The authoritarian, Islamist leader of the Republic of Turkey delivered a shot in the arm to embattled Russian tyrant Vladimir Putin this week, by threatening to block the accession of Finland and Sweden to the NATO military alliance.

Some observers believe Russian influence with Ankara could be one of the factors behind Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s declaration regarding the two Nordic nations, and not just Turkish complaints against them being a kind of haven for Kurdish refugees, which it views as terrorists.

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine Turkey has not sanctioned Russia, unlike most NATO members who have. It has reportedly become a safe haven for Russian oligarch money and it has already thumbed its nose up to the U.S. when it purchased Russia S-400 air missile defense system which led to U.S. sanctions in 2020.

RUSSIAN S-400 DEFENSE SYSTEMS ARRIVE IN TURKEY AFTER U.S. WARNS OF SANCTIONS

U.S. officials raised alarm bells that the S-400 deal with Russia could endanger NATO security and jeopardize American-Turkey intelligence sharing.

Marshall Billingslea, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a former assistant Secretary General of NATO, told Fox News Digital, “It is important to understand that Turkey is playing the same game today that it is always has played in the region with respect to Turkey taking stances that benefits its own interests and run counter to NATO’s.”

He continued that Ankara is an “independent actor and took stances that had benefits for the Russians,” Billingslea said. He cited one telling example when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and Turkey closed access to the Black Sea. The closure prevented U.S. naval vessels from aiding Georgia.

However, Turkey’s independence of action also means it delivered drones to Ukraine, the NATO expert noted. The Turks work “to benefit their interests,” he said.

Theodore Karasik, a fellow on Russian and Middle Eastern Affairs at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, told Fox News Digital that Turkey wants to “avoid being on Russia’s target list later.”

Erdogan recently announced the return of Syrian refugees living in Turkey back to their country, and Russia’s cooperation is necessary for this due to its strong presence in the Syrian Arab Republic, noted Karasik.

PUTIN LAYS OUT HIS DEMANDS FOR CEASEFIRE IN CALL WITH TURKEY’S PRESIDENT

The Turkish and Russian “struggle over shipping issues” could be an additional worry for Erdogan, said Karasik. If the Western powers sanction Russian vessels, Ankara could be confronted with demands to close the vital Dardanelles shipping route to Russia’s maritime industry,” he continued.

Karasik added that Erdogan is “using the Finnish and Swedish applications to garner favors from other countries so Turkey benefits in the end.”

Erdogan’s efforts to destabilize the NATO alliance gained traction after a segment of the Turkish military launched an unsuccessful coup against him in 2016.

TURKEY SENTENCES FORMER SOLDIERS TO LIFE OVER FAILED COUP ATTEMPT AGAINST ERDOGAN

Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Mehmet Yalinalp, who was dismissed from the military following the failed coup while he was serving as the head of NATO’s air command strategy in Germany, whose email was recently quoted in a book, titled “Erdogan Rising: A Warning To Europe,” by Hannah Lucinda-Smith, where he noted the change of views on NATO: “As the historical purge of thousands of military personnel takes a faster speed, I and my Turkish colleagues observe a considerable rise of ultra-nationalist, anti-western sentiments within our military and throughout our state departments.”

Yalinalp noted that new Turkish military personnel in NATO “have a radical mindset, some question the values of NATO and even hate Western organizations, while holding pro-Russia/China/Iran sentiments.”

Burak Bekdil is prominent Turkish political columnist who wrote for Hurriyet Daily News for 29 years, and is now a fellow for the Middle East Forum, told Fox News Digital : “I called Erdogan Putin’s man in NATO though there are nuances to my more ideological assessment. Erdogan feels at home comfort when he deals with authoritarian leaders like himself, instead of liberal democrats who remind him of Turkey’s widening democratic deficit.”

