disaster relief headquarters.”

Moon also attempted to resolve misunderstandings stemming from the use of the Korean word for “containment” during an earlier meeting between presidential, government and ruling party officials, which led people to suspect the government might lock down the city of Daegu.

While agreeing to take “maximum containment” steps in the virus-stricken southeastern cluster, the three groups also decided to create an extra budget for tackling COVID-19.

The budget will be used to support Daegu and the surrounding areas as well as small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs), small business owners and exporters who have been hit hard by the outbreak.

On Friday, Finance Minister Hong Nam-ki announced that the South Korean government will submit to the National Assembly in the following week an extra budget bill totaling more than six-point-two trillion won needed to tackle the coronavirus outbreak.

Hong said the extra budget will be greater than that during the 2015 MERS outbreak, which totaled six-point-two trillion won.

When asked about the extra budget’s impact on the country’s financial soundness, Hong said issuing deficit-covering bonds may be necessary, further expanding sovereign debt.

Later on Friday, President Moon Jae-in met with the chairs of the four ruling and opposition parties at the National Assembly and called for the swift parliamentary passage of the supplementary budget plan.

Moon told the political leaders that he came to seek nonpartisan cooperation to contain the virus, which he described as a grave threat to both public safety and the economy.

Noting the outbreak was already starting to take a significant toll, he called on them to help prevent further economic damage. The president cited his own experience of leading efforts to pass an extra budget bill during the 2015 MERS outbreak as the former leader of the New Politics Alliance for Democracy, the predecessor of ruling Democratic Party (DP).

With regard to current countermeasures, President Moon said his administration has been utilizing all available resources to contain the disease, while also recognizing active help and support from the public and political circles.

He assured the country will overcome the virus outbreak by working together.

Source: http://world.kbs.co.kr/service/contents_view.htm?lang=e&menu_cate=issues&id=&board_seq=380519&page=1&board_code=

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South Korea has raised its coronavirus alert to the “highest level” as confirmed case numbers keep rising.

President Moon Jae-in said the country faced “a grave turning point”, and the next few days would be crucial in the battle to contain the outbreak.

Six people have died from the virus in South Korea and more than 600 have been infected.

Meanwhile, Italy and Iran have announced steps to try to contain worrying outbreaks of the virus.

In Italy, strict quarantine restrictions are in force in two northern “hotspot” regions close to Milan and Venice.

Around 50,000 people cannot enter or leave several towns in Veneto and Lombardy for the next two weeks without special permission. Even outside the zone, many businesses and schools have suspended activities, and sporting events have been canceled including several top-flight football matches.

• South Korean sect identified as coronavirus hotbed
• What you need to know about the virus
• A visual guide to the outbreak
• Pregnant nurse ‘propaganda’ sparks backlash

Amid the growing restrictions, the last two days of the Venice Carnival, on Monday and Tuesday, were canceled.

Italy has seen two deaths and the number of confirmed cases has risen to more than 100 – 89 of them in Lombardy.

“The contagiousness of this virus is very strong and pretty virulent,” said Lombardy’s health chief, Giulio Gallera.

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Iran’s outbreak of coronavirus has significantly worsened, with the death toll rising to eight on Sunday. The government has acknowledged 43 confirmed cases although officials have warned the virus may have spread to “all cities”.

Schools, universities and cultural centres across 14 Iranian provinces have been closed from Sunday.

The new strain of coronavirus, which originated last year in Hubei province in China, causes a respiratory disease called Covid-19. China has seen more than 76,000 infections and 2,442 deaths.

On Sunday, China’s President Xi Jinping described the outbreak as the “largest public health emergency” in the country’s recent history.

He acknowledged “shortcomings” in China’s response and said lessons must be learned.

World edges closer to coronavirus pandemic

Analysis by Fergus Walsh, medical correspondent

The combined situation in South Korea, Iran, and Italy points to the early stages of pandemic. This means a global outbreak, with the coronavirus spreading in the community in multiple parts of the world.

In each of these countries, we are seeing the spread of the virus with no connection to China. The lockdown efforts in Italy mirror those that have happened in China.