Bekdil, who was fired from Hurriyet Daily News in 2017, for writing critical articles about Turkey on a US news site, added that” There is also a transactional Erdogan who is programmed to use the West and its institutions, including NATO, where it’s useful and confronting them when that is useful. Despite the transaction-himself, Erdogan has been Putin’s man in NATO, too, for ideological reasons as well: His ideological raison d’etre is pillared on a rigid anti-West thinking.”

TURKEY RISKS ‘HISTORIC’ SWEDEN, FINLAND NATO BID BY PRIORITIZING POLITICAL AGENDA

Some commentators say enough is enough and Turkey should be kicked out of NATO. Daniel Pipes, the president of the Middle East Forum in Philadelphia, said recently, “I don’t think Turkey belongs in NATO. I’ve been saying this for a decade.

“It is time to expel Turkey from NATO. Let it go to Russia, let it go to China. Good riddance,” Pipes declared.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/turkey-russias-secret-weapon-inside-nato

The post Is Turkey Russia’s secret weapon inside NATO? first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 26, ARMENPRESS. Turkey’s plans to populate the territories of Nagorno Karabakh, which have come under the Azerbaijani control, with Syrians will not be accepted by both Russia and Iran. Russia would not allow it or will take anti-terrorist measures later, Expert on Turkish studies Ruben Melkonyan told Armenpress, commenting on the foreign and local media reports according to which Turkey is transferring Syrians to the territories of Nagorno Karabakh currently controlled by Azerbaijan.

The expert said these reports, even they are not coming from real facts, have a very serious potential of becoming a reality.

According to him, the issue should be viewed from two important domains. “The first one is that Turkey’s open participation to the recent war [in Karabakh] made us suppose that after the war as well Turkey will continue to keep its active presence in this matter. And it’s natural that Turkey will try to take some steps in its policy priorities. Secondly, we need to take into account that the demography policy or the demographic engineering has a very important place in Turkey’s policy. It is based on a state tradition and has a history of centuries. In the occupied territories Turkey is immediately starting the policy of neutralizing the further threats and creating additional threats for the enemy countries”, the expert said.

Melkonyan reminded that before the Armenian Genocide Turkey has populated various territories of historic Armenia with different Muslim nations which later played a role in the implementation of the Armenian Genocide. He said Turkey, by occupying several territories in Syria, is populating them with people faithful to it. According to the expert, Turkey is trying the same also in the territories of Artsakh which have come under the Azerbaijani control. “My analysis is based on the principles of the Turkish demographic policy, and these principles allow to claim that populating the occupied territories of Artsakh with people faithful to Turkey is very realistic”, he said.

Melkonyan is sure that some of these people will be terrorists with their families who can turn from a ‘peaceful civilian’ to an extreme terrorist at any moment, by participating in military or terrorist operations. “In other words, by populating that territories with that people, Turkey in fact is deploying a special division of the army in the face of terrorists and their families”, the expert on Turkish studies noted.

Asked why there is no wish to populate those territories with Azerbaijanis, Melkonyan said the question should be viewed in the context of expected public developments, complaints in Azerbaijan and we should understand whether Azerbaijan’s statement that the refugees want to move to Aghdam and other territories is true or is another myth.

Melkonyan also stated that Turkey’s such plans are not in the interests of Iran and Russia.

“Russia should not allow transfer of terrorists to that region which is closer to its borders. But if we look at the issue from political perspective, the presence of terrorists in this territory would allow Russia to take certain steps at any moment under the anti-terrorist war flag or other”, he said.

Ruben Melkonyan proposed to wait for developments and understand which priority will be more influential for Russia – the humanitarian one or the anti-terrorist one. The expert, however, believes that both Russia and Iran would not accept these steps and may take some actions either now or later. “Nevertheless, we need to understand that this issue is going to be one of the key points of the Russian-Turkish or Turkish-Iranian clash”, Ruben Melkonyan said.

Interview by Anna Grigoryan

Editing and Translating by Aneta Harutyunyan

Source: https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1035922.html

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Read more: BulgarianMilitary.com 24/7 – All about Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

“The downing of an Armenian SU-25 fighter from a Turkish F-16, according to the Armenian Defense Ministry, is said to complicate the situation, as Moscow is obliged to provide military assistance to Armenia under the Tashkent Treaty” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.

In parallel with Zakharova’s statement, Yerevan hastened to publish photos of the downed Turkish fighter jet, thus refuting Ankara’s claims that this was not true. As we announced yesterday, Yerevan is currently considering whether to take advantage of the activation of Article 4 of the CSTO.

At the same time, Azerbaijan is playing a dangerous game, trying to worsen the situation by sharing information that Turkish F-16s shot down not one but two Armenian fighters.

The information was provided today by the assistant to the President of Azerbaijan Hikmet Hadjiev. He directly accused Armenia of lying and misinformation, and said that the Armenian military is trying to misinform and not present voluminous information to the public and the world.

Yesterday we informed you about the shot down Armenian Su-25 from a Turkish F-16, and according to initial information it was not clear where exactly it was shot down. Later, various reports emerged that this had happened over Armenia or in Armenian airspace.

From the very beginning of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, various military experts have said that Turkey’s participation in this war, whether direct or not, will have a major impact on it, especially in favor of Baku, and it is even likely that this participation will changed the inclination of the scales in favor of Azerbaijan.

The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh escalated on September 27, active clashes are taking place in the disputed territory. Martial law was introduced in Azerbaijan and Armenia, and mobilization was announced. Both sides reported killed and wounded, including civilians. In Baku, they announced the control of several Karabakh villages and strategic heights. Yerevan also reports about the shelling of the territory of Armenia.

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Azerbaijan and Armenia have been in conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh since February 1988, when the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region announced its withdrawal from the Azerbaijan SSR.

During the armed conflict in 1992-1994, the Azerbaijani side lost control of Nagorno-Karabakh and the seven areas adjacent to it. Since 1992, negotiations have been conducted within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group on a peaceful settlement of the conflict. The group is led by co-chairs – Russia, USA and France.

In 1994, Azerbaijan, Armenia and the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, through the mediation of Russia, signed the Bishkek Armistice Protocol. At the same time, military operations did not stop there, which periodically renewed.

The most significant exacerbation of the conflict was the four-day war of 2016. Then hundreds of soldiers on both sides became victims.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, during a meeting with the President of Azerbaijan last year, called for a rhetoric that would go against the fundamental principles endorsed by both sides and enshrined in the UN Charter and the Helsinki Final Act when resolving the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh.

At the same time, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry admitted that much more needs to be done to achieve a long-term political settlement.

Source: https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2020/09/30/russia-to-turkey-if-your-fighter-shot-down-the-armenian-su-25-we-will-intervene/

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Key Point: Ankara’s revived interest in Russian military hardware comes during a time of acute strain in Turkey-NATO relations, an opening that the Kremlin has effectively been working to exploit.

Turkey’s plans to purchase the Russian S-400 missile system marked a major shift in Ankara’s defense orientation, eliciting a sharp response from Washington. Nonetheless, the S-400 deal barely scratches the surface of the blooming Turkey-Russia defense relationship and the threat that it poses to NATO’s military coherence.

The Kremlin and Rosoboronexport– Russia’s state arms exporting agency—are seeking to capitalize on the political goodwill from the S-400 sale with several other high-profile contracts, including Russian jet fighters and next-generation missile defense system. When the US defense department suspended F-35 transfers to Ankara “pending an unequivocal Turkish decision to forego delivery of the S-400” early last month, Russian and western defense commentators speculated that Russia would pounce with a snap Su-35 offer. It now appears, however, that Moscow has its sights set on a bigger deal. In an interview given to Turkish state media, Rostec chief Sergei Chemezov suggested that Moscow is open to inking a Su-57 contract:  “These fifth-generation Russian fighter jets [the Su-57] have outstanding qualities, and show promise for export.”