The situation in Iran is especially worrying because the health authorities have reportedly said the virus has spread to multiple cities, and it appears the first case in Lebanon is linked to a traveller from Iran.

If we have a pandemic, it will still be important to limit the speed of the spread of the virus. If countries could hold it somewhat at bay until the end of winter, there is a hope that warmer temperatures will reduce the time the virus can survive in the air, as we see with seasonal flu. But this may not be certain.

What’s happening in South Korea?

On Sunday, health officials revealed a further leap in the number of coronavirus cases with a cluster of infections linked to a hospital and to a religious group near the south-eastern city of Daegu.

The sixth death was confirmed at the Daenam Hospital, in Cheongdo, which treats the elderly and people with mental health issues. The hospital has seen more than 110 people infected including nine medical staff.

South Korea has seen the largest number of confirmed cases after China. An outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan has also seen more than 600 cases.

“The Covid-19 incident faces a grave turning point,” President Moon said following a meeting with ministers and experts.

“The next few days will be crucial. The government will raise the alert level to the highest level of ‘grave’ according to experts’ recommendations and drastically strengthen our response system.”

Of the 169 new cases announced in South Korea on Sunday, 95 of them are linked to a Christian sect in Daegu called the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said. The total number of cases connected to the church stands at 329.

In a video statement, a church spokesman expressed “deep regret” that many of its followers and citizens of South Korea had been infected. The spokesman added that the church had advised about 250,000 members to minimize their outside contact and take precautions.

What is the Shincheonji?

Shincheonji founder Lee Man-hee says he is “the promised pastor” -Getty Images

• Religious organization founded in 1984 by South Korean national Lee Man-hee
• Lee, now in his 80s, describes himself as “the promised pastor” mentioned in the Bible
• Followers are taught to believe that Lee is the second coming of Jesus Christ
• Shincheonji is the abbreviation from Korean of “New Heaven and New Earth”
• Reportedly has more than 120,000 members around the world
• Accused of being a cult, and has been involved in controversies in several countries

In other developments:

• Israel refused to allow non-Israelis to disembark from a Korean Air plane at Ben-Gurion Airport on Saturday. It had announced a ban on South Koreans and Japanese visitors, sparking an official protest from Seoul
• Dozens of evacuees from the Diamond Princess cruise ship have begun their two-week quarantine in the UK

What’s the wider situation?

The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has expressed concern at the number of new cases with no clear link to China or other confirmed cases.

In a briefing to the African Union on Saturday, he said the greatest concern now was countries with weaker health systems, particularly in Africa.

Dr. Tedros said the WHO was working with African governments to train thousands of health workers and to provide equipment to identify and treat infected people.

“Our biggest concern continues to be the potential for Covid-19 to spread in countries with weaker health systems,” he said. “We are working hard to prepare countries in Africa for the potential arrival of the virus.”

Dr. Tedros said some countries, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, were using experience gained from testing for the Ebola virus to test for the new coronavirus.

“This is a great example of how investing in health systems can pay dividends for health security,” he added.

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51603251

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Donald Trump has brushed off North Korea’s warning of a “Christmas gift”, saying the United States would “deal with it very successfully” and that perhaps it would be a “nice present”.

The US president added: “Maybe it’s a present where he sends me a beautiful vase.”

Kim Jong Un is demanding sanctions relief by the end of the year

The US has imposed tough sanctions, insisting North Korea ends all nuclear activity before they can be lifted.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had threatened to take unspecified action if sanctions relief is not forthcoming by the end of the year.

The North has said that what “Christmas gift” it gives the United States depends on Washington’s actions.

Meanwhile, leaders from China, Japan, and South Korea have reiterated their commitment to ending North Korea’s nuclear and missile programmes at a trilateral summit.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the three agreed that “dialogue and consultation is the only effective way to solve the issues of the Korea Peninsula”.

“We three countries are willing to work together with the international community to solve the issue of the Korea Peninsula in a political way,” Mr. Li said at a joint news conference following the meeting.

Mr. Li, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and South Korean President Moon Jae-in also said they discussed furthering regional co-operation on the economy, the environment, and people-to-people exchanges.