As if to lay on Moscow’s intent even more thickly, Chemezov added that Russia is “ready to cooperate” on a potential Su-57 sale so as to “support Turkey’s desire to develop its own defense industry.” This proposal echoes similar Russian overtures to China and India, reflecting Russia’s export-driven developmental strategy for the Su-57 platform. Turkish President Recep Erdoğan’s government has yet to comment on the prospect of purchasing the Su-57. The question of time preference—that is, how long they are willing to wait to receive their order—may figure prominently into Turkey’s decision. Given that the Su-57 is just now beginning to be slowly serially produced, the Turkish Air Force is unlikely to receive their first batch of Su-57’s until at least early 2020. Meanwhile, the F-35 is not only widely available for export but produced, in significant part, by Turkish firms based in Turkey.

Ankara has been less ambivalent in expressing its interest in Russia’s upcoming S-500 air defense system. “We concluded the S-400 issue, signed a deal with the Russians and will start co-production. Later, we may work on S-500s,” announced Erdogan in a recent interview. To be sure, such a purchase wouldn’t be without a clear military rationale. Having already bought into the Russian missile defense ecosystem with the S-400, it could make technical sense for Turkey to consider upgrading to its successor for the sake of systems coherency if nothing else.

Even so, the Turkish defense sector is well versed in leveraging Russia and the west against one another in pursuit of favorable import terms. For Ankara, these sorts of glib proclamations may be less of a concrete statement of intent to buy Russian hardware and more of a bargaining chip in future arms negotiations NATO. As with the successfully negotiated S-400 contract, Rosoboronexport can be expected to offer the S-500 at a fraction of the price commanded by its American counterparts.

The American defense industry is not wholly without countermeasures against Russia’s aggressive pricing model; in particular, Washington can offer Ankara the competing Patriot missile system at a discount. This is easier said than done, however; prospective subsidies must be negotiated with Raytheon (Patriot’s manufacturer), and a selective concession to Turkey may set a dangerous precedent for prospective F-35 clients to seize upon.

The post Could Turkey’s Purchase of Russian Stealth Fighters Spell the End of NATO? first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

In this photo provided by the Syrian Civil Defense White Helmets, which has been authenticated based on its contents and other AP reporting, Syrian White Helmet civil defense workers carry a victim next to a destroyed house that was hit by Russian airstrikes, in Maaret Musreen village, in Idlib province, Syria, Thursday, March 5, 2020. An airstrike on a rebel-held village in northwestern Syria early Thursday. (Syrian Civil Defense White Helmets via AP)

This photo provided by the Syrian Civil Defense White Helmets, which has been authenticated based on its contents and other AP reporting, a Syrian White Helmet civil defense worker carries a child victim after Russian airstrikes hit Maaret Musreen village, in Idlib province, Syria, Thursday, March 5, 2020. An airstrike on a rebel-held village in northwestern Syria early Thursday. (Syrian Civil Defense White Helmets via AP)

In this photo provided by the Syrian Civil Defense White Helmets, which has been authenticated based on its contents and other AP reporting, Syrian White Helmet civil defense workers carry a victim next of destroyed houses hit by Russian airstrikes, in Maaret Musreen village, in Idlib province, Syria, Thursday, March 5, 2020. An airstrike on a rebel-held village in northwestern Syria early Thursday. (Syrian Civil Defense White Helmets via AP)

Russian President Vladimir Putin, second from right, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, center, talk during their meeting in the Kremlin, in Moscow, Russia, Thursday, March 5, 2020. The Turkish and Russian leaders are holding talks in Moscow aimed at avoiding pitting their nations against each other, during hostilities in northwestern Syria. (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin, Pool)

A migrant child walks next to a tent in Edirne near the Turkish-Greek border on Thursday, March 5, 2020. Turkey said Thursday it would deploy special forces along its land border with Greece to prevent Greek authorities from pushing back migrants trying to cross into Europe after Turkey declared its previously guarded gateways to Europe open. (AP Photo/Emrah Gurel)

Note: 5 more photos available at the source.