“We all advocate for free trade and promote economic integration. China holds that safeguarding free trade benefits the protection of multilateralism, of world peace,” Mr. Li said.

In his comments, Mr. Moon said the sides agreed to support efforts to restart talks between Washington and Pyongyang so that “denuclearisation and peace… could actually advance”.

Mr. Abe echoed that stance in his remarks, criticizing North Korean missile launches as violating UN resolutions and seriously threatening regional security.

“For that purpose, it was confirmed that full implementation of UN Security Council resolutions remains important, and we need to maintain the momentum of the US-North Korea process,” Mr. Abe said.

Although China is Pyongyang’s most important source of investment, diplomatic support, and economic aid, it has shown little success in convincing Mr. Kim’s government to abandon its nuclear arsenal.

Source: https://news.sky.com/story/well-deal-with-it-donald-trump-brushes-off-kim-jong-uns-threat-of-christmas-gift-11894827

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BEIJING (REUTERS) – The leaders of Japan and South Korea will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Monday (Dec 23), amid heightened concern that North Korea may be about to return to confrontation with Washington.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will meet Mr. Xi separately before going to the south-western city of Chengdu for a trilateral meeting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang.

Though various economic matters will also be on the agenda – as well as tensions between Seoul and Tokyo – North Korea appears likely to dominate the agenda.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un held a meeting of top military officials to discuss boosting the country’s military capability, state news agency reported on Sunday.

North Korea has set a year-end deadline for the United States to change what it says is a policy of hostility amid a stalemate in efforts to make progress on their pledge to end the North’s nuclear programme and establish lasting peace.

Mr. Kim and US President Donald Trump have met three times since June 2018, but there has been no substantive progress in dialogue while the North demanded crushing international sanctions be lifted first.

On Saturday, the state media said the US would “pay dearly” for taking issue with the North’s human rights record, and said Washington’s “malicious words” would only aggravate tensions on the Korean peninsula.

US special envoy for North Korea Stephen Biegun met two senior Chinese diplomats during his two-day visit to Beijing last week, following similar meetings in South Korea and Japan days earlier, as diplomats made last-ditch attempts to prevent a new confrontation.

Beijing, jointly with Russia, proposed last week that the United Nations Security Council lift some sanctions in what it calls an attempt to break the current deadlock and seek to build support.

But it is unclear whether Beijing can convince Seoul and Tokyo to break ranks from Washington, which has made its opposition clear and can veto any resolution.

Though South Korea sees China as instrumental in reviving negotiations, it has so far sidestepped questions on whether it supports the new proposal by Beijing and Moscow. Japan, which has historically been a staunch supporter of sanctions against North Korea, has also refrained from commenting on the proposal.

Source: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinese-president-xi-jinping-to-meet-japan-south-korea-leaders-as-north-korea

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SEOUL, South Korea—South Korean President Moon Jae-in offered an olive branch to Japan to end an ongoing trade dispute Thursday, saying Seoul will “gladly join hands” if Tokyo wants to talk.

Moon in a nationally televised speech also downplayed the threat posed by North Korea’s recent short-range ballistic launches and expressed hope that Washington and Pyongyang would soon resume nuclear negotiations.

“If a country weaponizes a sector where it has a comparative advantage, the order of peaceful free trade inevitably suffers. A country that accomplished growth first must not kick the ladder away while others are following in its footsteps,” Moon said in reference to Japan.

“If Japan better late than never chooses the path of dialogue and cooperation, we will gladly join hands,” he said.

Moon’s speech at a ceremony marking the 74th anniversary of Korea’s liberation from Japanese rule at the end of World War II came amid heightened public anger and diplomatic fallout over Tokyo’s recent moves to impose trade curbs on South Korea.

Seoul has accused Tokyo of weaponizing trade to target its export-dependent economy and retaliate against South Korean court rulings calling for Japanese companies to offer reparations to South Koreans forced into labor during World War II. Tokyo’s measures struck a nerve in South Korea, where many still harbor resentment over Japan’s ruthless colonial rule from 1910 to 1945.