MOSCOW (AP) — The presidents of Russia and Turkey said they reached agreement on a cease-fire to begin at midnight Thursday in northwestern Syria, where escalating fighting had threatened to put forces from the two countries into direct conflict.

The deal struck by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also would set up a security corridor along a key east-west highway in Idlib province.

Putin voiced hope the agreement will serve as a “good basis for ending the fighting in the Idlib de-escalation zone, put an end to suffering of civilian population and contain a growing humanitarian crisis.”

The agreement appears to achieve Russia’s key goal of allowing the Syrian government to secure control over strategic highways essential for consolidating its grip on the country after a devastating nine-year war.

But in a nod to Turkey’s interests, the deal also puts the brakes on Syrian President Bashar Assad’s push to reclaim control over all of Idlib province, the last opposition-controlled region that borders Turkey.

Erdogan said he and Putin agreed to help refugees return to their homes. More than 900,000 people have been displaced by the fighting since Assad’s forces began an offensive in December backed by Russian airstrikes.

Both leaders had underlined the need for an agreement at the start of the Kremlin talks, which lasted more than six hours. One goal had been to prevent damaging their bilateral relations and blossoming trade.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres “takes note” of the cease-fire agreement and hopes it will lead “to an immediate and lasting cessation of hostilities that ensures the protection of civilians in northwest Syria, who have already endured enormous suffering,” U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said.

Guterres also called for a return to the U.N.-facilitated political process, aimed at ending the nine-year conflict, Dujarric said.

Until the latest crisis, Putin and Erdogan had managed to coordinate their interests in Syria even though Moscow backed Assad while Ankara supported the government’s foes. Both Russia and Turkey wanted to avoid a showdown but the sharply conflicting interests in Idlib province made it difficult to negotiate a mutually acceptable compromise.

The Syrian offensive in Idlib has resulted in Turkey sending in thousands of troops to repel the Syrian army. Clashes on the ground and in the air have left dozens dead on both sides. Russia, which has helped Assad reclaim most of the country’s territory, has signaled it won’t sit by while Turkey routs his troops.

The fighting also has pushed nearly 1 million Syrian civilians toward Turkey, which already hosts more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees. Erdogan responded by opening Turkey’s gateway to Europe in an apparent bid to persuade the West to offer more support to Ankara.

He has frequently threatened to open Turkey’s borders to Europe, maintaining that the European Union has not upheld its end of a more than 6 billion-euro deal designed to stem the flow of migrants after more than 1 million people entered the EU in 2015.

Putin discussed the situation in Idlib with European Council head Charles Michel, who met the Erdogan in Ankara on Wednesday. The Kremlin said Michel informed Putin about the EU’s efforts to block the flow of migrants.

Putin offered Erdogan his condolences over Turkish military losses but noted that Syrian troops also suffered heavy casualties. Turkey’s Defense Ministry announced that two more of its soldiers were killed Thursday, raising the number slain in Syria since the start of February to 60.

“The world’s eyes are on us,” Erdogan had said. “The steps we will take, the right decisions we will take here today will help ease (concerns in) the region and our countries.”

After Turkey had downed several Syrian jets, Moscow warned Ankara on Sunday that its aircraft would be unsafe if they enter Syrian airspace.

Opposition activists in Idlib blamed Russia for Thursday’s strike on a rebel-held village that they said killed at least 15 people, including children, and wounded several others. The Russian military had no immediate comment, but it has denied similar claims by insisting it hasn’t targeted residential areas.

The fighting in Idlib is the most severe test of Russia-Turkey ties since Turkey’s downed a Russian warplane near the Syrian border in November 2015. Russia responded then with sweeping economic sanctions, cutting the flow of its tourists to Turkey and banning most Turkish exports — a punishment that eventually forced Turkey to back off.