After threatening stern countermeasures and declaring that South Korea would “never lose” to Japan again, Moon has taken a more conciliatory tone over the past week as there was relief in Seoul that the impact of Japan’s trade measures might not be as bad as initially thought.

There have also been concerns that the government’s nationalistic calls for unity were allowing public anger toward Japan to reach dangerous levels.

Nevertheless, tens of thousands of people were expected join anti-Japan protests planned for Thursday, including an evening candlelit vigil near Seoul’s presidential palace.

Thousands of protesters dressed in raincoats marched in heavy rain toward the Japanese Embassy in Seoul. They carried signs that said “Apologize for War Crimes” and “Compensate Forced Laborers.”

“I have a lot that I want to say, but I can’t,” said an emotional Lee Chun-sik, 95, the only survivor among four plaintiffs who won a landmark compensation case last October against Japan’s Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp., decades after being forced to work at the company’s steel mills during World War II.

Lee thanked the marchers for taking part.

The trade dispute comes as South Korea’s relations with North Korea worsen. Pyongyang has been ignoring Seoul’s calls for dialogue and in recent weeks test-fired a slew of new short-range weapons that potentially threaten the South.

Experts say the North’s recent launches are aimed at building leverage for nuclear talks with the United States, and pressuring Seoul to coax major concessions from Washington on its behalf.

“In spite of a series of worrying actions taken by North Korea recently, the momentum for dialogue remains unshaken,” Moon said.

He called for new negotiations between the Koreas and the U.S. “at the earliest possible date.”

By Associated Press reporter Kim Tong-Hyung

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Source: https://www.theepochtimes.com/south-koreas-moon-calls-for-talks-to-end-trade-dispute-with-japan_3043075.html

[Disclaimer]

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AFP Contributor

SEOUL—The defection on Thursday of a North Korean soldier weaving his way across the DMZ is the latest in an accumulation of incidents putting not only the Korean Peninsula but much of East Asia on the razor’s edge of a crisis out of anyone’s ability to control.

The soldier, spotted by thermal imaging as he made his way across the heavily mined demilitarized zone, presumably is providing testimony about the problems of morale and hunger afflicting tens of thousands of North Korean troops within 20 miles of the line.

“As with the outbreak of World War I, it takes only one short-sighted or highly biased leader taking one needless gamble, or misconceiving just one action by the other side, to put the gears of war in motion.”

— Van Jackson, ‘On the Brink: Trump, Kim and the Threat of Nuclear War’

These are the facts about his country and especially the military that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un does not want known. And it’s to stave off simmering discontent exacerbated by sanctions and poor crops that Kim Jong Un is testing missiles and rocket systems—prime examples of threats that could send the region hurtling toward disaster, the United States along with it.

You may recall that President Donald Trump used to laud a supposed end to Pyongyang’s missile tests as a trumph for his weird personal diplomacy love-in with Kim. When new tests started, Trump declared the North Koreans “really haven’t tested missiles other than, you know, smaller ones.” When more tests happened last week, Trump said they were “short-range missiles, and many people have those missiles.” And Wednesday Kim sent some more of them aloft.

In fact, Kim has confirmed the tests are far from routine. The more they test, the more dangerous the standoff and no amount of happy talk can wish that away

Kim himself guided the latest test-firing of what Pyongyang’s Korean Central News Agency called “a newly developed large-caliber multiple launch guided rocket system.” That would suggest they have advanced their technical ability to strike anywhere in South Korea, notably the sprawling new American base, Camp Humphreys, 40 miles southeast of Seoul.

“The tactical data and technical characteristics of the new-type large-caliber guided ordnance rocket,” said KCNA in typically convoluted North Korean syntax, “reached the numerical values of its design, and verified the combat effectiveness of the overall system.”

Countering Trump’s dismissal of the importance of North Korean testing, Kim’s news agency continued in NorKspeak. It said the test-firing “would be an inescapable distress to the forces becoming a fat target of the weapon.”

Those comments coincided with the arrival in Bangkok of U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and nuclear negotiator Stephen Biegun for an annual Asian regional forum at which Pompeo hopes to see North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho on the sidelines, but North Korea has said pointedly that Ri won’t be there.