Turkey can’t afford a replay of that costly crisis, much less a military conflict with a nuclear power, but it has a strong bargaining position. Moscow needs Ankara as a partner in a Syrian settlement, and Russia’s supply routes for its forces in Syria lie through the Turkish Straits.

Moscow also hopes to use Ankara in its standoff with the West. Last year, Turkey became the first NATO country to take delivery of sophisticated Russian air defense missile systems, angering Washington. Turkey has put its deployment on hold amid the crisis in Idlib.

The talks in Moscow marked the 10th meeting in just over a year between Putin and Erdogan, who call each other “dear friend” and have polished a fine art of bargaining.

In October, they agreed to deploy their forces across Syria’s northeastern border to fill the void left by President Donald Trump’s abrupt withdrawal of U.S. forces. Before that, they had negotiated deals that saw opposition fighters from various areas in Syria move into Idlib, and in 2018 carved out a de-escalation zone in Idlib.

They blamed one another for the collapse of the Idlib deal, with Moscow holding Ankara responsible for letting al-Qaida-linked militants launch attacks from the area and Turkey accusing Moscow of failing to rein in Assad.

The Russian and Turkish foreign ministers said Thursday’s agreement involves a cease-fire to be enforced starting at midnight along existing battle lines. The deal also envisages setting up a 12-kilometer (7-mile) security corridor along the M4 highway to be jointly patrolled by Russian and Turkish troops, starting March 15.

A security corridor along the M4 that crosses Idlib to reach the Mediterranean province of Latakia, where Russia has its main base, will help solidify Assad’s gains and strengthen his control.

Earlier this year, Assad retook control of the M5 highway linking Damascus with Aleppo, the country’s commercial capital. As part of their latest offensive, Assad’s forces have pushed back the militants who were blocking it.

Earlier this week, Russian military police deployed to the strategic town of Saraqeb, sitting on the junction of the two highways, to ward off any Turkish attempt to retake it.

In the deal with Erdogan, Putin appeared to accept the presence of Turkey-backed militants in areas alongside the border and put brakes for now on Assad’s attempts to claim full control over Idlib. That compromise will allow Turkey to secure its stake in Syria and prevent refugees from fleeing across the border.

Soner Cagaptay, an expert on Turkey at the Washington Institute, said the agreement “freezes the conflict on the ground.”

The fighting was not expected to flare up again until “the next moment when Putin feels emboldened enough to push further,” Cagaptay said.

For his part, Erdogan avoided a situation where Turkey’s borders would be overwhelmed by refugees, while also preventing a rupture with Russia, the analyst said.

Cagaptay also said Assad did not emerge the winner.

“His military capabilities have been undermined by Turkey,” he said. “We witnessed a NATO country pummeling Assad’s third-rate army.”

Konstantin Kosachev, head of the Russian upper house’s foreign affairs committee, hailed the deal as a compromise that respected security interests of each country.

“The only alternative to the talks would be trying to sort out the differences on the battlefield, and neither side needs that,” he said on Facebook.

___

Fraser reported from Ankara, Turkey.

Source: https://apnews.com/e70a96d67ec37e4908a71adab85bc096

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Ironically the escalation comes in the so-called de-escalation zone in Syria’s Idlib province bordering Turkey. The de-escalation zone was set up following talks between Turkey and Russia in the Russian city of Sochi in 2018.

The latest escalation started when Syria backed by Russian air support earlier this month launched an offensive to take control of Idlib and declare the final victory. Its earlier attempts to take the province and finish the war were stalled under Turkish protests.  But this time, Syria appears to be determined.  In the Syrian attacks, already more than a dozen Turkish soldiers manning military outposts in Idlib have perished.  Turkey was furious with both Syria and Russia.

As the crisis escalated, the United States sent a special envoy to Ankara in an apparent attempt to drag Turkey away from Russia.  Also visiting Ankara at the same time was a Russian delegation but Turkey stood its ground and insisted on a Syrian withdrawal from Idlib – a demand Russia was not willing to take to its Syrian ally.
As the escalation threatens to spark a confrontation between Russia and Turkey, Erdogan told Parliament on Wednesday that Turkey was determined to push the Syrian troops beyond Turkish observation posts by the end of February. “We will do this by any means necessary, by air or ground,” he warned.

The warning underscores the hyper volatility of the Middle East. No region in the world has seen so many wars for so long a period.

The United Nations has miserably failed to bring about at least a temporary ceasefire to any of the conflicts raging in the Middle East, though in the preamble to its charter the world body proclaims it was set up to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war.

Paradoxically, Syria is the antithesis of the United Nations. More than a dozen countries directly and scores of others indirectly are present in this conflict.

Directly involved in the conflict are Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, the United States, Russia, and Israel.

The US claims it came to Syria to fight ISIS, but it seems to be in league with ISIS because they both want the Syrian regime toppled.

There is conflict and there is cooperation, at least, tacitly.
Nowhere does the aphorism ‘one’s terrorist is another’s freedom fighter’ make more sense than in Syria. In the fight against ISIS, the US has partnered with Syrian Kurds whom Washington’s Nato ally Turkey condemns as terrorists.

The conflict in Syria was not fully homegrown. It was largely foreign made. It erupted in the backdrop of Arab Spring protests that gave false hope to the region’s people that they would soon be empowered by democracy. But the rich and politically influential Gulf nations made use of the Arab Spring agitations to achieve their own foreign policy goals. In a violent overthrow, they ousted Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi.  They wanted to repeat the regime change formula in Syria also but got stumped.

These outside forces wanted to achieve their geopolitical and geo-economic goals even if it led to hundreds of thousands of deaths, millions of displacements and untold human suffering. All they wanted was to check Iran and deny it a contiguous land mobility through Syria all the way to South Lebanon where the powerful Iranian-backed Hizbollah militia hold sway.  They were also interested in a pipeline project across Syria for them to send their oil and gas to the European market, dominated by Russia with a 60 percent market share.

By arming and financing the Syrian rebellion and covertly supporting ISIS and al-Qaeda groups, the Gulf nations and the West almost succeeded in toppling the Assad regime, but Russia’s entry and the intervention of Iran together with Hezbollah changed the war’s course in Assad’s favor.

To this crowded space, also sending troops was the US, ostensibly to fight ISIS, but its adventure almost set off a major confrontation with Russia when in a four-hour battle in May 2018, US forces killed more than 100 Russian paramilitary forces.

Russia was angry but was prudent enough not to let the crisis escalate into an all-out war between the world’s top two nuclear powers. Another major incident where Russia exercised constraint was when Turkey shot down a Russian military plane. Russia’s diplomacy paid off. Turkey, which hosts some 3.5 million Syrian refugees and supports the Syrian rebel group Free Syrian Army (FS), became Russia’s partner in Syria. So much so, Turkey was seen drifting away from the US orbit.

The US-Turkey relations soured when Turkey suspected it had a role in the 2016 botched military coup and later when the US in the fight against the ISIS joined hands with Syrian Kurds, whom Turkey regards as terrorists. Last year Turkey, defying US objections, bought S400 missiles from Russia.

The Turkey-Russia partnership is now falling apart. One is insisting that the other fulfills its part of the Sochi deal, according to which, Turkey is allowed to set up military outposts in the Idlib de-escalation zone but with Syria’s permission, while Turkey will ensure that the rebels are neutralized.

Russia accuses Turkey of not fulfilling its part of the deal and aggravating the crisis by arbitrarily setting up a buffer zone along the border with Syria.

These developments, together with Syria’s latest military gains which have enabled it to take control of a major highway connecting Damascus and Aleppo, have killed the Sochi agreement and the Astana process whereby Russia sought to bring the Syrian conflict’s stakeholders to the peace table.

A new regional conflict is escalating fast, with Turkey sending in more troops to Syria while Russia and Syria are determined to wipe out the rebels from their last stronghold.  Can diplomacy prevent the coming conflict?