“In a game of dare and double-dare, North Korean tests show the fragility of the North-South diplomacy and the perils of wishful thinking.”
In any case, Pompeo does not have to talk to Ri to know the test-firing Wednesday was a warning: Do not stage even small-scale exercises in South Korea this month, Kim is telling Washington and Seoul. And please lift those sanctions—or we may not cooperate on talks that Pompeo says are seriously in the works.

In a game of dare and double-dare, North Korean tests show the fragility of the North-South diplomacy and the perils of wishful thinking: Trump’s friend Kim isn’t going to have these missiles armed with real warheads, primed to fire at live targets, is he? Can’t we shrug off his latest shots as indeed “solemn warnings” against “war mongers” while the U.S. and South Korea gear up for small-scale, computer-driven military exercises?

Gingerly, South Korea’s National Security Council, avoiding outright condemnation, expressed “strong concerns” about tests that would have “a negative impact.” That was enough for South Korea’s defense minister, Jeong Kyeong-doo, to include North Korea again “in the concept of an enemy,” much though the South’s leftist president, Moon Jae-in, objects to applying the E-word to his northern neighbor.

The latest North Korean salvo didn’t go too far, about 150 miles off the North’s east coast—shorter range than the two missiles fired a week ago but once again just fine for Camp Humphreys, the largest U.S. base on foreign soil, where 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed

“Recent missiles are guided short-range at a lower altitude,” says Choi Jin-wook, former director of the Korea Institute of National Unification. They’re “more accurate and hard to be intercepted”—even by PAC-3, the most advanced surface-to-air counter-missile system.

It’s not just those upcoming war games that are upsetting the North Koreans. They also hate the prospect of the South Korean air force flying the latest F-35 stealth aircraft. With the South due to acquire 40 of them from the U.S. in the next two years, the North’s state press agency says, “We have no other choice but to develop and test the special armaments to completely destroy the lethal weapons reinforced in South Korea.”

“What if a South Korean plane hit a Russian bomber with one of those warning shots?”

The North Korean strategy is basic. “I believe North Korea is getting very frustrated with the U.S. and wants to pressure Mr. Trump,” says Choi. At the same time, considering Moon’s eagerness for reconciliation with the North, “South Korea is an easy hostage” that can be used “to pressure Washington.”

How better to intimidate the South Koreans? While “talking loudly about reconciliation and cooperation” the South Koreans go on “opening a gate to invading the north,” declared the KCNA. In this combustible mix, experts see tensions worsening as North Korea presses Moon to compromise and the danger arises of an “accident” or unscripted incident.

In an uncertain atmosphere, who knows what spark might ignite a conflagration?

“As with the outbreak of World War I,” writes Van Jackson in On the Brink: Trump, Kim and the Threat of Nuclear War, “it takes only one short-sighted or highly biased leader taking one needless gamble, or misconceiving just one action by the other side, to put the gears of war in motion.”

Inexorably, those gears are grinding. Trump may try to soothe those who doubt Kim Jong Un’s intentions, but one of the two shots fired last week was not exactly short-range as he contended. It soared more than 400 miles—plenty far enough to hit key targets in Japan—on a course that made it look like a model of a Russian Iskander which is capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads.

Despite “the most optimistic of projections,” writes Jackson, “policymakers and the public must remain attentive to the risks of nuclear war.”

And nukes are not the only imminent menace. Before Kim pressed the button on those missiles last week, South Korean warplanes, F15s and F16s, fired flares and 300 warning shots at a Russian A50 early warning and control aircraft reconnoitering over South Korean waters also claimed by Japan.

That was the first time Seoul’s forces have fired in the direction of a foreign plane, begging the question, what would it take for overflights and intrusions to turn into bloody shootouts?

The same day, two Chinese H6 bombers and two Russian TU 95 bombers flew in tandem around South Korea’s KADIZ, Korean Air Defense Identification Zone, the much larger area in which planes are free to fly while transponders relay where they are to the South Koreans.