Source: http://www.dailymirror.lk/opinion/Can-diplomacy-prevent-Turkey-Russia-clash-in-Syria/172-183059

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Moscow said earlier on Tuesday that all attacks on Russian and Syrian government forces in Idlib should stop and that agreements it had struck with Turkey on the conflict there had to be upheld.

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Russian and Turkish officials were to set to discuss cooperation on Su-35 and Su-67 fighter jets, aviation engines, and electronic warfare systems, a Russian official said yesterday. Talking to reporters on the sidelines of the International Aviation and Space Salon MAKS-2019 in Moscow, Dmitry Shugayev, head of Russia’s Federal Military-Technical Cooperation Service, said he was going to discuss the issue with his Turkish counterpart İsmail Demir. “Undoubtedly, important talks today will be with my Turkish counterpart, the head of the Defense Industry Department under the President of the Republic of Turkey, Mr. Demir. We will continue to discuss our topics on the agenda: the S-400, of course, also will touch on how we will move forward on Su-35, the possible supply of Su-57,” Shugayev said.

He also said they will discuss cooperation in aviation, engines and electronic warfare. On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin introduced the latest achievements in the Russian aviation and space industry to his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Putin showed Erdoğan the Su-57 fighter jet at the air show, the latest generation Russian stealth aircraft. The leaders also examined Su-35 fighter jets, the Ka-52 military helicopter, and the Mi-38 transport helicopter.

At the news conference following the meeting, Putin and Erdoğan said that they had discussed possibilities of cooperation and joint production in aviation and electronic warfare industries.

Erdoğan was in Moscow on Tuesday for a daylong trip. Turkish and Russian leaders held a meeting to discuss bilateral relations as well as regional and international developments, particularly Syria.

Source: https://www.dailysabah.com/defense/2019/08/29/russia-turkey-mull-cooperation-in-electronic-warfare

The post Russia, Turkey mull cooperation in electronic warfare first appeared on Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.

An emerging Russia-Turkey alliance in defense and energy will have long-term effects on the Middle East and Israel. This comes in the wake of Turkey acquiring Russia’s S-400 air defense system and the development of the TurkStream pipeline, which stretches across the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey.

As Turkey and Russia grow closer, they inevitably also grow closer in their efforts to end the Syrian conflict, as well as other regional and international issues. This has led Turkey away from its traditional alliance with the US, and focused on a new alliance structure with Russia and other allies, for instance, a Turkey-Qatar and Russia-Iran alliance, in which they share certain interests. In the long term, a closer block of Russia-Syria-Iran-Turkey-Qatar may emerge, alongside other powerful states such as China, India, and central Asian actors, some of which seek to challenge the US.

This has long-term implications for Israel because Israel is a close US ally that opposes the rising power of Iran in the Middle East. Israel enjoyed close relations with Turkey up until the mid-2000s when things soured under Turkey’s current administration. Russia and Israel enjoy good relations today, but what happens if their interests begin to not coincide in places like Syria, where tensions already exist?

Some recent headlines represent the growing alliance. The National Interest says that Turkey stockpiled F-16 parts prior to acquiring the S-400, knowing US relations would suffer. Russia has recently restored some visa-free travel from Turkey. Russia and Turkey are discussing joint production of civilian aircraft and helicopters. Tass News says that they may also begin joint exploration for energy in the Mediterranean.

Taken together, it is clear that a defense and energy alliance is growing. Israel has its own energy interests in the Mediterranean and its own defense relationships. The long-term effect of the Russia-Turkey alliance is in its infancy, but joint defense work and energy exploration should be taken more seriously by neighbors in the Middle East.

Seth Frantzman is The Jerusalem Post’s op-ed editor, a Writing Fellow at the Middle East Forum, and a founder of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis.

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Source: https://www.meforum.org/59047/russia-and-turkey-are-becoming-allies

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