What were the Chinese and Russians trying to prove? Was the dual mission timed for National Security Adviser John Bolton’s visit to Korea and Japan? Or were they out to show who’s boss over South Korea, which is now torn between the need for its military commanders to hone their computer skills in war games with the Americans and the desire of Moon to appease a nuclear-armed North?

Maybe China’s President Xi Jinping is still sore about Moon accepting THAAD, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense monster run by American soldiers way south of Seoul. The Russians don’t like THAAD either. Could it be they sent those planes around the periphery of South Korea to make that point? They both think THAAD is capable of getting into their own computer systems even though the Americans say its only mission is to shoot down high-flying North Korean missiles in a real war.

The question assumes urgency as South Korean and U.S. officials say they’ll definitely go ahead with those joint exercises. Missile tests, on top of Chinese and Russian overflights, raise the specter of a doomsday scenario even as South Korea tries to stay on friendly terms with China as well as Russia, not to mention North Korea in an era of rapprochement.

Then there’s the great power to the east, Japan, with which Korea is in an ugly dispute over Japanese reluctance to pay still more compensation to workers forced to serve as slave labor in Japanese factories in World War II.

The Japanese often send planes in hot pursuit of Chinese aircraft, scaring them away from the Senkaku Islands, held by Japan but claimed by China, which calls them Diaoyu. And the Japanese are not sending warplanes over disputed Korean waters, not even around Dokdo, those enormous twin rocks that Japan calls Takeshima and which it claims. But those outcrops are potential flashpoints defended by 50 lonely South Korean policemen way out there in the Sea of Japan, known to Koreans as the East Sea.

“Only weeks ago, the DMZ seemed a symbol of progress toward peace as Trump stepped across. Now we see a North Korean soldier coming the other way through a minefield.”

What if, accidentally, a Japanese plane veered off course over Dokdo and got shot at? Koreans would undoubtedly cheer if the plane were hit, such is the heightened nationalist ire after Japan vindictively cut off export of essential chemicals needed for the semiconductors that are the backbone of the South Korean economy.

And what if a South Korean plane hit a Russian bomber with one of those warning shots? Or the Chinese got really mad about the Americans spying on them via THAAD and sent warplanes over South Korean territory?

And what about the new submarine Kim Jong Un was just inspecting? Defense officials say it’s built to hold three submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Ok, he’s not ordering the firing of anything bearing a warhead—yet—but what if?

Meanwhile, we are watching the steady deterioration of the U.S.-South Korean alliance. Most U.S. troops stay inside the high barbed-wire surrounding Camp Humphreys as policy-makers quake over provoking anti-American protests or otherwise upsetting the Moon government.

But what if an accident did happen and U.S. forces fanned into the countryside, not on war games but for real?

David Straub, a retired senior U.S. diplomat with years of experience in Seoul, sees “the much bigger concern” as “the continued undermining of the U.S.-South Korea alliance and de facto acceptance of North Korea as a nuclear weapons state.” That result, he believes, “would not only be terrible in itself, it would likely contribute to much greater instability in regional and even global affairs.”

“I’m not terribly worried about an accidental outbreak of major hostilities,” says Straub. “None of the six countries concerned wants all-out conflict.”

The North “has continued to engage in bloody provocations” since the Korean War, he says, but “it’s hard to imagine what North Korea would have to do to prompt South Korea’s Moon administration to retaliate.” And, “although President Trump used to talk big about what he would do to Pyongyang, it has become evident that it was all bluff and bluster.”

Let’s hope. But it’s those little things—an intrusion here, an accident there—that might upset the carefully wrought equilibrium.

Only weeks ago, the DMZ seemed a symbol of progress toward peace as Trump stepped across into North Korea with his buddy Kim Jong Un. Now we see a North Korean soldier coming the other way through a minefield.

We should make no mistake. We’re at least as close to the razor’s edge of war as to the brink of peace.

Source: https://www.thedailybeast.com/after-north-korea-missile-launches-east-asia-is-on-the-razors-edge

The post East Asia Is on the Razor’s Edge After North Korea Missile Launches first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.